Society – the decisive player in Ukrainian politics? Grzegorz Gromadzki, Expert cooperating with the Institute of Public Affairs, Warsaw Łukasz Wenerski, Analyst in the European Programme, Institute of Public Affairs, Warsaw Society Society This study is first in a series of pol- The current political development icy briefs on Europe and its neigh- in Ukraine shows that in 2014 this bours in the east and south. In this country is facing the most difficult – series we will publish papers com- period in its history of being an in- the decisive player in Ukrainian politics? Ukrainian in player decisive the missioned or produced by the Ber- dependent state, which began in telsmann Stiftung in the framework 1991. The authorities, which carry of its work in this field. This policy out anti-democratic actions, are de- brief is the product of the Bertels- termined to stay in power using all mann Stiftung’s cooperation with means possible to achieve their the Warsaw-based Institute of Pub- goal. Thus, the next few months will lic Affairs. The text was completed be a battle between the ruling elite on 17 of February 2014. and the political opposition. The main question is: what will the role Society – the decisive player in of society be, in particular its active Ukrainian politics? part, in this difficult and decisive pe- riod for the future of Ukraine? A The scale of the protests that short analysis of Ukrainian society started in November 2013 was a over the last 25 years and some re- surprise even for the most experi- flections on the current political sit- enced observers of Ukraine’s polit- uation are needed to answer this ical and social life. One might think question. that the disillusionment after the Brief Policy Orange Revolution provoked grow- ing apathy in society, which wasn’t The phenomena of Ukrainian able to be as active as it was at the society end of 2004 and the beginning of 2005. Why did such an immense Ukrainian society is rather atypical eruption of protest explode in au- in comparison with the societies of tumn 2013? An answer should be many other post-Soviet countries. looked for in the current political sit- The political activity of Ukrainian uation as well as in deeper social society as a whole shouldn’t be and political processes that have overestimated, but in contrast to taken place in Ukraine over the last Russia and Belarus there is a sta- 25 years. It seems to be more and ble critical mass in Ukraine inter- more visible that society is becom- ested in and capable of significantly ing the decisive player in Ukrainian influencing the political situation, politics. One could say that this sometimes even decisively. This should be an obvious situation. It is doesn’t mean that there are no ac- evident in democratic countries, tive and politically motivated however, but not in many post-so- groups in Russian or Belarusian viet countries – Russia and Bela- society, although in the latter they rus, for instance. are very feeble and in the former they are growing but are still too 2 Society Society weak and fragmented to decisively of the people supporters of democ- influence the political situation. One racy, while most of the people from of the reasons for this difference is other parts of Ukraine support a – that the level of fear and apathy is democratic model for their country. the decisive player in Ukrainian politics? Ukrainian in player decisive the much lower in Ukrainian society One can risk posing a thesis that than in Belarusian and Russian so- there is growing contradiction be- cieties. tween the expectations of society and the reality of the political sys- The foundations of Ukrainian soci- tem in Ukraine, which is becoming ety over the last two decades of an more and more autocratic. independent Ukraine is an ex- tremely interesting phenomenon. But it should be borne in mind that Society could not be founded on a President Yanukovych and the linguistic, religious, or ethnic basis Party of Regions are still supported as is too heterogeneous. It seems by a significant part of society in that the Ukrainians (the active part Eastern and Southern parts of of society) have become more and Ukraine. According to an opinion more of a political nation based on survey conducted by the Kyiv Inter- opposition to the authoritarianism national Institute of Sociology in of the rulers, supporting more or November 2013, more than a quar- less European values and democ- ter (27%) of people in Eastern racy. The support for democracy in Ukraine and 21 per cent in South- Brief Policy Ukraine is not very high but much ern Ukraine claim that they will vote higher than the support for the au- for the Party of Region in the next thoritarian system. According to a elections to the Ukrainian parlia- public opinion survey conducted in ment. On the other hand, this party December 2013, 51 per cent of only has four per cent support in Ukrainians support democracy as Western Ukraine and 12 per cent in the best political system for their Central Ukraine.2 This is a sign of country while 21 per cent think that the old division between pro-Euro- autocracy is the best solution. The pean Western and Central Ukraine regional differences for the support and pro-Russian Eastern and of democracy are interesting: Southern Ukraine. However, it Western Ukraine – 77 per cent, should be noted that there are al- Southern Ukraine – 56 per cent, ready visible groups of pro-Euro- Central Ukraine – 52, Eastern pean orientation in Eastern and Ukraine – 36.1 Only in the Eastern Southern parts of Ukraine. There- part of Ukraine – the homeland of fore, one can say that this division Viktor Yanukovych and his Party of of Ukraine between West and cen- Regions – are less than 50 per cent tre on the one hand and East and 1 http://dif.org.ua/en/polls/2014_polls/ 2 http://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat dva-misjaci-protestiv-v-ukraini-sho-dali_-- =reports&id=208&page=1 -zagalnonacionalne-opituvannja.htm 3 Society Society South on the other, is a stable phe- A long tradition of protests’ nomenon but with slowly changing movements proportions in favour of pro-Euro- – pean orientation. Research con- Maidan 2013-2014 can be in- the decisive player in Ukrainian politics? Ukrainian in player decisive the ducted by the Institute of Public Af- scribed on the list of politically mo- fairs in the middle of 2013 shows tivated protests that have taken that in three out of four regions place in Ukraine in the last 25 (Western, Central, and Southern) years. However, it should be support for EU integration is higher strongly underlined that it is not than for the Customs Union with only the well-known Orange Revo- Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. lution in 2004-2005 that has taken Only in Eastern Ukraine is the per- place before today’s Maidan. The centage of people willing to inte- list of politically motivated protests grate their country with the Cus- in Ukraine is much longer. toms Union higher than those who support EU integration of Ukraine. At the turn of the 21st century, Nevertheless, the scale of support Ukraine was shaken by massive makes a difference. The support in protests named the Ukraine With- favour of the EU is higher in West- out Kuchma movement. In 1999 ern and Central Ukraine than the Leonid Kuchma, the president of support in favour of the Customs Ukraine at the time, had won his Union in the East of Ukraine.3 second presidential election and Brief Policy was preparing to rule the country It is worth risking the thesis that for the next five years. Harsh eco- pro-European people are rather ac- nomic conditions radicalised the tive and future oriented, while the citizens’ attitude towards the au- pro-Russian (interested in integra- thorities, although this did not esca- tion with Russia, Belarus, and Ka- late into massive demonstrations. zakhstan) part of society is rather The turning point was provoked by passive and past-oriented. One the events of late 2000. In Septem- cannot imagine several hundred ber 2000, Georgiy Gongadze, co- thousands of protesters who would founder and editor of an online spontaneously gather to support in- Ukrainian newspaper Ukrainska tegration with Russia. But this is the Pravda, widely known as a tracer of reality in the case of the pro-Euro- corruption among the most promi- pean and pro-democratic manifes- nent oligarchs and politicians, also tations. from the presidential circle, disap- peared in Kyiv. His beheaded body was found the following November, 3 For complex results please read: J. Fom- der, available at: http://isp.org.pl/up- ina, J. Kucharczyk, J. Konieczna- loads/fi- Sałamatin, Ł. Wenerski, Poland – Ukraine, lemanager/pdf/Spojrzenieprzezgrani- Poles – Ukrainians. A look across the bor- cENGsummary.pdf 4 Society Society and President Kuchma was ac- a massive protest and hunger cused of ordering Gongadze’s kid- strike by students and pupils, or- nap. In turn, this caused citizens to ganised in October 1990. The pro- – become extremely angry at the testers only spent 16 days on the the decisive player in Ukrainian politics? Ukrainian in player decisive the supposed ruthlessness and brutal- October Revolution Square (now ity of the authorities, provoking Maidan of Independence) in Kyiv, people to take to the streets and where they installed a tent city, but start protesting. The first protests this had a crucial influence on fu- started in December 2000, with de- ture internal changes in Soviet monstrators demanding the resig- Ukraine.