Accelerating the Transition to Sustainable Mobility and Low Carbon Emissions in Panama City 2020 Deliverable 3.1 Evaluation of the Electric Bus Innovation System: Barriers to Adoption Prepared for the United Nations Industrial Development Organization and the Climate Technology Centre & Network This document was commissioned to LOGIOS, LLC by the CTCN via the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), as part of contract 3000057328. Research, interviews, data collection, analysis, and documentation under this project were conducted by LOGIOS, LLC. Reference herein, direct or indirect, to any specific commercial product or service does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement by LOGIOS, UNIDO, or CTCN. LOGIOS, LLC is a company dedicated to clean energy innovation, integration and implementation (www.logios.global). Cover photograph: Electric bus in Casco Viejo, Panama City, Panama (2018). © LOGIOS. 2 (Page intentionally left blank.) 3 Acknowledgments The work documented in this report would not have been possible without the invaluable assistance of many stakeholders in Panama, including the Ministerio de Ambiente (MiAmbiente), the Secretaría de Energía, Transporte Masivo de Panamá (MiBus), Alcaldía de Panamá, and others. The continued support and diligent assistance of Mr. Ramiro Salinas Revollo and Mr. Federico Villatico, with the Climate Technology Centre & Network (CTCN), is greatly appreciated. 4 (Page intentionally left blank.) 5 Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS 6 LIST OF FIGURES 8 LIST OF TABLES 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 11 INTRODUCTION 11 EVALUATION OF THE TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION SYSTEM FUNCTIONS FOR PANAMA 14 ENTREPRENEURIAL EXPERIMENTATION 14 KNOWLEDGE DEVELOPMENT 15 KNOWLEDGE DIFFUSION 16 INFLUENCE ON THE DIRECTION OF THE SEARCH 17 MARKET FORMATION 17 LEGITIMATION 19 RESOURCE MOBILIZATION 19 POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES 20 BARRIERS TO THE GROWTH OF ELECTRIC MOBILITY IN PANAMA 20 ENTREPRENEURIAL EXPERIMENTATION 22 KNOWLEDGE CREATION 22 INFLUENCE ON THE DIRECTION OF THE SEARCH 23 MARKET FORMATION 24 LEGITIMATION 24 RESOURCE MOBILIZATION 24 POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES 25 1. INTRODUCTION 26 1.1 CONTEXT - THE NATIONAL STRATEGY OF ELECTRIC MOBILITY 26 1.2 OBJECTIVES 27 6 2. FRAMEWORK FOR THE ANALYSIS 28 2.1. CONCEPTUAL DEFINITIONS OF THE TIS FUNCTIONS 29 2.2. UTILIZING TIS TO ANALYZE ELECTRIC VEHICLES ADOPTION 31 2.3. DATA COLLECTION 34 3. EVALUATION OF THE TIS FUNCTIONS FOR PANAMA 35 3.1 ENTREPRENEURIAL EXPERIMENTATION 36 3.2 KNOWLEDGE DEVELOPMENT 45 3.3 KNOWLEDGE DIFFUSION 48 3.4 INFLUENCE ON THE DIRECTION OF THE SEARCH 51 3.5 MARKET FORMATION 57 3.6 LEGITIMATION 67 3.7 RESOURCE MOBILIZATION 71 3.8 POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES 76 4. ASSESSMENT OF OBSTACLES TO ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET UPTAKE 79 4.1. ENTREPRENEURIAL EXPERIMENTATION 80 4.2 KNOWLEDGE CREATION 82 INTEGRATION OF PROCESSES OF DATA CREATION 82 STRATEGIES TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS FOR BUS OPERATION 83 INTEGRATED PLAN OF ZERO-EMISSION PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION 83 FINANCING MODELS 84 4.3 KNOWLEDGE DIFFUSION 84 4.4 INFLUENCE ON THE DIRECTION OF THE SEARCH 85 4.5 MARKET FORMATION 85 4.6 LEGITIMATION 86 4.7 RESOURCE MOBILIZATION 87 4.8 POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES 88 7 List of Figures FIGURE 1. SCHEMATIC OF THE FUNCTIONS OF THE TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION SYSTEMS FRAMEWORK ..................................................................................................................................... 29 FIGURE 2. HISTORICAL ANNUAL SALES OF PERSONAL VEHICLES FOR PANAMA AND COSTA RICA (DATA SOURCE: OICA CHART: LOGIOS) ........................................................................................ 59 FIGURE 3. PERSONAL VEHICLES IN USE IN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA, 2005-2015 (DATA SOURCE: OICA; CHART: LOGIOS) ..................................................................................................................... 59 FIGURE 4. RATING OF THE HEALTH OF THE TIS FUNCTIONS FOR ELECTRIC BUS INNOVATION IN PANAMA. (SOURCE: LOGIOS) .......................................................................................................... 80 List of Tables TABLE 1. TIS FUNCTION DEFINITIONS AND HIGH-LEVEL OPERATIONALIZATIONS ........................ 31 TABLE 2. CORRELATION BETWEEN HIGH-PRIORITY ACTION ITEMS IN THE NATIONAL STRATEGY OF ELECTRIC MOBILITY AND TIS FUNCTIONS .............................................................................. 35 TABLE 3. CORRELATION BETWEEN MEDIUM-PRIORITY ACTION ITEMS IN THE NATIONAL STRATEGY OF ELECTRIC MOBILITY AND TIS FUNCTIONS ......................................................... 36 TABLE 4. AREAS OF ACTION RELATED TO ENTREPRENEURIAL EXPERIMENTATION IN PANAMA’S NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR ELECTRIC MOBILITY ......................................................................... 37 TABLE 5. AREAS OF ACTION RELATED TO KNOWLEDGE DEVELOPMENT IN PANAMA’S NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR ELECTRIC MOBILITY ............................................................................................ 45 TABLE 6. AREAS OF ACTION RELATED TO KNOWLEDGE DIFFUSION IN PANAMA’S NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR ELECTRIC MOBILITY ............................................................................................ 50 TABLE 7. AREAS OF ACTION RELATED TO INFLUENCE ON THE DIRECTION OF THE SEARCH IN PANAMA’S NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR ELECTRIC MOBILITY ..................................................... 52 TABLE 8. AREAS OF ACTION RELATED TO MARKET FORMATION IN PANAMA’S NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR ELECTRIC MOBILITY ............................................................................................ 60 TABLE 9. AREAS OF ACTION RELATED TO LEGITIMATION IN PANAMA’S NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR ELECTRIC MOBILITY ......................................................................................................................... 69 8 TABLE 10. AREAS OF ACTION RELATED TO RESOURCE MOBILIZATION IN PANAMA’S NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR ELECTRIC MOBILITY ............................................................................................ 73 TABLE 11. AREAS OF ACTION RELATED TO POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES IN PANAMA’S NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR ELECTRIC MOBILITY ............................................................................................ 76 9 (Page intentionally left blank.) 10 Executive Summary Introduction This report is concerned with the analysis of the electric vehicle innovation system in Panama, with a focus on the market segment of buses for public transportation. The objective is to identify potential barriers to adoption and strategies to improving conditions for adoption. The analysis for Panama is complemented with case studies of two countries in the region namely Costa Rica and Colombia. Also experiences from the United States are at times integrated. In October 28, 2019, Panama approved, via Cabinet Resolution 103, a National Strategy of Electric Mobility and instituted the Interagency Commission of Electric Mobility. The strategy proposed achieving the following goals by 2030: • 25% to 40% share of electric vehicles in car sales. • 10% to 20% of electric cars in the private vehicle fleet. • 25% to 50% of electric cars in the Government fleet. • 15% to 35% of electric buses in the fleets with authorized concession. The national strategy has 24 action areas to support electric mobility, mapped into four pillars, namely: • Governance • Regulation • Strategic Sectors, and • Knowledge and Education. The present analysis uses a theoretical framework known as Technology Innovation Systems (TIS), to define the factors that will help first characterize, and ultimately explain the status of electric vehicle markets. TIS recognizes that new technology adoption is not adequately supported with individual, disconnected measures, programs, or policies, and instead it takes a broad and integrated perspective on the process of technology adoption. The general logic behind using TIS is to start from an understanding of the conditions needed for innovation to flourish, 11 evaluate the existing conditions in a given market (Panama, in this case), identify the missing parts (deterrents to innovation), and apply domain expertise to evaluate the central areas for future work. To adequately support electric vehicle market adoption, eight areas of activity, known as functions, are necesary. These functions are described in Table ES 1, including examples of indicators that could be looked at, for the case of electric mobility. Data to evaluate these functions were obtained from public documents, publicly available information, and interviews with local stakeholders. Table ES 1. TIS function definitions and high-level operationalizations Function name Function description Example function indicators Function related to probing • Test programs (trials, pilots, etc.) new ideas to support • Local EV-related industry Entrepreneurial technology innovation. New • Regulatory & business models Experimentation ideas can relate to • Variety in vehicle offering technologies, methods, and • Exceptional champions institutions. • Feasibility studies or similar Function related to the • Identification of factors driving creation of new knowledge adoption Knowledge about technology, methods • Government reports Development related to the technology, or • Research groups institutions that support the • Technical assistances technology. • Time since market entry • EV working groups Function that disseminates Knowledge • Legislative activity knowledge within Diffusion • Interagency collaboration organizations and/or through • Industry-government networks 12 networks in the innovation •