The London School of Economics and Political Science Migration and Ethnic Diversity in the Soviet and Post-Soviet Space Youngook Jang A thesis submitted to the Department of Economic History of the London School of Economics and Political Science for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy London, September 2018 1 Declaration I, Youngook Jang, certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 42,588 words, including footnotes and tables, but excluding front matter, bibliography, and appendices. 2 Acknowledgement I have been lucky to have many people helping me finish one of the hardest challenges in my life – having Dr in front of my name. My main supervisor, Professor Chris Minns, has always been there when I sought his wise advice, which guided me in the right direction during the whole process of writing a PhD thesis. The second supervisor, Professor Oliver Volckart, has also given me useful and eye-opening comments, many of which I would not have thought up for myself. I am indeed blessed that I have two supervisors who approached my thesis from different perspectives, which made me pursue not only quantitative rigour but also deeper implications hidden beyond numbers. I should add that this was exactly what I had expected when I began a PhD in the economic history department of the LSE. Also, I would like to thank all the wonderful faculty members and fellow PhD students in the department. Dr Eric Schneider, especially, has given me a chance to work as his research assistant for over two years, which helped me finance expensive life in London, not to mention that the tasks themselves were interesting and rewarding. Enrique and Greta have accompanied me from the very beginning of this journey and been good friends throughout. I also had many other good colleagues at the LSE, the list of whose names is too long to state here, and I have been benefitted from not only their comments and advice on my work, but also their attitude and achievements which motivated me in all five years I spent in the department. I have been influenced by those who I met outside the LSE. I was fortunate to have had chance to interact with great scholars and colleagues when I went to conferences in London, Keele, Tubingen, Strasburg, Bucharest, Groningen, San Jose and Boston. I owed them getting good comments on my work and intellectual stimulation from theirs. In addition, support from the members of NSG Church in Seoul, Raynes Park Korean Church and the Association of Korean Researchers and PhD Students in the UK (KRUK) made my life in a foreign land much easier. 3 I would like to express how grateful I am for my family who has been financially and mentally supporting me during the PhD years. It would not have been possible for me to complete the PhD thesis hadn’t it been for the prayers and support of my parents, sister, grandmother and parents-in-law. If I must choose only one person whose help was most important, however, I would choose my wife, Yeji. I am confident to say that this achievement is not mine but belongs to both of us, as Yeji did more than anyone can possibly do to support me. I am deeply grateful for everything she has done for me, especially after our son was born last year. Lastly, I want to add that I am religious, and I believe that there is God who planned my life before I was born and guides me as he planned. Having a PhD is a part of His plan, and He wants to use this degree to save His people. I do not know exactly how He will achieve this plan, but I do think I am blessed that I have been chosen to live the life to the fullest by knowing God and walking with Him. 4 Abstract This thesis examines the migration patterns shown in the Soviet Union and its successor countries during the late- and post-Soviet periods. I begin by constructing a comprehensive dataset regarding the net migration of major ethnic groups before and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and then investigate how migration, ethnic diversity, and conflict at the end of the Soviet period affected one another. The Soviet Union was a multi-ethnic state where members of its diverse ethnic groups showed distinctive migration patterns. However, the quantitative research from the ethnic viewpoint had been limited, mainly because there was no systemic data of the migration patterns of different ethnic groups. The first main chapter of my thesis (Chapter 2), therefore, attempts to construct a dataset of the regional net migration of major ethnic groups. It shows that many members of ethnic groups were dispersed outside of their national territories during the late-Soviet period (ethnic mixing), but the “return” of these groups to their national territories became evident after the dissolution (ethnic unmixing). Then, in the next chapter (Chapter 3), I proceed to quantitative analyses of the determinants of migration emphasising the role of ethnic factors. The results from OLS and Heckman selection estimations support the idea that ethnicity had a large influence on shaping the migration patterns in both the late- and post-Soviet periods, though the direction of influence was the opposite. Lastly, in Chapter 4, I examine whether this migration patterns contributed to changing ethnic diversity in the sending and receiving regions and then to ethnic conflict and violence in these regions, concluding that both were the case. The results of this thesis are expected not only to help better understanding the Soviet and post-Soviet migration with the enhanced dataset, but also to become a valuable addition to the discourse on the current and historical waves of globalisation and its backlash, given the relevance of the Soviet case. 5 Table of Contents ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................................................ 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................................................ 6 LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................................................ 8 LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................................................. 10 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 11 HISTORICAL CONTEXT ............................................................................................................................................ 18 PREVIOUS LITERATURE ........................................................................................................................................... 28 SUMMARY OF THE MAIN FINDINGS ........................................................................................................................... 39 CHAPTER 2. MIGRATIONS OF ETHNIC MIXING AND UNMIXING – EVIDENCE FROM A NEW DATABASE .......... 44 I. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 44 II. SOURCES AND MEASUREMENT ISSUES ................................................................................................. 47 III. ESTIMATION STRATEGY ........................................................................................................................ 53 IV. RESULTS ................................................................................................................................................ 61 V. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................ 80 CHAPTER 3. ETHNICITY AS A DETERMINANT OF MIGRATION: SOVIET AND POST-SOVIET CASE ..................... 82 I. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................... 82 II. HYPOTHESIS.......................................................................................................................................... 86 III. DATA AND METHOD ............................................................................................................................. 90 IV. MAIN RESULTS FOR POST-SOVIET SAMPLE ........................................................................................... 95 A. FULL SAMPLE: OLS AND HECKMAN 2-STEP ESTIMATIONS .................................................................................... 95 B. ROBUSTNESS CHECK ..................................................................................................................................... 97 C. SENSITIVITY VARIATIONS BY ETHNIC GROUPS ....................................................................................................