SILVERTOWN TUNNEL SUPPORTING TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION PRELIMINARY REGENERATION AND DEVELOPMENT IMPACT ASSESSMENT October 2015 This report sets out how the Scheme would impact on economic activity at a local, sub-regional, and London level. It draws on a number of strands of evidence and analysis to assess the likely economic and regeneration impacts that could result from the Scheme. This report forms part of the Preliminary Outline Business Case (OBC). This report forms part of a suite of documents that support the statutory public consultation for Silvertown Tunnel in October – November 2015. This document should be read in conjunction with other documents in the suite that provide evidential inputs and/or rely on outputs or findings. The suite of documents with brief descriptions is listed below:- Preliminary Case for the Scheme o Preliminary Monitoring and Mitigation Strategy Preliminary Charging Report Preliminary Transport Assessment Preliminary Design and Access Statement Preliminary Engineering Report Preliminary Maps, Plans and Drawings Preliminary Environmental Information Report (PEIR) o Preliminary Non Technical Summary o Preliminary Code of Construction Practice o Preliminary Site Waste Management Plan o Preliminary Energy Statement Preliminary Sustainability Statement Preliminary Equality Impact Assessment Preliminary Health Impact Assessment Preliminary Outline Business Case o Preliminary Distributional Impacts Appraisal o Preliminary Social Impacts Appraisal o Preliminary Economic Assessment Report o Preliminary Regeneration and Development Impact Assessment Preliminary Regeneration and Development Impact Assessment October 2015 Silvertown Tunnel Preliminary Regeneration and Development Impact Assessment THIS PAGE LEFT INTENTIONALLY BLANK Page 2 of 141 Silvertown Tunnel Preliminary Regeneration and Development Impact Assessment Silvertown Tunnel Preliminary Regeneration and Development Impact Assessment Planning Act 2008 Infrastructure Planning The Infrastructure Planning (Applications: Prescribed Forms and Procedure) Regulations 2009 Document Reference: ST150030-PLN-ZZZ-ZZ-RP-PC-0019 Author: Transport for London Rev. Date Approved By Signature Description 1 02/10/2015 David Rowe (TfL Lead For Consultation Sponsor) Richard De Cani (TfL MD Planning) Page 3 of 141 Silvertown Tunnel Preliminary Regeneration and Development Impact Assessment Contents SUMMARY ............................................................................................................... 25 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 35 1.1 Purpose of the report .................................................................................. 35 1.2 London’s economic potential ....................................................................... 35 1.3 East London’s economic potential ............................................................... 36 1.4 Transport problems at Blackwall and their economic consequences .......... 37 1.5 The Silvertown Tunnel Scheme .................................................................. 38 1.6 Structure of the report ................................................................................. 39 2. METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................. 41 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 41 2.2 Scenarios .................................................................................................... 42 2.3 Regeneration area definition ....................................................................... 43 2.4 Accessibility assessment ............................................................................ 45 3. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRANSPORT AND DEVELOPMENT .................. 47 3.1 Summary ..................................................................................................... 47 3.2 Introduction ................................................................................................. 48 3.3 Case studies –river crossings generally ...................................................... 52 3.4 Case study – London Docklands ................................................................. 53 3.5 Case study – Tyne Tunnel .......................................................................... 54 4. BASELINE SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND LAND USE CONDITIONS .................... 59 4.1 Summary ..................................................................................................... 59 4.2 Introduction ................................................................................................. 60 4.3 Population and demand for housing ............................................................ 60 4.4 Employment growth .................................................................................... 62 Page 4 of 141 Silvertown Tunnel Preliminary Regeneration and Development Impact Assessment 4.5 Labour market profile .................................................................................. 68 5. BARRIERS AND CONSTRAINTS TO ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND GROWTH 71 5.1 Summary ..................................................................................................... 71 5.2 Introduction ................................................................................................. 71 5.3 Importance of roads to London ................................................................... 72 5.4 Impact of congestion ................................................................................... 72 5.5 Effects on the freight industry ...................................................................... 73 5.6 Journey time reliability issues ...................................................................... 74 5.7 Access to labour market .............................................................................. 74 5.8 Access to customers and suppliers ............................................................. 79 5.9 Summary of transport constraints ............................................................... 80 5.10 Impacts of transport constraints on business location decisions and property markets ................................................................................................... 80 5.11 Non-transport constraints to economic activity ........................................ 82 6. DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL .......................................................................... 85 6.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 85 6.2 Development projections and capacity ........................................................ 85 6.3 Summary of development capacity by local area ........................................ 87 6.4 Developer views of the impact of the Scheme on development sites .......... 98 6.5 Conclusion ................................................................................................ 100 7. SCHEME IMPACTS ........................................................................................ 101 7.1 General Scheme impacts .......................................................................... 101 7.2 Congestion ................................................................................................ 101 7.3 Reliability ................................................................................................... 102 7.4 Resilience.................................................................................................. 102 7.5 Public transport links ................................................................................. 102 Page 5 of 141 Silvertown Tunnel Preliminary Regeneration and Development Impact Assessment 7.6 Overall economic impacts ......................................................................... 106 7.7 Accessibility analysis ................................................................................. 108 Access to customers ........................................................................................... 127 7.8 Summary of impacts on accessibility ........................................................ 133 8. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................ 135 8.1 The impact of road schemes and regeneration ......................................... 135 Figures Figure 2-1 20% most deprived areas in London ....................................................... 44 Figure 3-1 Journey time through the Tyne Tunnel January 2010 to May 2012 ........ 55 Figure 4-1 Historic and projected annual population growth 2001-2041 .................. 60 Figure 4-2 Historic and projected household growth 2001-2041 .............................. 61 Figure 4-3 Percentage of economically active population 2011 ............................... 69 Figure 5-1 Origin of those working in Richmond ...................................................... 75 Figure 5-2 Origin of those working in Royal Docks Newham ................................... 76 Figure 5-3 Change in accessibility to jobs 2011-2031 without the Scheme .............. 77 Figure 5-4 Working age population within 45 minutes highway time, 2011 .............. 78 Figure 5-5 Working age population within 45 minutes highway time, 2031 .............. 78 Figure 5-6 Relocation of Olympic businesses .........................................................