County Durham Issues and Options Stage Strategic Housing Market Assessment (Part 1) 2016 Durham County Council Final Report June 2016 Main Contact: Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0191 386 0026 Website: www.arc4.co.uk © 2015 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) June 2016 County Durham Issues and Options SHMA (Part 1) June 2016 Page | 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................... 7 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................... 11 Background and objectives ............................................................................ 11 National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) requirements ........................... 11 Planning Practice Guidance ........................................................................... 12 Definitions ....................................................................................................... 14 Geography ...................................................................................................... 15 Presentation of data ....................................................................................... 19 Report structure .............................................................................................. 19 2. Policy and strategic review ............................................................................. 21 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 21 Local strategic priorities .................................................................................. 21 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 23 3. Defining the Housing Market Area .................................................................. 24 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 24 House prices and rates of change in house prices ......................................... 25 Relative affordability ....................................................................................... 28 Household migration and search patterns ...................................................... 29 Travel to work trends ...................................................................................... 34 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 35 4. Establishing an objectively assessed need for housing .................................. 36 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 36 Demographic Starting Point ............................................................................ 36 Adjusting household projection-based estimates: demography ...................... 36 Adjusting household projection-based estimates: economic assumptions ..... 37 Economic Forecasts ....................................................................................... 38 Market signals ................................................................................................ 38 Establishing an Objectively Assessed Housing Need ..................................... 43 5. County Durham housing market review .......................................................... 44 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 44 Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure .......... 44 Tenure characteristics .................................................................................... 51 Development profile of market dwellings ........................................................ 61 Key market drivers .......................................................................................... 63 Current households in need............................................................................ 67 Affordable housing requirements .................................................................... 72 6. The need for all types of housing.................................................................... 77 7. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues .......................................................... 85 June 2016 County Durham Issues and Options SHMA (Part 1) June 2016 Page | 3 The Housing Market Area ............................................................................... 85 Establishing an Objectively Assessed Housing Need ..................................... 85 The current housing market ............................................................................ 86 Housing markets and mobility......................................................................... 86 Future housing market .................................................................................... 87 NPPF requirements ........................................................................................ 89 Final comments .............................................................................................. 90 Introduction to Technical Appendices........................................................................ 91 Technical Appendix A: Research Methodology ......................................................... 92 Technical Appendix B: Policy Review ....................................................................... 95 Technical Appendix C: Estate and letting agent review of the housing market ....... 108 Technical Appendix D: Housing need calculations .................................................. 117 Technical Appendix E: Monitoring and updating ..................................................... 131 Technical Appendix F: National Planning Policy Framework and Planning Practice Guidance Checklist .............................................................. 134 List of Tables Table ES1 Net annual affordable housing imbalance by property size and designation 2016/17 to 2020/21 ............................................................. 9 Table ES2 Summary of open market dwelling stock and preferences ................... 10 Table 3.1 Comparative house price change 2000-2015 with neighbouring Districts, the North East and England .................................................. 25 Table 3.2 Relative affordability of lower quartile (LQ) prices by district (residence based) ................................................................................ 28 Table 3.3 Relative affordability of median prices by district (residence base) ...... 29 Table 3.4 Origin of moving households ............................................................... 30 Table 3.5 Origin of moving households ............................................................... 31 Table 3.6 Residential mobility – movement between different tenures ................ 33 Table 3.7 Residential mobility – profile of properties moved into by type and size ...................................................................................................... 33 Table 3.8 First choice destination of households planning to move in next five years ............................................................................................. 34 Table 4.1 Housing Market Signals ....................................................................... 39 Table 4.2 Housing Market Signals in comparator districts, region and England ................................................................................................ 40 Table 4.3 Dwelling completions 2002/03 to 2014/15 .......................................... 42 Table 5.1 Dwelling stock and occupancy across County Durham ....................... 44 June 2016 County Durham Issues and Options SHMA (Part 1) June 2016 Page | 4 Table 5.2 Property type and size of occupied dwellings across County Durham ................................................................................................ 45 Table 5.3 Dissatisfaction with state of repair by monitoring area, property tenure, age and type ............................................................................ 48 Table 5.4 Lower Quartile and median price and income required to be affordable ............................................................................................. 51 Table 5.5 Profile of private rented sector in County Durham ............................... 54 Table 5.6 High income household dwelling aspirations and expectations ........... 59 Table 5.7 Open market dwelling stock and preferences ...................................... 62 Table 5.8 Summary of open market dwelling stock and preferences ................... 62 Table 5.9 Comparison between current dwelling stock and market aspirations ........................................................................................... 63 Table 5.10 Primary market drivers ......................................................................... 63 Table 5.12 Ranking of proposed priorities by key stakeholders ............................. 65 Table 5.13 Housing need in County Durham ......................................................... 68 Table 5.14 Households in need across County Durham ........................................ 69 Table 5.15 Housing need by tenure ....................................................................... 69 Table 5.16 Housing need by household type ........................................................