www.africa-confidential.com 3 May 2002 Vol 43 No 9 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL NIGERIA II 2 NIGERIA I Khaki blues, business suits The generals’ election The military has helped tear the country apart but civilians still defer There are worries whether President Obasanjo’s army can to the soldiers and politicians hold together against growing It is a measure of Nigeria’s political class that in next year’s presidential election, the two most likely communal and religious clashes candidates – Olusegun Obasanjo and Muhammadu Buhari – are retired generals and former military ahead of next year’s polls. And, if leaders. And Nigeria’s wealthiest and most influential kingmaker, another retired general and military it does, its senior officers may want leader, Ibrahim Babangida, may well offer money to both sides. On 25 April, General Obasanjo, to take back power again. ‘persuaded’ by his supporters, declared he would seek a second term; on the same day, Gen. Buhari joined the biggest opposition group, the All People’s Party, on whose ticket he may stand for President. LIBERIA 3 Buhari and Obasanjo hold strong and contrary religious convictions: Obasanjo is a ‘born again’ Christian who has preached at the fundamentalist Winners’ Chapel; Buhari exudes asceticism, publicly Rebels without a plan supporting the extension of the Sharia criminal code (AC Vol 42 No 17). Obasanjo is Yoruba from Ogun Rebels threaten President Taylor State in the south-west; Buhari is Fulani from Katsina in the far north. and give him a pretext to ban Over this looming battle lurks the ghost of a late military leader, Gen. Sani Abacha. Last week, it political activities. The main threat emerged that the Obasanjo government’s National Security Advisor, another retired general, Aliyu still comes from malcontents within Mohammed Gusau, had reached agreement with the Abacha family and the banking authorities in his own security system. Switzerland, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein and Britain’s Channel Islands for the return of some US$1 billion of state funds stolen by Abacha. Under the deal, the Abacha family may keep some $100 million LIBERIA 4 which they claim that Abacha earned before he became head of state. Nigerians are outraged but government lawyers hail it as a victory which avoids years of litigation of the sort that delayed the UN gumshoes in Philippines’ government in retrieving funds stolen by the late President Ferdinand Marcos. Taylorland It is significant at home, too. Obasanjo’s government will have another $1 bn. in its coffers for popular spending before the polls. The Abacha family might use its $100 mn. to fund some of its political friends. The UN Security Council is likely One of Buhari’s strongest supporters is Wada Nas, former special duties advisor to the Abacha regime. to recommend tougher measures against Liberia on 7 May after a new UN report claims the Taylor Olusegun’s head-start regime is still breaking arms Obasanjo starts the race well ahead. At an Easter meeting on his farm in Ota, Ogun State, 20 of the 36 embargoes and travel bans. state governors pledged support for a second term. They were joined by People’s Democratic Party officials such as Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and former PDP Chairman Solomon Lar. Obasanjo SENEGAL 5 has appointed veteran Finance Minister Adamu Ciroma to run his campaign and the key organiser will be master fixer Tony Annenih, now Minister for Works. Wade’s wide world Even with the majority of state governors behind him, incumbency and approval by Western powers, At international conferences and Obasanjo may not have it easy. Personal opponents, inside and outside the PDP, are determined to derail talks on Madagascar, President him. They include the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Ghali Na’Abba; Kano’s political Wade scores high. At home the chieftain, businessman Abubakar Rimi; former Biafran leader Chukwuemeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu; Casamance war still simmers and Sokoto State Governor Attahiru Bafarawa; and the Chairman of the trustees of the northern-based the government’s failure on state Arewa Consultative Forum, Sunday Awoniyi. They are a disparate bunch with their own political utilities holds back the economy. ambitions but several may be willing to back Buhari against Obasanjo. There is much discontent on which to capitalise. Both the northern elite and the talakawa feel betrayed; ZAMBIA 6 they voted for Obasanjo in greater numbers than did his own Yoruba people, yet the northern contractors feel edged out and the poorest are hit by rising unemployment and crime. Figures such as Senator Joseph Who’s got the money? Waku have been exploiting grievances about the massacres in Benue State (AC Vol 42 No 22) to mobilise A divided opposition and backroom Tiv against Obasanjo. Abia State Governor Orji Kalu and Ojukwu are winning support in the south-east deals help President Mwanawasa by accusing Obasanjo of marginalising the Igbo. Above all, activist groups in the Niger Delta argue that and Western donors defer Obasanjo’s civilian order has done little more for them than military dictatorship. sanctions on the disputed It will be difficult to corral this political hostility into a coherent opposition. That may account for the elections. reluctance of high-profile candidates to challenge Obasanjo. A key figure in the northern elite, former Trade Minister Mahmud Tukur, spent months trying to persuade Buhari to stand. At first he seemed POINTERS 8 reluctant: ‘When I was head of state before, I was in command of the army, an institution I thought I understood, and things in the country were not as bad as they are now. But it did not work. Now I am being Sudan/Uganda, Mali asked to come back under politics, which I do not understand, by politicians, who I do not like, when the & Zambia situation is much worse. How can that work?’ he told our correspondent. 3 May 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 9 Now, he said, he was getting backing from civilians who had south-west. Obasanjo, a former general, military ruler, first-hand vehemently opposed him as military leader: ‘They say they are afraid observer of several coups and a Yoruba seemed the best man to put if things continue as they are, they will lose everything,’ Buhari said. things straight. Promptly after his inauguration in May 1999, he ‘Look at the country now. This absolute abuse of procedure, especially ordered into retirement over 100 senior officers who had served in with respect to the financial system and accountability, is a problem... military regimes. He aimed to foster the soldiers’ loyalty to the new [Obasanjo] has just totally failed.’ democratic constitutional order, offered the chance of serving in Such views have wide resonance but Buhari has less to say about a regional peace-keeping forces and won promises of foreign backing national constitutional conference or more revenues for the oil states for military reform. of the south-south. Many, especially in the south, fear a Buhari The promised restructuring has not gone far. The navy has no ships government would revert to a tough central commandist approach to fit to go to sea. The air force has crashed one of its second-hand Mi- government. He is also wary that some well placed northerners want 35 attack helicopters and has only one reliable Hercules C-130 heavy- to promote him as a way to bargain with Obasanjo. lift transport aircraft. The army spends 75 per cent of its budget on Although Obasanjo is now unpopular in the north, Vice-President ‘overheads’, while troops complain of pay arrears and squalid barracks. Atiku could claw back much of the support he won in 1999. Atiku Senior officers lobby for bigger budgets but Obasanjo and his cabinet controls the political machine set up by the late Brigadier Shehu Musa say many of their requests lack justification. Yar’Adua, Obasanjo’s Chief of General Staff in the 1976-79 military government, who was murdered in jail by the Abacha regime. If Atiku Private security and US doubts stays in the Obasanjo camp, he could mobilise Yar’Adua’s constituency In 2000, the United States offered to help the Ministry of Defence and – much of the north and the Middle Belt – for a second term. Defence Headquarters in Abuja, through a contract with the Virginia- Much depends on whether Obasanjo chooses Atiku as running mate. based ‘private’ security company Military Professional Resources Many in Abuja believe that Atiku wants the presidency now and is Incorporated. Work on the planning and budgeting process began unenthusiastic about a second Obasanjo term. Others claim that hopefully but Nigeria is still in arrears on its payments for the US$3.5 Babangida has told Obasanjo that the price of his support in the 2003 million programme for 2000 and has paid nothing for 2001 or 2002. elections is that he drops Atiku (who is Babangida’s most serious In late April, US President George W. Bush authorised $4 mn. of political rival in the north). If Obasanjo and Atiku part company, it will immediate military aid for Nigeria, saying it was required for an sharply increase Buhari’s electoral chances and disrupt the PDP’s unforeseen emergency. This either meant paying off the arrears to calculations of a comfortable win next year. It might entice Babangida MPRI or new kinds of military cooperation. Washington’s worries into the race. Which ever way it falls, the chances are that Nigeria’s about instability in West Africa are enlivened by reports of armed next head of state will be a general – recycled or otherwise. Islamist groups, secret trading and money laundering. In return for aid, Washington wants Nigeria to be its regional policeman.