Global Catastrophic Risks 2017 INTRODUCTION GLOBAL CHALLENGES ANNUAL REPORT: GCF & THOUGHT LEADERS SHARING WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ON GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS 2017 The views expressed in this report are those of the authors. Their statements are not necessarily endorsed by the affiliated organisations or the Global Challenges Foundation. ANNUAL REPORT TEAM Carin Ism, project leader Elinor Hägg, creative director Julien Leyre, editor in chief Kristina Thyrsson, graphic designer Ben Rhee, lead researcher Erik Johansson, graphic designer Waldemar Ingdahl, researcher Jesper Wallerborg, illustrator Elizabeth Ng, copywriter Dan Hoopert, illustrator CONTRIBUTORS Nobuyasu Abe Maria Ivanova Janos Pasztor Japanese Ambassador and Commissioner, Associate Professor of Global Governance Senior Fellow and Executive Director, C2G2 Japan Atomic Energy Commission; former UN and Director, Center for Governance and Initiative on Geoengineering, Carnegie Council Under-Secretary General for Disarmament Sustainability, University of Massachusetts Affairs Boston; Global Challenges Foundation Anders Sandberg Ambassador Senior Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Anthony Aguirre Institute Co-founder, Future of Life Institute Angela Kane Senior Fellow, Vienna Centre for Disarmament Tim Spahr Mats Andersson and Non-Proliferation; visiting Professor, CEO of NEO Sciences, LLC, former Director Vice chairman, Global Challenges Foundation Sciences Po Paris; former High Representative of the Minor Planetary Center, Harvard- for Disarmament Affairs at the United Nations Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics Seth Baum Executive Director, Global Catastrophic Risk Victoria Krakovna Stephen Sparks Institute Co-founder, Future of Life Institute Professor, School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol Kennette Benedict Richard Mallah Senior Advisor, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Director, AI Projects, Future of Life Institute Leena Srivastava Vice Chancellor, TERI University, New Delhi Ariel Conn Wanjira Mathai Director, Media and Outreach, Future of Life Director, wPower Partnership in Nairobi; Chair, Anote Tong Institute Green Belt Movement and Wangari Maathai former President of Kiribati; Global Challenges Foundation; Global Challenges Foundation Foundation Ambassador Allan Dafoe Ambassador Assistant Professor of Political Science, Yale Max Tegmark University; Research Associate, Future of Malini Mehra President and Co-founder, Future of Life Humanity Institute, University of Oxford Chief Executive, GLOBE International Institute secretariat; Global Challenges Foundation Eric Drexler Ambassador Roey Tzezana Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute Futurist, researcher at Blavatnik and Oxford Martin Senior Fellow, Oxford Philip Osano Interdisciplinary Cyber Research Centre (ICRC), Martin School, Oxford University Research Fellow, Natural Resources and Tel Aviv University, affiliated with Humanity Ecosystems, Stockholm Environment Institute Centred Robotics Initiative (HCRI), Brown Owen Gaffney University Director, International media and strategy, Martin Rees Stockholm Resilience Centre UK Astronomer Royal, and Co-founder, Raymond Zilinskas Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Director, Chemical & Biological Weapons David Heymann Risk Nonproliferation Program, James Martin Head and Senior Fellow, Centre on Global Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Health Security, Chatham House, Professor Johan Rockström Middlebury Institute of International Studies of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London Professor and Director, Stockholm Resilience at Monterey School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Centre 2 Global Challenges Annual Report 2017 THE GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOUNDATION works to incite deeper under- standing of the global risks that threaten humanity and catalyse ideas to tackle them. Rooted in a scientific analysis of risk, the Foundation brings together the brightest minds from academia, politics, business and civil society to forge transformative approaches to secure a better future for all. Global Challenges Annual Report 2017 3 4 Global Challenges Annual Report 2017 Contents Foreword 7 What is a Global Catastrophic Risk? 8 Global Challenges Foundation Annual Report Ambassadors’ Preface 10 Why care now? 12 Taxonomy 14 Weapons of Mass Destruction 16 Nuclear warfare 18 Biological and chemical warfare 24 Catastrophic climate change 28 Ecological collapse 36 Pandemics 44 Asteroid impact 48 Supervolcanic eruption 52 Geoengineering 56 Artificial intelligence 60 Unknown risks 66 Global catastrophic risk insights 72 New models of nuclear war risk assessment 74 Climate tipping points 78 Recent progress in AI and efforts to ensure its safety 84 Endnotes 86 Global Challenges Annual Report 2017 5 6 Global Challenges Annual Report 2017 FOREWORD Dear reader, his is the third Annual A New Shape has been launched. Report on Global Offering USD 5 million as a prize sum, Risk from the Global we are challenging thinkers from all Challenges Foundation. over the world to propose models for We have worked with more effective global collaboration in Tleading academic experts to describe order to address the greatest risks to the greatest threats to humanity. In humanity. this year’s report, we present updates to previously published information In conclusion, I would like to about global risks, but also extend extend my warmest thanks to the content, in particular by offering everyone who has contributed descriptions of official bodies and to this publication in various regulatory frameworks currently in ways. Let us hope that the place to manage those risks. knowledge and the insights The report ends with three articles shared here can become in which three scientists give an fertile ground for new, account of the latest state of research productive ideas, and a in three different areas: tipping discussion about more points that may be triggered by global effective forms of global warming, the risk of nuclear war, and cooperation. the study of artificial intelligence. The group of scientists recruited as authors and reviewers on this annual report is considerably broader than in previous years, both in numbers and geographically. Understanding global catastrophic risks is important. Without an intimate knowledge of these threats, we cannot even begin to work on models that can help us manage, reduce and, preferably, eliminate them more rapidly, effectively and equitably. It is a great satisfaction for me to LASZLO SZOMBATFALVY announce that the competition for Chairman of the Global Challenges Foundation the Global Challenges Prize 2017 – Global Challenges Annual Report 2017 7 WHAT IS A GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISK? Level of risk = probability x impact e fret about globally, causing such devastation familiar risks that even one such incident would – air crashes, be too many. These potentially carcinogens catastrophic threats surely deserve in food, low expert analysis. It’s crucial to Wradiation doses, etc – and assess which can be dismissed they’re all intensively firmly as science fiction, and which studied. But we’re in could conceivably become real; to denial about some consider how to enhance resilience emergent threats – the against the more credible ones; potential downsides and to guard against technological of fast-developing new developments that could run out of technologies and the risk control. This topic should be higher of crossing environmental on the international agenda. It’s a ‘tipping points’. These may wise mantra that ‘The unfamiliar seem improbable, but in our is not the same as the improbable’. interconnected world, And that’s why the topics addressed their consequences in these pages are so timely and could cascade deserve to be widely read. MARTIN REES UK Astronomer Royal, and Co-founder, Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk 8 Global Challenges Annual Report 2017 WHAT IS A GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISK? It’s crucial to assess which risks can be dismissed firmly as science fiction, and which could conceivably become real. Global Challenges Annual Report 2017 9 Global Challenges Foundation Annual Report Ambassadors’ Preface anaging global risks requires for ground breaking ideas from change makers in global governance. Over the past all spheres: policy makers, academics, think tank 100 years we have created a series analysts, NGO activists, business leaders, scientists, of international institutions to or tech innovators. It is an ambitious bid to remodel provide a forum for negotiation, global cooperation, to reshape the very architecture Mguidelines on behavior, and tools for implementation of global governance. of commitments. Our understanding of risks and We seek ideas that will help break down old silos their causes and consequences has improved and lay aside narrow national and political interests, significantly. Connectivity has increased that build on lessons from the successes and the dramatically, allowing us to witness and project failures in global cooperation to date, and that impacts, engage with people across the world, and engage new voices from every quarter. create communities of change makers. Ultimately, our ability to imagine, initiate, and implement The response to the New Shape challenge has change has magnified and multiplied. inspired and motivated us. People from every corner of the planet have expressed genuine commitment We now stand at a crossroads. The decisions and in imagining a new system and tapped a well actions we take today will shape our future for years to of creativity. Over the past months, the Global