EASTEc ONOmIcS, POlItIcS AND PuBASIAlIc POlIcy IN EASt ASIA ANDFORUM thE PAcIFIc Vol.2 No.2 April-June 2010 $9.50 Quarterly Questions for Southeast Asia Surin Pitsuwan ASEAN central to the region’s future Andrew MacIntyre Obama in Indonesia and Australia Dewi Fortuna Anwar Indonesia, the region and the world Thitinan Pongsudhirak Thailand’s unstoppable red shirts Tim Soutphommasane From stir-fries to ham sandwiches Ingrid Jordt Burma’s protests and their aftermath Greg Fealy Jemaah Islamiyah, Dulmatin and the Aceh cell and more . EASTASIAFORUM CONTENTS Quarterly 4 surin pitsuwan ISSN 1837-5081 (print) ASEAN central to the region’s future ISSN 1837-509X (online) From the Editor’s desk 6 andrew macintyre common causes: Obama in Indonesia and Southeast Asia defies simple categorisation. Among its countries Australia there are obvious contrasts: big and small, vibrant and stagnant, 8 don emmerson attractive and troubling, peaceful and unsettled, quaint and web- ASEAN and American engagement in East savvy, confronting and embracing. The contributors to this issue Asia of the EAFQ grapple with parts of the Southeast Asian mosaic, 10 dewi fortuna anwar punctuated, as ever, by domestic intrigues, national ambitions, and Indonesia, the region and the world international engagements. 11 greg fealy What ties the articles in this issue together, but never in a neat or terrorism today: Jemaah Islamiyah, seamless way, is the position of these countries, hemmed in by the Dulmatin and the Aceh cell much larger societies of china and India, and now forced to confront 13 thitinan pongsudhirak a world where ferocious technological and cultural change tests even The unstoppable red shirts the most effective governments. On the one hand—as a crossroads, a hub and a melting-pot—Southeast Asia is well-positioned to take 14 kevin hewison advantage of its special geographical and social inheritance. On the Rebellion, repression and the red shirts other hand, the more than 500 million people of the region confront 17 nick nostitz major challenges in the years ahead. There are many questions for Reporting from Thailand’s political front Southeast Asia, and few easy answers. lines Recent history shows just how unpredictable the prospects 20 thomas kean of particular countries are. At independence in 1948 Burma was No longer the capital: yangon today considered to have a strong chance of succeeding. Instead, its 22 ingrid jordt post-independence history has seen great tragedy, and a continuing The monks’ protest and its aftermath stalemate between pro-democracy forces and their military 24 tim soutphommasane opponents. Indonesia has weathered its own torments and is now From stir-fries to ham sandwiches beginning to take advantage of new electoral vitality and increasing 27 mahani zainal abidin and prosperity. Will that last? Thailand offers a cautious lesson; after a steven wong promising flirtation with democratic institutions, it now faces the The next step up for a Southeast Asian power challenge of establishing a new political and economic consensus in 28 gregore lopez the waning years of King Bhumibol Adulyadej’s reign. In the other mahathir’s regional legacy most populous countries of the region—Vietnam, the Philippines and 30 rachel leow malaysia—political, economic and social debates are not settled. All Sticks and stones in the Allah controversy are struggling to find answers to their own challenges. 32 vu minh khuong Swirling above these country-specific preoccupations is the vexed today determines tomorrow matter of Southeast Asian regionalism itself. The Association of 34 chris urbanski Southeast Asian Nations has become one of the world’s premier counting votes and making money regional bodies. can it continue to lead the region? Will it be properly resourced to tackle pressing issues of democratisation, terrorism, human-rights abuses, economic growth, social harmony and corruption? These remain tantalising questions for Southeast Asia as a whole. Published by ANu E Press The Australian National university Nicholas Farrelly canberra Act 0200, Australia www.eastasiaforum.org Email: [email protected] Web: http://epress.anu.edu.au 2 EAST ASIA FORUM QUARTERLY APRIL-JUNE 2010 CONTRIBUTORS & STAFF Surin Pitsuwan is Secretary General Tim Soutphommasane is a Research Chris Urbanski is a graduate of the of the Association of Southeast Asian Fellow at the National centre for college of Asia and the Pacific, Australian Nations. he was formerly Foreign minister Australian Studies, monash university, and National university, who works for the of Thailand and has a PhD from harvard author of Reclaiming Patriotism: Nation- Boston consulting Group. university. Building for Australian Progressives (2009). Issue Editor Andrew MacIntyre is Dean of the college Mahani Zainal Abidin is chief Nicholas Farrelly is a researcher in the of Asia and the Pacific, Australian National Executive of the Institute of Strategic and ARc centre of Excellence in Policing university. he is in an expert on Southeast International Studies, malaysia. She has a and Security, college of Asia and the Asian politics and convenor of the PhD from the university of london. Pacific, Australian National university. Australia-Indonesia Governance Research In 2006 he co-founded New Mandala, a Partnership. Steven Wong is Assistant Director leading academic website concerned with General of the Institute of Strategic and mainland Southeast Asia. Don Emmerson is Director of the International Studies, malaysia, and Southeast Asia Forum at the Walter h. concurrently Director of its East Asia Editors Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research center, Economic centre and the centre for china Peter Drysdale, head, EAF and EABER, Stanford university. Studies. crawford School of Economics and Government, ANu. Dewi Fortuna Anwar is a Research Gregore Lopez is a doctoral candidate at Shiro Armstrong, Executive Director, Fellow at the center for Southeast Asian the crawford School of Economics and EAF and EABER, crawford School of Studies, Kyoto university. She was Government, college of Asia and the Economics nd Government, ANu. previously Assistant to the Vice President Pacific, Australian National university. for Global Affairs and Assistant minister/ Editorial Staff State Secretary for Foreign Affairs in the Rachel Leow is a doctoral candidate at the cleo Fleming, crawford School, ANu; Indonesian government. university of cambridge. Ben Sims, crawford School, ANu; luke meehan, crawford School, ANu. Greg Fealy is a Fellow and Senior lecturer Vu Minh Khuong is an Assistant Professor in the college of Asia and the Pacific, of Economics at the lee Kuan yew School Editorial Advisers Peter Fuller, max Suich Australian National university. of Public Policy, National university of Production Peter Fuller / Words & Pics Singapore. P/l. Thitinan Pongsudhirak is Associate Professor and Director of the Institute Original Design Peter Schofield of Security and International Studies, COVER PICTURE: Man of the moment. Students at chulalongkorn university, Bangkok. a Jakarta primary school which Barack Obama Email [email protected], attended during his childhood years in Indonesia Kevin Hewison is Director of the [email protected] carolina Asia center and Professor in the reacted with delight on 5 November 2008 to news Department of Asian Studies, university of that the former pupil had been elected as the 44th North carolina at chapel hill. President of the United States. Obama attended The views expressed are those of the local schools in the Jakarta area between the ages individual authors and do not represent Nick Nostitz is a Bangkok-based photo- of six and ten. He is scheduled to visit Indonesia journalist whose work is regularly featured the views of the Crawford School, ANU, on the New Mandala website. his most later this year. EABER, EAF, or the institutions to which recent book is Red vs Yellow: Thailand’s Picture: BAY ISMOYO / AFP / Getty Images. the authors are attached. Crisis of Identity (2009). Thomas Kean is the editor of the English- language edition of The Myanmar Times newspaper, based in yangon. Ingrid Jordt is Associate Professor of Anthropology at the university of Wisconsin – milwaukee. EAST ASIA FORUM QUARTERLY APRIL-JUNE 2010 3 coNfIdeNce aNd challeNgeS ASEAN central to the region’s future SURIN PItSUwAN non-traditional threats. The questions British charge d’Affaires sent a telex to are: can East Asia cope? can ASEAN london, saying ‘These countries have uring his visit to the Association cope? Should we think about the Asia failed before. We don’t have to give D of Southeast Asian Nations Pacificc ommunity and East Asia them anything. We already gave them (ASEAN) Secretariat in Jakarta on community? I don’t see these new English!’ 4 march 2010, Kofi Anan, former formulations of regional architecture Over the past 40 years we have united Nations Secretary General, as a challenge, but as further developed a ‘workable diplomatic commended ASEAN for having recognition of the importance of our sculpture’ called ASEAN. regained its profile in the international entire region. The experience of other regional arena. This profile is something that So ASEAN needs to coordinate groupings shows that they all have needs to be nurtured further. policies in any new regional a strong core. The Europeanu nion The world wants ASEAN to achieve, architecture. In 1955, Asian and has coal and steel cooperation. and become even more successful, so African leaders gathered themselves The North American Free trade that it has one less region to worry at the Non-Aligned movement Area is centred around the united about. last October there was an Summit in Bandung. We realised back States—the strongest economy in appeal for china and East Asia to pull then that we, as individual states, the world. ASEAN is designed in the the world away from the economic needed to coexist peacefully. In 1967, reverse. ASEAN has a rather loose crisis. after the signing of the Bangkok core but draws on connectivity and As it transpired, the West asked Declaration to establish ASEAN, the dialogue to generate real partnership.