Risks associated with Tilletia indica, the newly-listed EU quarantine pathogen, the cause of Karnal bunt of wheat EC 5. framework project QLK5-1999-01554 Sansford, Claire; Murray, Gordon; Brennan, John; Leth, Vibeke; Porter, John R.; Kelly, Paul; Miglietta, Franco; Riccioni, Luca; Magnus, Håkon; Petrson, Gary Publication date: 2006 Document version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Citation for published version (APA): Sansford, C., Murray, G., Brennan, J., Leth, V., Porter, J. R., Kelly, P., Miglietta, F., Riccioni, L., Magnus, H., & Petrson, G. (2006). Risks associated with Tilletia indica, the newly-listed EU quarantine pathogen, the cause of Karnal bunt of wheat: EC 5. framework project QLK5-1999-01554. EC. Deliverable Report DL 6.1 Deliverable Report 6.5 Download date: 25. Sep. 2021 EC Fifth Framework Project QLK5-1999-01554: Risks associated with Tilletia indica, the newly-listed EU quarantine pathogen, the cause of Karnal bunt of wheat Deliverable Report DL 6.1 Report on the risk of entry, establishment and socio-economic loss for Tilletia indica in the European Union AND Deliverable Report 6.5 Determination and report on the most appropriate risk management scheme for Tilletia indica in the EU in relation to the assessed level of risk Date: March 3rd 2006 version with revised section 1.29 dated September 29th 2006 CONTENTS Page LIST OF PARTICIPANTS AND AUTHORS 4 SUMMARY 6 1. INTRODUCTION 8 2. PEST RISK ANALYSIS FOR TILLETIA INDICA 12 3. EXPLOITATION AND DISSEMINATION OF RESULTS 122 4. POLICY RELATED BENEFITS 122 5. REFERENCES 123 6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 137 ANNEXES ANNEX I: Workpackage 6 - Description of Work Plan 138 ANNEX II: Model Contingency Plan (20/07/05) – for Eradication & Containment of Karnal bunt (Tilletia indica) 139 ANNEX III: Draft Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) of the possible Management Options for Interceptions and Outbreaks of Tilletia indica – November 2004 151 ANNEX IV: Economic Costs of Scenario 1, ‘Large’ Karnal bunt outbreak, Year 1, managed according to an earlier draft of the model Contingency Plan. 161 ANNEX V: Economic Costs of Scenario 2, ‘Small’ Karnal bunt outbreak, Year 1, managed according to an earlier draft of the model Contingency Plan. 162 ANNEX VI: Components of Costs in Affected Region of Scenario 1, ‘Large’ Karnal bunt outbreak, Years 1 to 10) managed according to an earlier draft of the model Contingency Plan. 163 ANNEX VII: Components of Costs in Affected Region of Scenario 2, ‘Small’ Karnal bunt outbreak, Years 1 to 10) managed according to an earlier draft of the model Contingency Plan. 164 2 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Eurostat data: Imports (tonnes) of ‘common’ and durum wheat into the former EU 15 from countries where T. indica is known to occur – 2000 to 2003. 23 Table 1a: FAOSTAT data: Imports of wheat (tonnes) into the current EU 25 from countries where T. indica is known to occur – July 2000 to June 2001 (2001) and July 2001 to June 2002 (2002). 24 Table 2: FAS data: Exports of unmilled wheat (tonnes) from the USA to the EU 25, 2000 - 2004 25 Table 3: Wheat and triticale production (area harvested – hectares) in descending order of productivity by EU Member State in 2004. 36 Table 4: Mean maximum daily temperatures (°C) recorded at the heading to flowering (GS 53–71), grain filling (GS 73–77), estimated for heading to grain filling (GS 53–77) and recorded for grain hardening (GS 83–87) stages of wheat development and levels of Karnal bunt (% CI, mean of 3 wheat cultivars) under 5 different situations after inoculation with T. indica (from Kumar et al., 2003). 57 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: The PRA area: The European Union Member States – a subset of the EPPO Region. 13 Figure 2: Wheat grain infected with Tilletia indica and free teliospores (USDA, G. Peterson). 27 Figure 3: Unloading imported wheat at a port in northern England. 32 Figure 4: Disease cycle of Karnal bunt (from Nagarajan et al., 1997), reproduced with permission of CABI. 40 Figure 5: Stages of development of wheat over which teliospores must germinate, sporidia infect the head and colonisation of seed begin (GS 37–75). 49 Figure 6: Mean HTI values (1961-1990) for India in March and Great Britain in June (Baker et al., 2000). 50 Figure 7: HTI values for infection of T. aestivum by T. indica and commencement of disease development for the years 1995-2002 for three sowing dates in Europe, where the HTI was calculated to be between 2.2-3.3 during the critical phenology period of the wheat crop. The maximum number of cases (referred to as ‘years’ in the figure) is three sowings x eight years, or 24 cases. 53 Figure 8: HTI values for infection of T. durum by T. indica and commencement of disease development for the years 1995-2002 for three sowing dates in Europe, where the HTI was calculated to be between 2.2-3.3 during the critical phenology period of the wheat crop. The maximum number of cases (referred to as ‘years’ in the figure) is three sowings x eight years, or 24 cases. 54 Figure 9: Mean monthly air temperature (˚C) in Europe in July 60 Figure 10: Locations of four of the five named locations of Karnal bunt outbreaks in 63 irrigated wheat crops in South Africa. 3 LIST OF PARTICIPANTS AND AUTHORS Workpackage Manager: Dr C Sansford, CSL, York, UK List of Participants Partner no. Legal status Key Postal address Telephone no’s, fax no’s and & name contact email addresses 1. Co-ordinator Dr Claire CSL, Sand Hutton, +44 (0) 1904 462225 CSL Sansford North Yorkshire Fax. +44 (0) 1904 462250 UK, YO41 1LZ Email [email protected] 2. Contractor Dr Gordon Wagga Wagga Agricultural +61 2 6938 1879 NSW Murray Institute, Private Bag, Wagga Fax +61 2 6938 1809 Agriculture Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia Email [email protected]. gov.au (Now NSW Sub- Dr John +61 2 6938 1851 Dept. of contractor to Brennan Fax +61 2 6938 1809 Primary Partner 5 Email [email protected]. Industries) gov.au 3. Contractor Dr Vibeke Danish Government Institute of +45 35 28 37 23 DGISP Leth Seed Pathology for Developing Fax +45 35 28 37 01 Countries, Thorvaldsensvej 57, Email [email protected] DK-1871, Frederiksberg C, Denmark 4. Contractor Prof. Dr Department of Agricultural +45 35 28 3377/3575 KVL John R. Sciences, The Royal Veterinary Fax +45 35 28 3574 Porter and Agricultural University, 10 Email [email protected] Agrovej, Taastrup, 2630, Denmark 5. Contractor Dr Paul Teagasc, Rural Economy +353 1 6376050 TEAGASC Kelly Research Centre, 19 Fax +353 1 6688443 Sandymount Avenue, Dublin 4, Email [email protected] Ireland 7. Contractor Dr Franco IBIMET, +39 55 301422 CNR IATA Miglietta P.le delle Cascine, 18, 50144 Fax +39 55 308910 (Now Firenze, Italy Email [email protected]. IBIMET) cnr.it 8. Contractor Dr Luca Istituto Sperimentale per la +39 0682070329 ISPaVe Riccioni1 Patologia Vegetale, Fax +39 0686802296 Via C.G. Bertero, 22 Email [email protected] I-00156 Rome Italy 9. Contractor Dr Håkon The Norwegian Crop Research +47 64949244 NCRI Magnus Institute, Fax +47 64949226 Plant Protection Centre, Email haakon.magnus@@biofors Planteforsk, Fellesbygget k.no N-1432 AAS, Norway 10. Contractor Mr Gary ARS/USDA, FD-WSRU, +301 619 7313 USDA ARS Peterson Fort Detrick, Maryland Fax +301 619 2880 MD21702, USA Email [email protected] ov 1 From 1 January 2004 Dr Luca Riccioni replaced Dr Porta-Puglia as the Key Contact for ISPaVe. Dr Porta-Puglia is now working as a mycologist at the Ministry for Rural Affairs and the Environment, Department of Plant Health, Agricultural Research & Development Centre, Għammieri, Marsa CMR 01, Malta. 4 Authors of report: C. Sansford (CSL), R. Baker (CSL), J. Brennan (NSW Ag.), F. Ewert (ex. KVL), B. Gioli (IBIMET), A. Inman (CSL), P. Kelly (TEAGASC), A. Kinsella (TEAGASC), V. Leth (DGISP), H. Magnus (NCRI), F. Miglietta (IBIMET), G. Murray (NSW Ag.), G. Peterson (USDA), A. Porta- Puglia (ex. ISPaVE), J. Porter (KVL), T. Rafoss (NCRI), L. Riccioni (ISPaVe), F. Thorne (TEAGASC), M. Valvassori (ISPaVe). Project Co-ordinator: Dr Claire Sansford, Plant Health Group, Central Science Laboratory, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), Sand Hutton, York, UK, YO41 1LZ. 5 SUMMARY Tilletia indica became listed as a I/AI quarantine pest in the European Commission (EC) Plant Health Directive in 1997 following a Pest Risk Analysis produced by the UK which had been triggered by the first findings of T. indica in wheat crops in the USA. Following international debate as to the risk associated with T. indica a revised Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) for Tilletia indica has been produced using a draft of the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisations (EPPO) PRA scheme. This is the culmination of a 4-year EU Fifth Framework Project (‘Karnal bunt risks’) and reflects the work of 9 Partner Organisations in 7 countries including Australia and the USA. The views expressed within this PRA do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission who partly-funded the work or the National Plant Protection Organisations of any of the individual countries either contributing to or cited in the PRA. The risk of entry has been evaluated based upon trade data and data on interceptions of T. indica in the European Union (EU) and this shows that the pathogen has the potential to enter the EU. The risk of establishment has been determined by a range of methods. These include: 1. Experimental work with the pathogen in European field conditions to determine the longevity of teliospores of T.