Drina River Basin nexus assessment - Phase II National Consultation meeting KTH – Royal Institute of Technology: Emir Fejzić Youssef Almulla Dr. Vignesh Sridharan Dr. Francesco Gardumi 28/12/2020 National Consultation meeting 1 Agenda Key questions Scenarios Approach The river basin Preliminary results Hydro power plant cascade 28/12/2020 National Consultation meeting 2 Key questions to be addressed in Phase II • What role can renewables (hydro and non-hydro) in the Drina basin play in achieving the UNFCCC Nationally Determined Contributions? • What benefits does an increased share of non-hydro RES bring in terms of GHG emissions reduction and reduced stress on hydro power especially considering the need for flood containment measures. o To what extent may hydro power plants provide environmental services (e.g. environmental flows and flood control), and what impact does that have on their potential generation? • What are the effects of climate induced variability on hydropower generation? • What role could non-hydro RES play if the proposed plans for HPP development in the DRB are executed? • What effects can the Emission Trading Scheme, as part of the EU integration pathway, have on hydro and non-hydro RES development in the riparian countries? • In which way can hydro and non-hydro RES be impacted by the implementation of energy efficiency measures (demand- and supply-side)? 28/12/2020 National Consultation meeting 3 Scenarios proposed in Phase II • Reference scenario o Current policies, including INDC • Carbon pricing scenario o Effects of the ETS • Energy efficiency scenario o Impact of EE measures • Hydro development scenario o Expanding hydro in the DRB • Environmental services scenario o Dam storage capacity changes • Climate mitigation and adaptation scenario o Changes in RES prices 28/12/2020 National Consultation meeting 4 Approach • Electricity sector expansion model developed with OSeMOSYS (open source framework) from Phase I will be used • The model is a techno/economic least cost optimization model of the power sector • Power sector in all three Drina riparian countries (BA, ME and RS) represented – scenario analysis to obtain insights related to the key questions of the project • Emphasis on the operation of hydropower in cascade as well as the effects of non-hydro RES on hydropower and flood control/environmental flows 28/12/2020 National Consultation meeting 5 Map of the Drina River Basin 28/12/2020 National Consultation meeting 6 Production by technology Bosnia and Herzegovina 2020-2040 [cost-optimized] 23000 18000 13000 8000 Power Power supply [GWh] 3000 -2000 -7000 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Export Montenegro Export Croatia Export Serbia HPP HPP DRB HPP DRB New HPP New Solar PV New TPP TPP DRB TPP New WPP WPP New Import Croatia Demand 28/12/2020 National Consultation meeting 7 Production by technology Bosnia and Herzegovina 2020-2040 [IPRP 2021-2030 TPP production] 23000 18000 13000 8000 Power Power supply [GWh] 3000 -2000 -7000 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Export Croatia Export Montenegro Export Serbia HPP HPP DRB HPP DRB New HPP New Solar PV New TPP TPP DRB TPP New WPP WPP New Import Croatia Demand 28/12/2020 National Consultation meeting 8 Production by technology Republic of Serbia 2020-2040 63500 53500 43500 33500 23500 Power Power Supply[GWh] 13500 3500 -6500 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Import Albania Import Bosnia Import Bulgaria Import Croatia Import Hungary Import Macedonia Import Romania Export Albania Export Bulgaria Export Croatia Export Hungary Export Montenegro Export Macedonia Export Romania HPP HPP DRB HPP DRB New HPP New TPP TPP New WPP 28/12/2020 National Consultation meeting 9 Production by technology Montenegro 2020-2040 6400 5400 4400 3400 2400 Power Power supply [GWh] 1400 400 -600 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Import Albania Import Bosnia Import Italy Export Albania Export Italy HPP HPP DRB HPP DRB New HPP New Solar PV New TPP DRB TPP DRB New WPP WPP DRB Import Serbia Import Kosovo Demand 28/12/2020 National Consultation meeting 10 Production by technology Montenegro 2020-2040 6500 5500 4500 3500 2500 1500 Power Power supply [GWh] 500 -500 -1500 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Import Albania Import Bosnia Import Italy Export Albania Export Italy HPP HPP DRB WPP WPP DRB Import Serbia Import Kosovo Demand 28/12/2020 National Consultation meeting 11 Concept of the hydro power plant cascade model • Floods and droughts controlled by River segment 1 upstream river segments and catchments • Considers water availability, HPP operational rules, environmental flows • Discharges [m3/s] for normal years Dam storage Catchment based on monthly multi-year average flows • Inputs: dam storage [MCM], monthly Spillway discharges [m3/s], spillway capacities [m3/s], water needed for power River segment 2 production [m3/kWh] 28/12/2020 National Consultation meeting 12 Methodology • Development of a Drina Hydro-cascade UVAC RIVER LIM RIVER PIVA RIVER representation in the model Uvac Potpeć PIVA • Power production from hydropower plants (213 MCM) (27.5 MCM) (880 MCM) within the Drina River Basin based on: Kokin Brod o Water availability (250 MCM) o Rules of operation Bistrica o Environmental flows (7.6 MCM) o Storage volumes and discharge rates DRINA RIVER Višegrad (161 MCM) Bajina Bašta (218 MCM) Zvornik (89 MCM) 28/12/2020 National Consultation meeting 13 Višegrad dam storage levels - 2020-2040 180 160 140 120 3 100 80 Dam level Dam million level m 60 40 20 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 28/12/2020 National Consultation meeting 14 Višegrad dam storage levels - 2020-2040 Obtained calibrations for the period 2020-2040 for HPP Višegrad (yearly averages): • Yearly discharge of water through the turbines (water used for power production): 8886 MCM/year • Discharge of water through the spillways: 2025 MCM/year • Inflow to the dam storage: 10909 MCM/year 180 • Power production: 1010 GWh 160 140 Values regarding environmental 120 flows, operational rules and 100 average flows in the river 80 segments are crucial for the 60 Dam level million m3 million level Dam cascade model 40 20 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 28/12/2020 National Consultation meeting 15 Drina River Basin nexus assessment - Phase II National Consultation meeting KTH – Royal Institute of Technology: Emir Fejzić Youssef Almulla Dr. Vignesh Sridharan Dr. Francesco Gardumi 28/12/2020 National Consultation meeting 16.