BUSINESSBUBUSINESSSINESS 53 Retail sector growth to remain steady The Philippine retail sector will remain robust over the next few years as growth intensifi es in the convenience store and online segments. he retail sector remains an important part of the local economy, accounting for 13.3% of GDP in 2013 and 11.8% Tin 1Q2014. Retail sector growth was at 6.2% in 2013 and 5.7% in 1Q2014. Retail trade also accounted to 78% of the total trade in 2013. The growth in retail will continue to be supported by strong household consumption, which is one of the largest in the world (69% of GDP compared to the 63.5% global average in 2013). The rise in consumer spending in turn is attributed to remittances from Filipinos abroad, reaching a record high of $25.1 billion in 2013. This is also supported by the Philippines’ stable economic condition, heightened spending of the younger population and rising incomes in the middle and upper classes. The current retail market is characterized by a shift from traditional units such as sari-sari stores to more organized forms like supermarkets and convenience stores. According to the Oxford Business Group report on Philippine retail trade, there are 700,000 sari-sari stores nationwide comprising 60% of the retail market Supermarket and hypermarket chains are also expanding and catering mostly to the low-income class. Sari-sari stores rapidly especially to less-served rural areas. SM Group, through are expected to remain buoyant as they provide for their niche its SM Food and Retail Group, will be putting up at least 20 market – small, local communities, but they will be facing stiffer Savemore and Hypermarket stores outside Metro Manila to add competition from convenience stores as these expand to more and to its portfolio of 193 food stores and 48 department stores. SM more towns. Research-fi rm Kantar said that convenience stores Retail is also planning to venture in the convenience store sector are growing 4 to 5 times faster than traditional ones. Moreover, through a foreign brand. Meanwhile, SM’s main competitor expansion plans of players indicate that about 4,000 to 5,000 Puregold will be constructing 25 new stores in 2014 to add convenience stores will be opening in the next 5 years (see table). to its 218 stores. Robinsons Retail, the third largest retailer, is targeting Visayas and Mindanao for 300 new stores this year. The growth in retail will continue to be supported by strong household consumption. Philippine ANALYST July 2014 54 BUSINESS Supermarket and hypermarket chains are expanding rapidly especially to less- served rural areas. EXPANSION PLANS IN THE CONVENIENCE STORE SEGMENT Lawson Inc. - Puregold 2,000 in the long-term FamilyMart Co. Ltd. 700 in 5 years 7-Eleven 950 in 3-4 years Robinsons Retail Holdings Inc. (Ministop) 330 in 2014 Source: Various press releases. INVESTMENT CLAUSES IN THE 2000 RETAIL TRADE LIBERALIZATION ACT Foreign companies (excluding retailers of luxury items) are allowed to invest in the Philippine retail business under the following terms: A minimum net worth of $200 million; Operate through a Philippine subsidiary with at least $2.5 million of paid-up capital; Have been in business for at least 5 years; Operate at least 5 stores globally, or at least 1 store with capital of at least $25 million; Invest at least $830,000 in each store in the Philippines, and; If foreign ownership exceeds 80%, divest at least 30% of the Philippine subsidiary’s equity within 8 years of starting operations through a public offer on a local stock exchange. Source: The Oxford Business Group Philippine Report 2014 and R.A. 8762, also known as “An Act Liberalizing the Retail Trade Business”. According to the Oxford Business Group, leading retail chains take away a large share of the market from small independent U.S. power fi rm to invest $2 Bn for expansion, retailers through actively acquiring smaller retail chains and storage facilities luring away sari-sari stores from other distributors. However, the reduction in smaller vendors (sari-sari stores) may mean AES Philippines Power Partners, an American power fi rm, the loss of a strong customer base for giant retailers as these will invest up to $2 billion in the Philippines to support the stores purchase their goods from supermarkets. Some areas country’s development and help stabilize power supply in where retailers could fi nd alternative growth include planned the central provinces. This is allotted for the expansion of communities where consumer-oriented youth and business its power plant in northwestern Philippines and to create process outsourcing (BPO) companies thrive as well as online power storage facilities in central Visayas. retailing. Online retailing has a niche market for gadgets such as smartphones, tablets and laptop computers. But this will inevitably AES president and chief executive offi cer Andres Gluski said expand as the worldwide trend to online buying expands. the company will spend $1.2 billion to double the current capacity The local retail sector is also expected to be more of its 600-megawatt coal-fi red power plant in Masinloc, Zambales. competitive as more foreign brands enter the market as a result The expansion of the Masinloc has already been granted its of the incoming ASEAN integration. Local players could take environmental permits, and is now undergoing consultation with advantage of franchising or partnering with foreign brands local and international banks to fi nance the project. The power using their familiarity with the market and the consumers to plant is targeted for commissioning in the 3rd quarter of 2017. their advantage. Heightened competition should also develop Aside from the expansion of its Masinloc plant, AES also plans the productivity, creativity and innovation of retail players, to install a Battery Energy Storage facility in central Visayas, where thus posting developments in brands, concepts and retail trends. there is a shortage in energy supply. This requires an investment of However, foreign investments in the retail sector remain $300 million to $500 million and is expected to support renewable limited, even with the passing of the 2000 Retail Trade energy projects in the Philippines. Data from the Department of Liberalization Act. According to the Oxford Business Group, Energy (DOE) show that this 40-megawatt (MW) battery storage the law allows big foreign retailers to operate in the country project in Negros is one of the indicative power projects for the but sets minimum limits that restrict those that can invest Visayas grid and is expected to come online by March 2015. (see list). Since the passing of the law, only around 15 foreign The energy storage facilities will be installed via lithium ion fi rms had invested in the country’s retail sector. Investments batteries, which, according to Mr. Gluski, “…work particularly are also limited by a slew of constitutional restrictions, well on islands, so we think they are very well adapted to the including the ban on ownership of land by foreigners Philippines.” The project can be completed within 12 to 18 months. and companies with greater than 40% foreign ownership. Foreign investments in the retail sector remain limited. Philippine ANALYST July 2014 BUSINESS 55 A power capacity of at least 2,500 MW is needed by 2017 to sustain the annual economic growth forecast of over 6%. Immediate action is needed to address the growing needs PROJECTED POWER RESERVE IN THE PHILIPPINES, 2014-2020 of the Philippine power industry. AES’ investment is especially 30 welcome, particularly at a time when President Aquino is seeking 25 investments in the country to help resolve the current problems 20 in power supply. More investments like this are necessary 15 to sustain the growth in the country’s GDP, and to allow this 10 growth to translate into more opportunities for the Philippines. 5 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Local cigarette fi rm under BIR probe -5 -10 The Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) is auditing the tax -15 payments of local cigarette company Mighty Corp. This was LUZON VISAYAS MINDANAO among a series of government investigations Mighty Corp. Source: Department of Energy has been facing. PROJECTED POWER RESERVE IN THE PHILIPPINES, WITHOUT The probe came amid allegations that the locally-owned COMMITTED PROJECTS, 2014-2020 tobacco company has been declaring lower production volume 20 and has been involved in illicit trade, which could have resulted 10 in foregone revenues for the government’s excise taxation efforts. 0 An earlier study from the International Tax and Investment Center -10 (ITIC) and Oxford Economics (OE) released by the Wallace -20 Business Forum, estimated that illicit consumption of cigarettes -30 in the country increased from 5.9% of total consumption in -40 2012 to 18.1% in 2013. A bulk of this was in the lower-priced -50 LUZON VISAYAS MINDANAO cigarette segment where Mighty Corp. has gained a controlling -60 consumer share since the implementation of the new tax regime. -70 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 BIR Commissioner Kim Henares said that a bureau personnel has been already assigned to monitor Mighty’s manufacturing Source: Department of Energy facilities. Results of the BIR investigation are kept confi dential, as mandated by the Tax Code which said any unlawful disclosure is subject to criminal liability. Comm. Henares also refused to tell when the investigation will be concluded. In the Philippine Energy Development Plan, the country This was not the fi rst government investigation Mighty needs to add power capacity of at least 2,500 MW by 2017 Corp. has been subjected to, as it was also under a Bureau of to sustain the annual economic growth forecast of over 6%.