JFPR Grant No. 9078-TAJ Community-based Rural Road Maintenance Project Baseline Survey and Poverty Impact Assessment Report Draft Final Report April 2007 Gregory R. Gajewski, Ph.D. Poverty Impact Specialist and Principal in Charge Project Implementation Unit Ministry of Transport Republic of Tajikistan The Louis Berger Group, Inc. THE LOUIS BERGER GROUP, INC. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS / ABBREVIATIONS / TAJIK WORDS ...........................................................................4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .........................................................................................................................................5 KEY FINDINGS ..........................................................................................................................................................6 1. INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................................................8 1.1. PROJECT DESCRIPTION ..................................................................................................................................8 1.2. OBJECTIVE OF BASELINE SURVEY AND POVERTY IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT..........................................9 1.2.1. Unique Feature – Development Impact Study with a Control Group ..................................................9 2. PRIMARY DATA COLLECTION ...................................................................................................................9 2.1. DATA/INFORMATION COLLECTION TOOLS.....................................................................................................9 2.2. LOCATIONS AND SAMPLING.........................................................................................................................10 2.2.1. Small-Sample Surveys.........................................................................................................................11 2.2.2. Focus Group Discussions...................................................................................................................13 2.2.3. Traffic Counts.....................................................................................................................................13 2.2.4. Formats and Methods to Collect Data for Multi-Criteria Analysis....................................................13 2.3. TIMING ........................................................................................................................................................13 3. SELECTION OF PROJECT ROADS.............................................................................................................13 3.1. MULTI-CRITERIA ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................16 3.1.1. Multi-Criteria Analysis: Form to Assist in the Selection of Project Roads by Mahallas (Communities).....................................................................................................................................................17 3.2. SELECTED PROJECT ROADS .........................................................................................................................18 4. BASELINE CONDITIONS FOR FUTURE MONITORING & EVALUATION AND CONDUCTING POVERTY IMPACT ASSESSMENT – KEY ELEMENTS..................................................................................21 4.1. DEFINING CORRIDOR OF INFLUENCE AND ESTIMATING NUMBER OF BENEFICIARIES...................................21 4.2. DEFINING THE “POOR” AND ESTIMATING POVERTY INCIDENCE ..................................................................21 4.3. USE OF CONTROL GROUP ............................................................................................................................23 PART I: BASELINE CONDITIONS.......................................................................................................................24 5. BASELINE CONDITIONS..............................................................................................................................24 5.1. OVERVIEW...................................................................................................................................................24 5.1.1. Demographic Profile of the Respondents ...........................................................................................26 5.2. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ..................................................................................................................................28 5.2.1. Number of Household Members .........................................................................................................28 5.2.2. Household Income ..............................................................................................................................28 5.2.3. Occupation .........................................................................................................................................29 5.2.4. Household Roles.................................................................................................................................29 5.2.5. Agriculture Products and Livestock ...................................................................................................30 5.2.6. Land Ownership .................................................................................................................................32 5.2.7. Access to a Road Network ..................................................................................................................33 5.3. PASSENGER SURVEY....................................................................................................................................33 5.3.1. Number of Household Members .........................................................................................................33 5.3.2. Passenger Household Income.............................................................................................................34 5.3.3. Food Insecurity...................................................................................................................................34 5.3.4. HIV/AIDS............................................................................................................................................35 5.3.5. Access to Road Network .....................................................................................................................35 5.3.6. Access to Markets ...............................................................................................................................35 5.3.7. Access to Social Services (Schools & Hospitals)................................................................................36 JFPR Grant No. 9078-TAJ: Community-based Rural Road Maintenance Project 2 Baseline Survey and Poverty Impact Assessment Report: Draft Final Report April 2007 THE LOUIS BERGER GROUP, INC. 5.3.8. Travel Mode & Cost ...........................................................................................................................36 5.4. DRIVER SURVEY ..........................................................................................................................................37 5.4.1. Number of Household Members .........................................................................................................38 5.4.2. Driver Household Income...................................................................................................................38 5.4.3. Food Insecurity...................................................................................................................................38 5.4.4. HIV/AIDS............................................................................................................................................38 5.4.5. Education............................................................................................................................................39 5.4.6. Access to Road Network .....................................................................................................................39 5.4.6.1. Travel Distance and Time ..............................................................................................................39 5.4.6.2. Travel Mode ...................................................................................................................................39 5.4.6.3. Travel Cost .....................................................................................................................................40 5.5. SHOP SURVEY..............................................................................................................................................40 5.5.1. Access to Road Network .....................................................................................................................40 5.5.2. Shop Income (Gross Income)..............................................................................................................41 5.6. FARMER SURVEY.........................................................................................................................................41 5.6.1. Access to Road Network .....................................................................................................................41 5.6.1.1. Travel Distance and Time ..............................................................................................................41