STRATEGIC RETHINK FRIENDS, FOES, AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS U.S. Partnerships in a Turbulent World Hans Binnendijk C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1210 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9220-5 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2016 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report is the third in a series of volumes in which RAND explores the elements of a national strategy for the conduct of U.S. foreign policy in a fast-changing world. The initial volume in this Strategic Rethink series, Choices for America in a Turbulent World, examined the most critical decisions the next president is likely to face, and thus likely to be debated during the 2016 election campaign. It covered two global issues, climate change and the world economy; assessed potential direc- tions for national defense; evaluated issues related to counterterrorism and cybersecurity; and explored U.S. strategic choices in three key regions, Europe, the Middle East and South Asia, and East Asia. The subsequent studies in this series take up where the initial volume left off and examine in more detail a range of long-term policy issues and organizational, financial, and diplomatic challenges that will confront senior U.S. officials now, in 2017, and beyond, including national defense, institutional reform of the U.S. system for managing national security, reducing strategic surprise, and the global economy. This volume focuses on U.S. friends and potential foes, and ana- lyzes how alliances and partnerships may evolve to meet the diverse potential challenges to regional and global security. It considers the degree to which the United States wishes to be assertive, to collab- orate, or to retrench, given the demands of the emerging strategic environment. This volume should be of interest to defense and foreign policy decisionmakers in the United States and allied nations, analysts, the media, the staff and advisers to the 2016 presidential candidates, non- iii iv Friends, Foes, and Future Directions governmental organizations, and others concerned about the role of the United States and other nations in advancing global security. This project results from the RAND Corporation’s Investment in People and Ideas program. Support for this program is provided, in part, by philanthropic contributions from donors and by the indepen- dent research and development provisions of RAND’s contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and development centers. Special appreciation goes to the Hauser Foundation for its generous gift in support of the project and to Rita Hauser for encouraging RAND to undertake it. For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ............................................................... ix Executive Summary ............................................................. xi Acknowledgments .............................................................. xix CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO The Partnership Setting ......................................................... 3 The Historical Importance of U.S. Partnerships ............................... 3 Global Trends Affecting U.S. Partnerships ..................................... 5 Partnerships Increasingly Require U.S. Political Flexibility ................... 7 Alternative U.S. Approaches to Partnership Engagement ..................... 9 CHAPTER THREE Anatomy of the Potential Adversaries........................................15 China ...............................................................................15 Russia .............................................................................. 24 North Korea .......................................................................29 Iran..................................................................................32 Salafi Jihadists .....................................................................35 Cooperation Among Potential Adversaries ....................................39 These Adversaries Create Vulnerable Partners .................................41 Back to Bipolarity? ............................................................... 43 v vi Friends, Foes, and Future Directions Formidable Adversaries Make U.S. Retrenchment Difficult on Its Partners ....................................................................... 44 A Strategy for Dealing with Potential Adversaries ............................45 CHAPTER FOUR U.S. Constraints Limit Assertiveness ........................................47 U.S. Attitudes Toward Global Responsibility .................................47 Shifting Global Defense Spending ..............................................49 Is the United States Overextended? .............................................52 U.S. Power to Coerce ............................................................ 54 U.S. Energy Exports to Partners ................................................57 The Impact of Budgetary Constraints and Public Attitude ..................58 CHAPTER FIVE European Partners and the “Free Rider” Problem ........................61 Paradigm Lost .....................................................................61 Vulnerable Partners ...............................................................63 Declining Capabilities and Will in Europe ................................... 68 Three Pivotal Partners: The United Kingdom, Germany, and Turkey ......74 Can Venus Become Mars? ...................................................... 80 Assessing the Historical “Free Rider” Problem ............................... 84 Transatlantic Trade and Security ............................................... 90 Europe in North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia ..........................91 A Regional Strategy for Europe ................................................ 94 CHAPTER SIX Asian Partners and Inadequate Security Structures ..................... 97 The U.S. Pivot to Asia ........................................................... 97 Strategic Dangers in Asia ........................................................ 98 Areas of Tension and Vulnerable Nations .................................... 100 Asia’s Security Architecture Is Underdeveloped ............................. 105 Two Pivotal Partners: Japan and India ....................................... 107 The Trans-Pacific Partnership ................................................. 114 Military Options for Dealing with China ................................... 115 Potential Strategies for Managing China ..................................... 117 A Regional Strategy for Asia ................................................... 120 Contents vii CHAPTER SEVEN In Search of a Middle East Partnership Strategy ........................ 123 The Middle East Today ......................................................... 124 Vulnerable American Partners ................................................. 126 Layers of Chaos and Contradiction ........................................... 128 Pivotal Partners: Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan ..................... 131 Russia Joins the Fray ............................................................ 136 Alternatives for a New Middle East Strategy ................................ 137 CHAPTER EIGHT Conclusion: Choosing an Approach........................................ 141 Abbreviations ................................................................... 149 References ....................................................................... 151 Figures and Tables Figures 3.1. Potential U.S. Adversaries ..........................................16 6.1. Disputed Regions in the South China Sea ...................... 101 6.2. East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone............... 102 6.3. ROK-DPRK Maritime Boundaries .............................. 105 6.4. Subjective and Objective Models of Reality .................... 120 7.1. Muslim Population Map: Shi’ites as a Percentage of the Muslim Population ...............................................