DEFENCE, FOREIGN POLICY AND SECURITY RUSSIA‘S INFLUENCE AND PRESENCE IN LITHUANIA LINAS KOJALA - WOJCIECH JAKÓBIK www.europeanreform.org @europeanreform A Brussels-based free market, euro-realist think-tank and publisher, established in 2010 under the patronage of Baroness Thatcher. We have satellite offices in London, Rome and Warsaw. New Direction - The Foundation for European Reform is registered in Belgium as a non-for-profit organisation (ASBL) and is partly funded by the European Parliament. REGISTERED OFFICE: Rue du Trône, 4, 1000 Bruxelles, Belgium. EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Naweed Khan. www.europeanreform.org @europeanreform The European Parliament and New Direction assume no responsibility for the opinions expressed in this publication. Sole liability rests with the author. Russia‘s influence and presence in Lithuania Linas Kojala - Wojciech Jakóbik AUTHORS TABLE OF CONTENTS EDITORIAL 7 INTRODUCTION 9 1 HISTORY OF LITHUANIAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONSHIP 11 1.1 INTERWAR PERIOD 12 1.2 SOVIET OCCUPATION 13 1.3 RESTORATION OF INDEPENDENCE 14 1.4 ETHNIC RUSSIANS IN LITHUANIA 14 2 FROM HISTORY TO TODAY: RUSSIA’S INFLUENCE 16 Linas Kojala 2.1 SOCIOCULTURAL FACTORS, PUBLIC PERCEPTION AND DISINFORMATION 16 2.2 ECONOMY 20 2.3 ENERGY 21 2.4 POLITICS 22 Wojciech Jakóbik 2.5 MILITARY 23 CONCLUSIONS 25 RECOMMENDATIONS 25 CASE STUDY JAK ROSJA WYKORZYSTUJE SWOJE WPŁYWY W SEKTORZE ENERGETYCZNYM 26 ANNEX 1 OBSZERNE STRESZCZENIE RAPORTU DEPARTAMENTU BEZPIECZEŃSTWA REPUBLIKI LITEWSKIEJ 30 ANNEX 2 RUSSIA AS A THREAT TO THE STATES BEING IN THE ZONE OF INFLUENCE 42 ANNEX 3 POPULATION AND LANGUAGES IN THE LITHUANIA, 43 INCLUDING RUSSIAN MINORITY AND RUSSIAN LANGUAGE ANNEX 4 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 44 4 New Direction - The Foundation for European Reform www.europeanreform.org @europeanreform 5 Russia‘s influence and presence in Lithuania Linas Kojala - Wojciech Jakóbik EDITORIAL its former ‘soviet republics’ and its attempts to undermine European unity through energy interests, political funding, and media (dis)information. Similar to its efforts in Bulgaria, the Russian regime is using gas exports as a political weapon in the Baltic Tomasz Poręba States in order to undermine European solidarity by creating political and economic rifts. As the Tomasz Poręba is a Member of the European Baltic States form an energy island, traditionally Parliament and President of New Direction – The Foundation for European Reform. heavily reliant on Russian imports, they have little manoeuvring space to lead an autonomous and independent energy policy. With regard to (dis)information, Russia exerts a firm hese three reports by New Direction on influence by ‘generously’ funding Baltic media outlets the Russian regime’s influence in the Baltic at both the local and national levels. Ethnic minorities T States come in a very important time period, still use Russian media (mainly TV channels) as their especially in light of the current debates on lifting main source of information. There is a strong correlation sanctions against Russia, the increase in polls of between time spent watching Russian TV channels and political parties being neutral towards Russia, and the perception of Putin’s policies in a more positive light. The never-ending hybrid war in Ukraine led by President recent propaganda multimedia project called Sputnik Putin. Using its old divide et impera tactics, Russia poses a threat to the Baltic States’ information security is challenging the unity of the EU Member States by and challenges their sovereignty. taking full advantage of different factors, including economic links and support from political parties with Moreover, due to historical ties, it is much more difficult especially strong ties to the Kremlin. to grasp the Russian regime’s influence in Baltic States than it is to grasp its influence in other EU Member It is time we look closer at Putin’s game, a big part States. The Kremlin can play the Soviet nostalgia card of which is a conflict in the East of Ukraine, and react as a way to influence public opinion. The same logic is before it is too late. As stated in these New Direction behind the funding of political parties which are mostly studies, ‘at the heat of the fighting in Donbass in early supported by Russian-speaking populations. 2014, 87 per cent of Lithuanians admitted fear that Russia might again occupy their country’. Last but not least, the Baltic States’ vulnerabilities in the case of military aggression should not be treated If Ukrainian conflict teaches us something, it is that as purely hypothetical. The last NATO summit held in the Russian regime has recently diverted much of Warsaw drew special attention to the Suwalki gap, a its resources and focus from mobilising hard power key weakness in the area’s military defence. in protecting its interests to soft power, including funding media outlets and political parties. After the study on Russia’s influence in Bulgaria, this new research by New Direction should be used by policy The Baltic cases precisely identify this new aspect of advisers and politicians to better understand the Russian Putin’s influence across the EU. These studies describe regime’s behaviour and reshape their policy towards in detail the ongoing game played by the Russian Russia. Before we are able to compete externally, we regime and neatly sums up its current policy towards must first establish internal sovereignty. • Tomasz Poręba 6 New Direction - The Foundation for European Reform www.europeanreform.org @europeanreform 7 Russia‘s influence and presence in Lithuania Linas Kojala - Wojciech Jakóbik INTRODUCTION ussian influence encompasses all aspects of should be prolonged until the Minsk Agreement is Lithuanian society. From schools, where pupils fulfilled.3 R learn about the impact of Soviet occupation of Lithuania in aftermath of World War II, to mass media, On the other hand, while these developments pose which focuses on observing current geopolitical struggles; a challenge, it is also a wake-up call for Lithuanian from businesses, for which Russia is still an important society and many of country’s Western partners, trading partner, to ordinary citizens, many of whom could which led to a better understanding of the lasting speak Russian and have at least some links to its culture. sensitivities of the Baltic region with regards to Russia. NATO’s recent decision to deploy multinational Both historic grievances and recent Kremlin’s troops in the Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland4 is incursion to Ukraine make matters even more an example of that changed perception. complicated. At the heat of the fighting in Donbass in early 2014, 87 per cent of Lithuanians admitted These tensions go along with the fact that the second fear that Russia might again occupy their country.1 biggest national minority in Lithuania is Russians, with Lithuanian State Security Department reports almost 5 per cent of total population.5 Fortunately, recent that “the greatest threat to national security international crises and political confrontations seem not in Lithuania is posed by Russia’s imperialistic to have any impact on their daily lives or relationship ambitions, aggressive foreign policy, and readiness with ethnic Lithuanians. Therefore, there is a common to use military force”.2 After all, Russian political saying that Lithuanians are hostile to Vladimir Putin’s elite still uses the concept of “near abroad” (or, policies, but not to Russians as a nation – at least when sometimes even more openly, “zone of influence”). historic or geopolitical topics are bypassed. Supposedly encompassing all former members of the Soviet Union, it forms a neighbouring region Hence, there is a need both to understand and of intentions and specific interests for Kremlin. observe a broad composition of factors, which Lithuania – a member of European Union and NATO shapes Lithuanian-Russian relationship, with a special – is still a part of it, at least to some extent. Various attention to areas in which Kremlin could use its instruments, from cultural to political, are being used strength to have a substantial impact in Lithuania. It is to maintain it. Hence it is no surprise that President being determined by variety of factors, from historic Dalia Grybauskaitė publicly acknowledged Russia’s circumstances to infrastructural linkages. As the aggression and maintained that the economic analysis shows, the overall impact is being reduced, sanctions on Kremlin at European Union’s level but remains strong in some specific areas. • 1 87 proc. lietuvių tiki, kad Rusija gali vėl pulti Lietuvą, March 24, 2014 <http://www.veidas.lt/87-proc-lietuviu-tiki-kad-rusija-gali-vel-pulti-lietuva> 2 State Security Department of Lithuania, Annual Threat Assessment 2015 <http://www.vsd.lt/Files/Documents/636035032005780000.pdf> 3 Lithuania’s president: ‘Russia is terrorizing its neighbors and using terrorist methods’, September 24, 2014 <https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ lithuanias-president-russia-is-terrorizing-its-neighbors-and-using-terrorist-methods/2014/09/24/eb32b9fc-4410-11e4-b47c-f5889e061e5f_story.html> 4 Four NATO battalions to go to eastern Europe to deter Russia, July 9, 2016 <https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-deploy-1-000-troops-nato-battalion- poland-134305030.html> 5 Statistics Lithuania <http://osp.stat.gov.lt/en> 8 New Direction - The Foundation for European Reform www.europeanreform.org @europeanreform 9 Russia‘s influence and presence in Lithuania Linas Kojala - Wojciech Jakóbik 1 HISTORY OF LITHUANIAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONSHIP he best way to describe historic linkages with Establishment of the State of Lithuania, adopted Russia is to look at two different national holidays by Supreme Council of the Republic of Lithuania. T – days of independence – that are celebrated Lithuania was the first country of the Soviet in Lithuania. The first, February 16, marks the Act of Union to formally announce its independence, Independence of Lithuania, which was signed in 1918. which was lost in 1944 – and led to a domino The document restored Lithuania’s statehood, which chain that effectively ended the USSR.