A needed upgrade in planning for The Demography of Adaptation to Climate Change adaptation to climate change The Demography A flurry of extreme weather events, together with projections that grow more somber with every new scientific advance, of Adaptation to have dramatically highlighted the need to respond more effectively to the threats already upon humankind. In the midst of a rapidly expanding global adaptation agenda, it is Climate Change of primary importance to get adaptation and its constituent parts right, in order to generate the most appropriate and effective interventions. Reacting to events after they occur is no longer sufficient; we increasingly need to anticipate and reduce the suffering and the enormously damaging impacts coming events will cause. This book addresses a major gap in adaptation efforts to date by pointing to the vital role that an understanding of population dynamics and an extensive use of demographic data have in developing pre-emptive and effective adaptation policies and practices. Politics and an oversimplified understanding of demographic dynamics have long kept population issues out of serious discussions in the framework of climate negotiations. Within adaptation actions, however, this is beginning to change, and this volume is intended to provide a framework for taking that change forward, towards better, more evidence-based adaptation. It provides key concepts linking demography and adaptation, data foundations and techniques for analyzing climate vulnerability, as well as case studies where these concepts and analyses illuminate who is vulnerable and how to help build their resilience. International Institute for Environment and Environment Development International Environment and Institute Development fo r ISBN: 978-0-89714-001-0 International Sales no: E.13.III.H.2 Institute for Environment and Development The Demography of Adaptation to Climate Change The Demography of Adaptation to Climate Change International Institute for Environment and Development EDITORIAL TEAM George Martine and Daniel Schensul This book should be cited as: Martine, George and Daniel Schensul (eds.) 2013. The Demography of Adaptation to Climate Change. New York, London and Mexico City: UNFPA, IIED and El Colegio de México. COORDINATION José Miguel Guzmán DISCLAIMER The views expressed in this book do not necessarily represent those of UNFPA, IIED or El Colegio de México. Cover design by Gisela Martine and Prographics, Inc Cover photo: ©Marlene Bergamo/Folhapress Copyright ©UNFPA, IIED and El Colegio de México, 2013 ISBN: 978-0-89714-001-0 UN Sales Number: E.13.III.H.2 iv THE DEMOGRAPHY OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE Acknowledgements This book emerged from the results of an expert group meeting held in at El Colegio de México in Mexico City, October 2010, entitled “Population Dynamics and Climate Change II: Building for Adaptation.” The meeting was organized by UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund, IIED, the International Institute for Environment and Development and El Colegio de México. Support and contributions were provided by a wide range of international and national institutions, including UN-HABITAT, IOM, UNDP, ECLAC, UNIFEM, Population Division, UN/DESA, UNITAR, World Bank, Mexico’s Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Consejo Nacional de Población, Instituto Nacional de Ecología, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, and the Sociedad Mexicana de Demografía. This book has been realized with the support of the Government of Luxembourg through the project on Demographic Evolutions. We would like to thank Phyllis Brachman for editorial work that significantly improved each of the papers and the book as a whole. Guillermina Herrera of El Colegio de México provided extensive support in the organization of the meeting in 2010, and Madeleine Sacco provided invaluable administrative assistance in the preparation of the book. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS v Contents Acknowledgements ..................................................v Foreword .........................................................x About the Authors .................................................xii Introduction.......................................................xv George Martine and Daniel Schensul Section 1: Population Dynamics and Adaptation: Key Concepts and Perspectives 1. Populating Adaptation: Incorporating Population Dynamics in Climate Change Adaptation Policy and Practice . 1 Daniel Schensul and David Dodman 2. Fair and Effective Responses to Urbanization and Climate Change: Tapping Synergies and Avoiding Exclusionary Policies ............... 24 Gordon McGranahan, Deborah Balk, George Martine and Cecilia Tacoli 3. Migration as a Response to Local and Global Transformations: A Typology of Mobility in the Context of Climate Change ........... 41 Cecilia Tacoli Section 2: Population Data for Adaptation: Sources and Methodologies 4. Understanding Vulnerability and Adaptation Using Census Data ...... 55 José Miguel Guzmán, Daniel Schensul and Sainan Zhang 5. Harnessing Census Data for Environment and Climate Change Analysis 74 Deborah Balk, José Miguel Guzmán and Daniel Schensul 6. Using Household Surveys in Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Analysis ........................................... 96 Landy Sanchez Peña and Regina Fuchs Section 3: The Planning and Practice of Adaptation 7. Adapting Urban Settlements to Climate Change: Local Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity in the Urban Areas of Malawi ............... 115 Daniel Schensul, David Mkwambisi, Sainan Zhang, David Dodman, Thomas Munthali and Dunstan Matekenya CONTENTS vii 8. The Challenges of Adaptation in an Early but Unassisted Urban Transition ............................................ 138 George Martine and Ricardo Ojima 9. Planning for Adaptation in a Megacity: A Case Study of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area ........................................... 158 Boris Graizbord List of Boxes 7.1: Climate Change Impacts in Malawi ............................. 121 7.2: The City of Blantyre ......................................... 127 7.3: The City of Mzuzu .......................................... 130 List of Figures 1.1: IPCC Schematic Diagram Linking Drivers, Impacts and Responses to Climate Change ............................................. 2 1.2: Bacon Poblacion, Sorsogon, Philippines .......................... 12 1.3: Resilience Framework ......................................... 15 4.1: Layers of Vulnerabilities/Adaptive Capacity ........................ 57 5.1: Provincial Boundaries, Overlaid by the 10m Low Elevation Coastal Zone, Viet Nam ....................................... 82 5.2: Provincial and Commune Boundaries, Overlaid by the 10m Low Elevation Coastal Zone, Viet Nam ........................... 83 5.3: Per Cent Difference in Estimates of Population Exposure to the LECZ: Province and Commune-level Estimation Compared ................ 84 6.1: Household Surveys and Vulnerability Analysis ..................... 98 6.2: Education Distribution by Age in India and Mexico ................ 102 6.3: Labour and Asset Income by Age and Education in India and Mexico .. 103 6.4: Income Structure in Mexican Rural Households by State ............ 106 6.5: Variation in Budget Shares across Regions and Rural/Urban Residence .. 108 7.1: Study Sites in Malawi ........................................ 118 7.2: Population Density in Lilongwe ................................ 124 7.3: STI in Lilongwe ............................................. 125 7.4: Proportion of Households with Improved Toilets, Blantyre........... 128 8.1: Number of Urban Inhabitants, Africa, Asia and LAC (in billions) 2010-2050 .................................................. 140 8.2: Flooding and Devastation in Cities near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: Photos 1 and 2 .............................................. 144 8.3: Proportion of All Households Having Inadequate Sanitation by Size of Municipalities, Brazil, 1991-2010 ....................... 146 viii THE DEMOGRAPHY OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE 8.4: Distribution of Urban Population by City-Size Class, Brazil, 1950-2010 .................................................. 149 8.5: Proportion of the Metropolitan Population Residing in Peripheral Municipalities, 15 Brazilian Metropolitan Areas, 1991-2010 . 150 8.6: Percentage of Households Linked to Sewage Networks in Central and Peripheral Areas of Metropolitan Regions, Brazil, 2010 ... 151 9.1: Urban Growth in the Valley of Mexico, 1950-2010 ................. 160 9.2: Housing and Population Vulnerability Matrix ..................... 166 9.3: MCMA: Spatial Distribution of Vulnerability ..................... 166 9.4: Vulnerable Population and Dwellings in AGEBs Exposed to Heavy Rain ....................................... 168 9.5: Vulnerable Population and Dwellings in Areas of Hill Slopes 15o or More ....................................... 169 9.6: Vulnerable Population and Dwellings Affected by Heat Waves ....... 170 List of Tables 4.1: Examples of Indicators of Adaptive Capacity by Layer and Type........ 65 5.1: Province-level Summary of Mis-estimation of the Population Living within a Low Elevation Coastal Zone: A Comparison of Scale-dependent Estimates ....................... 86 6.1: Common Variables in IEHS and Their Relationship to Vulnerability... 105 7.1: Population Projection for Main Urban Centres in Malawi ........... 119 7.2: Resident Total Population and Migration ......................... 120 7.3: Selected Socioeconomic and Adaptive Capacity Indicators: Urban