Statistical Design, Analysis and Graphics for the Guadalupe River Assessment Technical Memoranda Two, Four & Five Report prepared for the Santa Clara Valley Water District Agreement Number A3562F by San Francisco Estuary Institute & Aquatic Science Center CONTRIBUTION NO. 687 FEBRUARY 2013 SAN FRANCISCO ESTUARY INSTITUTE & THE AQUATIC SCIENCE CENTER 4911 Central Ave, Richmond, CA 94804, p: 510-746-7334 f: 510-746-7300 This report should be cited as: San Francisco Estuary Institute & Aquatic Science Center (2013). Statistical Design, Analysis and Graphics for the Guadalupe River Assessment. Technical Memoranda Two, Four & Five. Report prepared for the Santa Clara Valley Water District Agreement Number A3562F. Contribution No. 687. Richmond, California. For more information, contact: Sarah Lowe, (510) 746-7384 or [email protected] TableofContents TableofContents..............................................................................................................................................i ListofFiguresandTables...........................................................................................................................iii Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................1 ManagementQuestions................................................................................................................................1 GeographicSetting.........................................................................................................................................2 Methods.............................................................................................................................................................3 Level-1MappingMethods........................................................................................................................3 Level-2RapidAssessmentMethods............................................. .........................................................7 StudyDesign..............................................................................................................................................................................7 CRAMFieldAssessments..................................................................................................................................................10 DataAnalysesoftheCRAMResults............................................................................................................................10 Results.............................................................................................................................................................11 Extent,Distribution,andOwnershipoftheStreams......................................................................11 1)Whatistheextentanddistributionofstreamecosystemresources?................................................11 2)Whatistheextentanddistributionofstreamassociatedriparianareas?.......................................13 3)Whatistheextentanddistributionofnon-riverinewetlands?.............................................................17 4)Whoownsthestreams?..............................................................................................................................................19 5)Howandwherearethestreamsinterrupted?................................................................................................21 StreamEcosystemConditionBasedonGuadalupeRiverCRAMAssessments........................23 1)Whataretheconditionsofstreamecosystemresources?........................................................................24 2)WhatarethelikelystressorsimpactingstreamconditionbasedonCRAM?..................................32 3)WhataretheLevelsofService(LOS)forstreamecosystemresources?...........................................37 StreamConditionRisks..........................................................................................................................38 i 1)Whatarethelikelysourcesofrisktostreamecosystemresources?..................................................38 2)Whatisthelikelihoodthatsourcesofriskmayimpactstreamecosystemconditions?...........39 3)Whatarethelikelyconsequencesoftheseriskstostreamecosystemcondition?......................39 4)Whatarethefundamentalriskstostreamecosystemsrepresentedbyclimatechange?........40 References......................................................................................................................................................43 AppendixAGuadalupeRiverCRAMAssessmentResults2012....................................................47 ii ListofFiguresandTables Figure1.MapoftheGuadalupeRiverwatershedboundaryandstreamnetworkforthefreshwater reachesofthestreams............................................................................................................................4 Figure2.MapshowingtheGuadalupeRiverwatershedCRAMassessmentstudyarea...........................8 Figure3.MapoftheaquaticresourcesintheGuadalupeRiverwatershedbasedonBAARI....12 Figure4.Distributionoftheestimatedriparianareasbyfunctionalwidthclass.....................................15 Figure5.Lengthsofstreamswithriparianareasbyfunctionalwidthclass.............................................16 Figure6.Comparisonofthedistributionofhistorical(circa1850)(mapA)andmodern(mapB)aquatic resources..............................................................................................................................................18 Figure7.Comparisonofhistorical(circa1850)andmodernstreamlengthsfortheGuadalupeRiver valleyfloor............................................................................................................................................19 Figure8.MapoflandsownedbytheDistrict.........................................................................................20 Figure9.ProportionsofstreamsintheGuadalupewatershedwithinmunicipalboundaries.................21 Figure10.Mapofstormdrains(channelconnectors),highwaysandroadsthatinterruptthestream network.................................................................................................................................................22 Figure11.MapshowingthedistributionofassessedandrejectedCRAMRiverineAAs.........................23 Figure12.Plotofthecumulativedistributionfunction(CDF)ofCRAMIndexScoresfortheGuadalupe Riverwatershed....................................................................................................................................25 Figure13.Plotsofthecumulativedistributionfunctions(CDFs)ofCRAMIndexScoresfortheurban(n= 30AAs)andnon-urbanstreams(n=23AAs).........................................................................................27 Figure14.Plotsofthecumulativedistributionfunctions(CDFs)ofCRAMIndexScoresfortheGuadalupe Riverwatershed(n=53)andCoyoteCreekwatershed(n=77).................................................................28 Figure15.Plotsofcumulativedistributionfunctions(CDFs)forCRAMIndexScoresfortheGuadalupe Riverwatershed(n=53)andStatewideRiverineAssessment.................................................................29 Figure16.DistributionofCRAMAAsbasedonequalintervalhealthclasses.........................................31 Figure17.MedianCRAMIndexandAttributescoresforurbanarea(n=30),non-urbanarea(n=23)and entireGuadalupeRiverwatershed(n=53).............................................................................................32 Figure18.MedianCRAMIndexandAttributescoresfortheGuadalupeRiverwatershed(n=53)andthe CoyoteCreekwatershed(n=77..............................................................................................................33 Figure19.EcologicalServiceIndex(ESI)fortheGuadalupeRiverwatershed..........................................37 FigureA-1.MapofCRAMAssessmentAreas(AAs)sampledintheGuadalupeRiverAssessment,201248 Table1.Descriptionofaquaticresourcespresentedinthemapsinthisreport.......................................5 Table2.SummaryofGuadalupeRiverAssessmentGRTSparametersforthesampledraw.....................9 Table3.SummaryofthelengthofsurfacechannelsandstormdrainsintheGuadalupeRiverwatershed ..............................................................................................................................................................11 Table4.Milesofstream-associatedriparianareasforeachoffiveriparianwidthclasses.....................13 Table5.SummaryofCRAMIndexScoresfortheGuadalupeRiver........................................................24 watershedbasedontheCRAMsurvey2012..........................................................................................24 iii Table6.StreamhealthconditionbasedontheequalintervalhealthclassesfortheGuadalupeRiverand CoyoteCreekwatersheds......................................................................................................................32 Table7.MeanmetricscoresfortheBufferandLandscapeContextAttributeandfortheHydrology Attributeinurbanandnon-urbanareasoftheGuadalupeRiverwatershed..........................................34 Table8.SummaryoftheCRAMStressorChecklist.................................................................................35 Table9.Listofpossiblelandscaperesponsestoclimatechange............................................................41 TableA-1.AssessmentAreadescriptions,fieldteams,andfinalCRAMscoresfortheGuadalupeRiver Assessment,2012..................................................................................................................................49