The Damage Estimation onthen the Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake Disaster Management Bureau Cabinet Office, Government of Japan Number of Deaths and Missing Persons in Previous Disasters 25, 000 Great East Japan Earthquake (19,515) 20,000 1945 Mikawa Earthquake （2,306 ) 1945 Typhoon Makurazaki(3,756 ) 1946 Showa Nankai 1, Earthquake (443) 15,000 1947 Typhoon Kathleen(1,930) 1948 Fukui Earthquake (3,769) 1959 Typhoon Ise-wan(5,098 ) 10,000 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake (6,437) 1953 Torrential Rains in Nanki(1,124) 1954 Typhoon Touyamaru(1,761) 5,000 0 '45 '47 '49 '51 '53 '55 '57 '59 '61 '63 '65 '67 '69 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 (year) Source: Chronological Scientific Table Large Earthquakes Reviewed by the Central Disaster Management Council Super wide-area earthquake extending to western Japan Tokikai Eart hqua ke Huge tsunami over 20 meters Tonankai, Nankai Earthquake Rate of earthquake production over 30 years: Oceanic-type earthquakes 60 ～ 70% in the vicinity of the Japan and Chishima Trenches Concerns about neglected timber buildings and Unknown ( Miyagi offshore cultural assets earthquake production rate over 30 years: 99% prior to the Great East Cyubu region, Kinki region Japan Earthquake) Inland Earthquake Concern about critical national operations Tokyyqo Inland Earthquake Rate of earthquake production over 30 years: approx 70% (Magnitude 7 in southern Kanto area) Oceanic earthquake Inland earthquake Rate of earthquake occurrence is by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Planning and Review for Countermeasures Against Earthquakes (1) Estimate distribution of seismic intensity, tsunami height, etc. (2)Estimate likely damage Deaths, buildings, fire, transportation, transit facilities, supply of utilities, waste dlfldisposal facilities, communications systems, etc. (()3) Countermeasures Master planning from prevention through to emergency response, recovery and rebuilding (4) Earthquake disaster management strategy Set quantitative targets for disaster prevention, implementation plans, etc. (5) Emergency response activity overview (6) Firm action plan DidDecide on t he act iiiivities to be carr idied out by eac h organ izat ion an dhld the leve lfl of support required in case of earthquakes Countermeasure Overview for Tonankai & Nankai Earthquakes(Dec.2003) PdPreparedness TiTsunami ・Build earthquake resistant housing and ・Upgrade facilities public buildings ・Automate the operation of floodgates ・Upgrade and make the transportation ・Maintain and upgrade seawalls network(land-sea-air)earthquake ・Evacuation countermeasures resistant ・Secure evacuation centers and evacuation routes ・ Drive long-term earthquake impact ・Information dissemination to citizens countermeasures ・Non-emergency use of tsunami evacuation buildings ・ Drive cultural asset protection ・Maintenance of hazard maps countermeasures ・Dissemination of disaster preparedness knowledge Wide-area ･Improve community disaster management ･Enhance disaster education ･Create an autonomous disaster organization ･Maintenance of communication methods ･Stockpile large volumes of essential goods ･Establish an earthquake support plan ･Sharing of information ･Maintenance of an activity base to support the public ･Support for isolated communities (using helicopters, etc.) ･Maintenance of disaster management centers ･Implementation of an emergency response activity plan Earthquake Disaster Management Strategy for Tonankai & Nankai Earthquake (Mar.2005) Diiisaster prevention target: Deaths and economic impact to be Reduced by Half within 10 years Deaths8,700 persons Economic Impact Approx. Approx. Approx. 27 Trillion Yen Approx. 17,800 persons 9, 100 persons 57 trillion yen (~US$270M) 31 trillion yen (deaths due to the tsunami ~8,700 persons) (~US$570M) (~US$310M) Earthquake resistant Loss of assets (earthquake housing, etc.* resitistan tht hous ing, e tc. ) Approx. 3,700 persons ~19 trillion yen (~US$190M) Improved awareness of Flow on effect outside of tsunami evacuation plans the affected region ~4 trillion yen Approx. 3,600 persons (~US$40M) Maintenance of coastal Approx. 800 persons Interruption to production facilities activities (secure labor ~3 trillion yen (~US$30M) and assets for business) Reduced fires due to Approx. 300 persons earthquake resistant housing ~1 trillion yen Restriction of east and west (~US$10M) arterial traffic (earthquake Countermeasures for steeply- Approx. 300 persons resistant bridges, etc.) inclined areas prone to landslides *Example of a specific target Ratio of earthquake resistant housing 75% to 90% Activity Plan Based on Earthquake Disaster Management Countermeasures for the Tonankai & Nankai Earthquakes (Mar.2005) To Mie Pref. To Aichi Pref. Allocation of Police 2,390 Police 2,100 Support Team Fire dept. 3,280 Fire dept. 9,930 Defense 4,700 Defense 8,000 Total 10,370 persons Total 20,030persons To Tokushima Pref. To Shizuoka Pref. PliPolice 710 Police 2,540 Fire dept. 1,280 Fire dept. 2,860 Defense 2,400 Defense 11,600 Total 4,390 persons Total 17,000 persons ※応援部隊の派遣数は最大値 ※この他に、長野、岐阜、滋賀、京都、大阪、兵庫、奈 良、岡山、広島、香川、愛媛、大分、宮崎の各府県に、合 General Support 計2,300人派遣 To Kochi Pref. To Wakayama Pref. 42,800 persons Police 2,730 Police 1,830 (tfdi(not for designa tdted area ) Fire dept. 2,960 Fire dept. 2,940 Allocation Scale Defense 8,100 Defense 6,500 Total 13,770 persons Total 11,290 persons （total） 121,950 persons Activity Plan Based on Earthquake Disaster Management Countermeasures for the Tonankai & Nankai Earthquakes (Mar.2007) To Mie Pref. To Aichi Pref. Commodity Procurement Food Approx. 7.7m meals Drinkable water approx. 27,000t Milk powder for infants approx. 2.9t Food Approx. 23m meals Blaaetsapponkets approx. 40,000 Milk powder for infants approx. 8.6t Diapers approx. 91,000 Diapers approx. 52,000 Portable toilets approx. 4,900 To Tokushima Pref. Drinkblkable water approx. 2,400t Food Approx. 2.8m meals Milk powder for infants approx. 1.1t Blankets approx. 5,100 To Shizuoka Pref. Diapers approx. 20,000 Food Approx. 5.4m meals Portable toilets approx. 770 Milk powder for infants approx. 2.9t Diapers approx. 51,000 To Kochi Pref. To Wakayama Pref. Drinkable water approx. 3,700t Food Approx. 4.1m meals *Only indicated for major items Food Approx. 4.6m meals Milk powder for infants approx. 1.2t Milk powder for infants approx. 1.5t Blankets approx. 29,000 *Sufficient for one work Blankets approx. 64,000 Diapers approx. 61, 000 Diapers approx. 68,000 Portable toilets approx. 1,000 Portable toilets approx. 1,600 Activity Plan Based on Earthquake Disaster Management Countermeasures for the Tonankai & Nankai Earthquakes (Mar.2007) Wide-area Medical Service Iruma Airbase Target number of Haneda Airport patients to transport-584 Okayama Airport Atsugi Airbase Hiros hima-nihiishi Airpor t Matsumoto Airport Hiroshima Airport Komatsu Airfield Hohu Airfield Nagoya Airfield Itami Airport Takamatsu Airport YAiYao Airport Matsuyama Airport Mie University Fukuoka Airport Nagasaki Airport Hamamatsu Base Asutamuland Tokushima Oita Airport Miyakawa Love River Park Kumamoto Airport Shin-Chitose Airport Miyazaki Airport SdiAitSendai Airport Nanki-Shirahama Kochi University Airport Haneda Airport Sukumo City General Playground Medical staff required ：Wide-area transport hub in 217 disaster affected area Komatsu Airfield Available DMAT* Blue：Meeting hub for medical Miho Airfield team Fukuoka Airport 109 Red：Wide-area transport hub *DMAT: Disaster Medical Assistance Team outside disaster affected area Large Earthquakes in the Nankai Trough Area Since 1600 Large earthquakes occur roughly every 100 to 150 years Past Earthquakes Reviewed by the Central Disaster Management Council Past earthquakes reviewed by the Earthquakes studies Central Disaster Management Council Trench-type earthquakes 1. Repeated occurrence (1) T o kai earth quak e (M8 .0) 2. High ratio of occurrence and highly imminent (2) Tonankai, Nankai earthquakes（M8.6) - Predicted to occur within the next 100 years - Excluded if active fault earthquakes occurred (3) Japan oceanic trench, Chishima trench within the past 500 years earthquakes （M7.6 to 8.6） 3. Confirmed in written records as having a significant impact Inland earthquakes 4. Predicted magnitude – 7 to 8 (4) Tokyo inland earthquake（M6.9 to 7.5） 5. Impact on economic, social and critical national operati ons (5)Chubu-area, Kinki-area inland earthquakes（M6.9 to 8.0） Great East Japan Earthquake March 11, 2011 Magnitude 9.0 which was not Breadth and origin of seismic wave was Tsunami height far exceeded expected near Japan unprecedented since records have been kept expectations Update of Disaster Management Countermeasures Central Disaster Management Council Report by the Committee for Technical Investigation on Countermeasures for Earthquakes and Tsunamis Based on the Lessons Learned from the “2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake”(September 28 th, 2011) In order to predict earthquakes and tsunamis in the future, “A study should be conducted of the largest-possible earthquakes and tsunamis by considering the full gamut of possibilities.” “Even though it may be unrealistic to adequately provide sufficient facilities and equipment to prepare for a massive earthquake and tsunami which may never eventuate, we still need to ensure that we set the assumptions without holding back.” Disaster Management Countermeasures Updated Committee for Technical Investigation of Countermeasures for Earthquakes and Tsunamis Based on the Lessons Learned from the “2011