Observing the Climate System – now and in the future Prof. Stephen Briggs Chair, GCOS Steering Committee Dept. of Chemistry, Cambridge University & Dept. of Meteorology Reading University Credit: Victor & Kennel, Nature Climate Change, 2014. Atmosphere Physical - Surface Physical - subsurface Biogeochemical Surface •Ocean surface heat flux •Subsurface currents •Inorganic carbon •Precipitation •Sea ice •Subsurface salinity •Nitrous oxide •Pressure •Sea level •Subsurface temperature •Nutrients •Radiation budget •Sea state •Ocean colour •Temperature Ocean •Sea surface currents Biological/ecosystems •Oxygen •Water vapour •Sea surface salinity •Transient tracers •Wind speed and direction •Sea surface stress •Marine habitat properties •Plankton Upper-air •Sea surface temperature •Cloud properties •Earth radiation budget Hydrosphere Biosphere •Lightning Essential •Groundwater •Above-ground biomass •Temperature •Lakes •Albedo •Water vapour Climate •River discharge •Evaporation from land •Wind speed and direction Cryosphere •Fire •Fraction of absorbed Atmospheric Composition Variables •Glaciers photosynthetically active •Aerosol and ozone precursors •Ice sheets and ice shelves radiation (FAPAR) •Aerosols properties Land •Permafrost •Land cover •Carbon dioxide, methane and •Snow •Leaf area index other greenhouse gases ECV •Soil carbon •Ozone Anthroposphere •Soil moisture •Anthropogenic Greenhouse gas fluxes •Land surface temperature •Anthropogenic water use Ocean Precipitation, Cloud Acidification Carbon Properties, Deforestation Dioxide, Water Vapour Methane Sea Level Rise Surface Mitigation Fisheries Temperature Ecosystem Loss Water Carbon Sea Surface Soil Moisture, River & Subsurface Soil Carbon, Discharge, Salinity, Inorganic Above-ground Lakes, Sea Level, Biomass, Fire, Groundwater, Carbon Sea Surface GHG Fluxes Temperature Cryosphere, Water use Radiation Budgets, Coral Bleaching Temperature Wind speed & Agriculture direction Human Health Systemic Risks Floods Energy Security Droughts Ocean Surface Albedo, Heat Flux, Sea Latent and Slow Economic Water Resources Surface & Sensible Heat Subsurface fluxes, Land Development Storms Temperature, Surface Temperature Temperature Heat waves Understanding and monitoring Climate Cycles Monitoring contributing to the Paris Agreement & Global Stocktake Glacier Mass Mean Temperature Ocean Acidity Atmospheric CO2 Balance Global mean temperature anomalies, with respect to the 1850–1900 Trends in surface (< 50 m) ocean carbonate chemistry calculated from observations Globally averaged mole fraction (measure of concentration), Mean cumulative mass balance of all baseline, for the five global datasets (Source: UK Met Office Hadley obtained at the Hawaii Ocean Timeseries (HOT) Program in the North Pacific over from1984 to 2016, of CO2 in reported glaciers (blue line) and the Centre) 1988–2015. Seawater pH (black points, primary y-axis) and carbonate ion concentration parts per million (left), CH4 in parts per billion (middle) and reference glaciers (red line). SOURCE: world (green points, secondary y-axis). Ocean chemistry data were obtained from the Hawaii N2O in parts per billion (right). The red line is the monthly Ocean Timeseries Data Organization & Graphical System (HOT-DOGS). (Source: US mean mole fraction with the seasonal variations removed; the glacier monitoring service http://wgms.ch/ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Jewett and Romanou, 2017) blue dots and line depict the monthly averages. (Source: WMO Global Atmosphere Watch) Ocean Heat Content Sea Ice Extent Sea Level Arctic Antarctic Change Global ocean heat content change (x 1022 J) for the 0–700 metre Global mean sea-level time series (with seasonal cycle removed), layer: three-monthly means (red), and annual (black) and 5-year January 1993–January 2018, from satellite altimetry multi-missions. (blue) running means, from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Data from AVISO September sea-ice extent for the Arctic, and (right) September sea-ice extent for the Antarctic. Percentage of Administration (NOAA) dataset. (Source: prepared by WMO using (Source: Collecte- Localisation-Satellite (CLS) – Laboratoire d’Etudes long-term average of the reference period 1981–2010 (Source: prepared by WMO using data from the US data from NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information) en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (LEGOS)) National Snow and Ice Data Center) GCOS encourages Data Rescue GCOS Cooperation Mechanism Argo is one core network, with Deep Argo in pilot mode. Argo is one core network, with Deep Argo in pilot mode. Global River Discharge Data • While river discharge is measured, in some parts of the world river discharge data is not routinely exchanged • Measurements and data exchange are coordinated internationally by WMO • The data is held by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in Koblenz, Germany Arctic Permafrost Monitoring Glaciers distinct from the Greenland & Antarctic Ice Sheets 215,000 glaciers · 158,000 km3 · 0.32 m potential SLE Farinotti et al. (2019), Nature Geoscience www.swisseduc.ch/glaciers/ intro data methods results take home Annual glacier contributions to sea-level rise 1961-2016 Global ΔM 2011-16: -335 Gt yr-1 about 1 mm SLE yr-1 (3 x remaining ice of the Alps)Zemp et al. (2019) Shepherd et al,. Nature, June 2018. CPOM, Univ of Leeds. intro data methods results take home Main contributions to sea-level budget 2004-2015 Antarctic Ice Sheet residuals Greenland thermal expansion Ice Sheet glaciers Glacier data from Zemp et al. (2019), other values from Cazenave et al. (2018), observed GMSLR: 3.5 mm per year Thermal expansion + Ocean mass change regional sea-level trends mm p.a. Space-based CO2 and CH4 Measurements Provide Increased Coverage and Resolution Spatially-resolved estimates of the column-averaged CO2 and CH4 dry air mole fractions, XCO2 and XCH4, like those from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) and Japan’s Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) are less precise and accurate than ground- based in situ data but provide high spatial and temporal resolution and greater coverage of the globe. ppm CO2 XCO2 measurements collected by OCO-2 in May 2016. Persistent spatial anomalies in OCO-2 XCO2 estimates for 201 22 5 – 2018. Yellow regions have persistently high CO2. A System Approach for Atmospheric Inventories Measurements Models Products UNFCCC/COP25 Japan Pavilion Seminar 23 Aeolus: Atmospheric Dynamics Weak Polar Vortex Subtropical Jet Streams Subtropical Jet Polar Jet Stream seen from east (blue); seen from east (blue) seen from west seen from east from west (red) (blue) 27 February 2019 © ESA/ECMWF ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use m/s NoRSC’19 | 18 Sept. 2019 | Slide 24 Biomass Mission Measure forest biomass and height (200 m. pixel) Payload P-Band radar Orbit SSO, alt: 666 km; LTAN: 06h00 Satellite 1250 Kg Consortium Prime: ADS-UK, Instrument: ADS-DE Launch 2022 ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use NoRSC’19 | 18 Sept. 2019 | Slide 25 Sentinel Status S-1 S-2 S-3 S-4 S-5P S-5 S-6 Radar High Res. Medium Atmospheric Atmospheric Atmospheric Altimetry Optical Res. Optical Chemistry Chemistry Chemistry & Altimetry (GEO) (LEO) (LEO) A A A A A A A 3 Apr. 2014 23 Jun. 2015 16 Feb. 2016 2022 13 Oct. 2017 2021 2020 B B B B B B 25 Apr. 2016 6 Mar. 2017 25 Apr. 2018 2027 2027 2025 C C C C 2022/23 2022/23 2023 > 2027 D D D > 2022/23 > 2022/23 > 2023 ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use NoRSC’19 | 18 Sept. 2019 | Slide 26 Global fires detected in August 2018 compared to August 2019 The Sentinel-3 World Fire Atlas recorded 79 000 wildfires in August 2019, compared to just over 16 000 fires during the same period in 2018. Sentinel-5p and Sentinel-3: Amazon Fires See World Fire Atlas at: See: Monitoring air pollution from fires https://s3worldfireatlas.esa.int/ ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use NoRSC’19 | 18 Sept. 2019 | Slide 28 Sub-kilometric soil moisture (SMOS+S1 -500m) April May 2016 June 2016 July 2016 2016 Monsoon Aug. 2016 Sept. Oct. 2016 Nov. 2016 Dec. 2016 Karnataka 2016 S.W. India www.satykut.com Courtesy Al Bitar & Tomer ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use Monsoon NoRSC’19 | 18 Sept. 2019 | Slide 29 Observation, Infrastructure & Information Weather, Climate, Water and related GCOS Systems environmental Services and Applications Sensing Data Records Delivery of Services Decision Making •Observation of the Earth •Preparation of Climate •Delivery of targeted and Implementation System Data records information for specific •Implement actions based •Archiving, applications or to inform on the information •Reanalysis, decisions •Production of long GCOS supports datasets observations and •Climate projections production of climate the data records that underpin climate service delivery, e.g. for weather, hydrology, ocean cryosphere and biosphere. Data Managers, Modeler, Network and system Service companies & Re-Analyses (ECMFW, National authorities, operators: e.g. national agencies, (Copernicus, ESRI, NCEP, DWD, JMA, insurance companies, meteorological services, Google Maps, national Research, data Providers, private sector satellite agencies meteorological services) etc.) Feedback on user needs and gaps in observational and data systems Reanalysis data and derived products Before… Science inputs Raw materials Consolidation of Geophysical Models Decision Making - data sources the famous “users” Geospatially Referenced •Observation of the - “wholesale Earth System services” Continuous fields - Government as output - Policy • Satellite data f(x,y,z,t,,x0,x1…) •