THE MAZE OF SPACE TO COME BREAKTHROUGH INITIATIVES JAMIE DREW, BREAKTHROUGH PRIZE FOUNDATION - [email protected] - Kerastari 20170529 FOUNDERS: Sergey Brin - Priscilla Chan – Jack Ma – Julia Milner – Yuri Milner - Anne Wojcicki - Cathy Zhang – Mark Zuckerberg. NOMINATIONS. LABYRINTH? SPACE EXPLORATION? 19571004 7 19610412 196907208 1610… 9 PHILANTHROPY & SPACE EXPLORATION. 2008 GDP Ratio Project Year Cost Equivalent Value University of North Carolina Observatory 1831 $6,4301 $89,000,000 Williams College Observatory 1836 $6,1002 $60,000,000 West Point Academy Observatory 1842 $5,0003 $45,000,000 U.S. Naval Observatory 1842 $25,0004 $225,000,000 Cincinnati Observatory 1843 $16,0005 $149,000,000 Harvard College Observatory 1843 $25,0006 $233,000,000 -Edward Phillips Endowment 1848 $100,0007 $601,000,000 Georgetown Observatory 1844 $18,0008 $154,000,000 Detroit Observatory 1852 $17,0009 $81,000,000 Shattuck Observatory 1852 $11,00010 $52,000,000 Hamilton College Observatory 1852 $15,00011 $71,000,000 Dudley Observatory 1852 $119,00012 $566,000,000 Dearborn Observatory 1865 $25,00013 $37,000,000 Transit of Venus Expedition 1872 $177,00014 $310,000,000 Lick Observatory 1876 $700,00015 $1,220,000,000 Warner Observatory 1880 $100,00016 $139,000,000 Transit of Venus Expedition 1882 $85,00017 $101,000,000 McCormick Observatory 1881 $135,00018 $168,000,000 Yerkes Observatory 1892 $500,00019 $441,000,000 Mt. Wilson Observatory 1910 $945,00020 $408,000,000 Mt. Palomar Observatory 1928 $6,550,00021 $972,000,000 McDonald Observatory 1939 $840,00022 $132,000,000 Space Exploration Projects in the 19th and early 20th Century (Source: MacDonald, A., The Remote Space Age: An Economic History of Space Exploration from Galileo to Gagarin forthcoming doctoral dissertation at the University of Oxford; conversions using GDP time series from Johnston, L.D., and Williamson, S.H., "The Annual Real and Nominal GDP for the United States, 1790 - Present" MeasuringWorth, 2008) Examining the equivalent GDP ratio value of early American observatories makes it clear that space exploration has been funded at economically significant levels for over 150 years. The table above provides the 2008 GDP ratio equivalent values for a number of American observatories and space exploration projects in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Projects at relative scales equivalent to $100 million to $1 billion were relatively common. It is worth emphasizing that the modern equivalent values calculated here should be taken only to indicate the order of magnitude of expenditure, given that other appropriate equivalent resource share values can be calculated; for example, rather than scaling the expenditure as a share of the total resources of the U.S. economy, the expenditure can be scaled as a share of the resources of the individuals who undertook the projects. James Lick was the richest man in California and the Lick Observatory expenditure represented 17.5% of his entire estate. The equivalent share of the wealth of the richest man in California today, Larry Ellison, is $3.9 billion dollars, approximately four times higher than the GDP equivalent share. LIFE IN THE UNIVERSE? Credit: Marc Imhoff of NASA GSFC and Christopher Elvidge of NOAA NGDC. Craig Mayhew and Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC. Credit: Apollo 8, William Andres, Dec 24, 1968 Credit: ESA / OSIRIS Rosetta NASA/JPL-Caltech/Space Science Institute NASA/JPL-Caltech/R. Hurt (SSC/Caltech) ? NASA/ESA Credit: NASA Credit: NASA 23 TECHNOLOGICAL LIFE? 25 26 27 © The Ohio State University Radio Observatory / NAAPO PRIMARY FOCUS Scientifically rigorous programme 1 Million nearby stars 100 Galaxies 1 Galactic Plane Open Data New Information Processing New Instrumentation ADVISORY COMMITTEE 25 João Alves Paul Horowitz Martin Rees (Chair) Mathew Bailes Andrew Howard Brian Schmidt Jim Cordes Nikolai Kardashev Sara Seager Paul Davies Joseph Lazio Seth Shostak Frank Drake Di Li Jill Tarter Ron Ekers Chris Lintott Lucianne Walkowicz Andrew Fraknoi Avi Loeb Jason Wright Mike Garrett Shin-ya Narusawa Shelley Wright John Gertz © NRAO 35 © CSIRO © Laurie Hatch CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION CONFIDENTIALCONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR – NOT DISTRIBUTION FOR DISTRIBUTION CONFIDENTIALCONFIDENTIAL – – NOT NOT FOR FOR DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION CONFIDENTIAL – NOTCONFIDENTIAL FOR DISTRIBUTION – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION CONFIDENTIALCONFIDENTIAL – NOT – NOT FOR FOR DISTRIBUTION PUBLISHED WORK CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION PUBLISHED WORK REMOTE ANALYSIS GREENBANK TELESCOPE (GBT) REMOTEUC BERKELEY ANALYSIS GREENBANK TELESCOPE (GBT) UC BERKELEY ONLINE JANUARY 2016 ONLINE JANUARY 2016 observatory compute nodes raw data CONFIDENTIALCONFIDENTIAL – NOT – NOT FOR FOR DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION PUBLISHEDPUBLISHED WORK WORK CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION 40-320 Gbps onsite reduction/analysis PUBLISHED WORK REMOTE ANALYSIS REMOTE ANALYSISREMOTE ANALYSISreduced data 500 150PB - TB/day YEAR 10 PB / YR REMOTE ANALYSISUC BERKELEY 20 PB / YR 10 PB / YR 10 PB / YR GREENBANKGREENBANK TELESCOPE TELESCOPE (GBT) (GBT) 10 PB / YR UC BERKELEYUC BERKELEY20 PB / YR 10 PB / YR 10 PB / YR GREENBANK TELESCOPE (GBT) 500 PB - YEAR UC BERKELEY ONLINE JANUARY 2016 ONSITE ANALYSIS DATA TRANSFER CLOUD ANALYSIS OPEN DATA PUBLIC ANALYSIS & API ONLINEONLINE JANUARY JANUARY 2016 2016 ONSITE ANALYSIS DATA TRANSFER CLOUD ANALYSIS OPEN DATA PUBLIC ANALYSIS & API ONLINE JANUARY 2016 observatory storage nodes SETI @ HOME Green Bank SETI @ HOME PARKES TELESCOPE (PT) GOOGLE CLOUD COMPUTING PUBLISHEDPUBLISHED WORK WORKGOOGLE CLOUD STORAGE PARKES TELESCOPE (PT) GOOGLE CLOUD COMPUTING GOOGLE CLOUD STORAGE ONLINE OCTOBER 2016 ONLINE OCTOBER 2016 101 PBPB/year / YR REMOTE ANALYSIS20 PB / YR 10 PB / YR PUBLISHED WORK10 PB / YR 500500 PB -PB YEAR - YEAR 10 PB / YR 10 PB / YR REMOTE ANALYSIS20 PB / YR 10 PB / YR 10 PB / YR 500500 PBPB -- YEARYEAR 10 PB / YR UC20 BERKELEY PB / YR 10 PB / YR 10 PB / YR CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION GREENBANK TELESCOPE (GBT) ONSITE ANALYSIS DATAdata TRANSFER transfer UC BERKELEY CLOUD ANALYSIS OPEN DATA CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION GREENBANK TELESCOPE (GBT) ONSITE ANALYSIS DATA TRANSFERDATA TRANSFER CLOUD ANALYSIS open accessOPEN DATA PUBLIC ANALYSIS & API ONSITE ANALYSIS DATA TRANSFER CLOUDREMOTE ANALYSIS ANALYSIS OPEN DATA PUBLIC ANALYSIS & API ONLINE JANUARY 2016 UC BerkeleyUC BERKELEY data center scientific data archive PUBLIC ANALYSISSETISETI @ & HOME API@ HOME ONLINE JANUARY 2016GREENBANK TELESCOPE500 PB / YR (GBT)observatory compute nodes10 PB / YR PUBLISHED WORK 10 PB / YR storage/analysis PUBLISHED WORK SETI @ HOME ONLINE JANUARY500 PB / YR 2016 GOOGLE CLOUD COMPUTING PUBLISHEDGOOGLE WORK CLOUD STORAGE PARKESPARKES TELESCOPE TELESCOPE (PT) (PT) ONSITE ANALYSIS DATA TRANSFER GOOGLE CLOUD COMPUTING GOOGLE CLOUD STORAGE PARKES TELESCOPE (PT) 40-160 Gbps REMOTE ANALYSIS GOOGLE CLOUD COMPUTING GOOGLE CLOUD STORAGE ONLINE OCTOBER 2016 ONSITE ANALYSIS DATA TRANSFERREMOTE ANALYSIS ONLINEONLINE OCTOBER OCTOBER 2016 2016 UC BERKELEY REMOTE ANALYSIS GREENBANK TELESCOPEGREENBANK (GBT)ONLINE TELESCOPE OCTOBER (GBT)2016 UC BERKELEYREMOTE ANALYSIS 150 TB/day 10 PB / YR UC BERKELEY CONFIDENTIAL10 PB / YR – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION ONLINE JANUARY GREENBANK2016 APF TELESCOPE TELESCOPE (GBT) (APF) 500 PB - YEAR 10 PB / YR UC BERKELEY2020 PB PB / /YR YR 1010 PB PB / /YR YR 10CONFIDENTIAL PB / YR – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION GREENBANKONLINEAPF JANUARY TELESCOPETELESCOPE 2016 (APF)(GBT) 500 PB - YEAR 500 PB - YEAR 10 PB / YR 20 PB / YR 10 PB / YR 10 PB / YR ONSITE ANALYSIS DATA TRANSFER CLOUD ANALYSIS OPEN DATA ONLINEONLINE JANUARY APRIL 2016 2016 ONSITE ANALYSIS DATA TRANSFER CLOUD ANALYSIS OPEN DATAOPEN DATA PUBLIC ANALYSIS & API ONLINEONLINE JANUARY APRIL 2016 2016 10 PB / YR ONSITE ANALYSIS DATA TRANSFER CLOUD ANALYSIS PUBLICPUBLIC ANALYSIS ANALYSIS & & API API 500500 PB /PB YR / YR observatory storage10 PB nodes/ YR 10 PB / YR SETI @ HOME Parkes500500 PBPB // YRYR 10 PB / YR SETISETI @ @ HOMEHOME ONSITE ANALYSIS DATA TRANSFER PUBLISHEDPUBLISHED WORK WORK PARKES TELESCOPE (PT)ONSITE ANALYSIS DATA TRANSFERDATA TRANSFER GOOGLE CLOUDGOOGLE COMPUTING CLOUD COMPUTINGPUBLISHED WORKGOOGLEGOOGLE CLOUD CLOUD STORAGE STORAGE PARKESPARKES TELESCOPE TELESCOPE (PT) (PT) ONSITE ANALYSIS DATA TRANSFER GOOGLE CLOUD COMPUTING GOOGLEDATA CLOUD VOLUME STORAGE / FLOW DIAGRAM: 10 PB / YR DATA VOLUME / FLOW DIAGRAM: ONLINE500 OCTOBER PB - YEAR 2016 ONLINE500 PB -OCTOBER YEAR1 TB / YR 2016 10 PB / YR 1 TB / YR 20 PB / YR 10 PB / YR 10 PB / THREEYR TELESCOPES IN FULL OPERATIONAL ONLINE OCTOBER 2016 1 PB/year REMOTEREMOTE ANALYSIS ANALYSIS THREE10 PB / YR TELESCOPES IN FULL OPERATIONAL APF TELESCOPE (APF) 500 PB1 - TB YEAR / YR DATA TRANSFER 10 PB1 TB / YR/ YR REMOTE ANALYSIS20 PB / YR 10 PB / YR public data, API, APF TELESCOPE (APF)ONSITE ANALYSIS 500 PB ONSITE- YEAR ANALYSISONSITE ANALYSIS 10 PB /DATA YR TRANSFERDATA TRANSFER UC BERKELEY 20 CLOUDPB / YR ANALYSIS 10 PB / YR OPEN DATA CAPACITY10 PB / YR OVER 12 MONTHS. DATA EXPRESED AS GREENBANKGREENBANKAPF TELESCOPE TELESCOPE TELESCOPE (APF) (GBT) (GBT) UCUC BERKELEY BERKELEY Google Cloud and SETI@home CAPACITYPUBLIC ANALYSIS OVER 12 & MONTHS.API DATA EXPRESED AS GREENBANKONLINE TELESCOPE APRIL 2016 (GBT) ONSITEONSITE ANALYSIS ANALYSIS DATADATA TRANSFER TRANSFER CLOUD ANALYSIS OPEN DATA VOLUMEPUBLIC OF DATA ANALYSIS OVER & API A YEAR. ONLINEONLINEONLINE APRIL JANUARY 2016 APRIL 2016 2016 ONSITE ANALYSIS DATA TRANSFER storage/analysisCLOUD ANALYSIS OPEN DATAVOLUMESETI