EXPLAINING THE PATTERN OF THE DPRK‟S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD MAJOR STATES: AN ANALYSIS OF DOMESTIC POLICY PRIORITIES OF NORTH KOREA ON FOREIGN POLICY by SUKHOON HONG (Under the Direction of Han S. Park) ABSTRACT This dissertation starts with the question of what factors influence whether North Korea chooses to implement risky or cooperative policies toward major states, as well as what role domestic politics and ideology play in the DPRK‟s formation and enactment of foreign policy. This study also seeks to explain why North Korea chooses a hard line foreign policy and when it chooses to engage with surrounding states. To find answers to these questions, the domestic priorities behind foreign policies are analyzed within the framework of human needs development theory. In this theory, North Korean foreign policy goals are motivated by three domestic priorities or preferences: security, identity and prosperity. This study set up three hypotheses based on this theoretical framework. The hypotheses assumed that the DPRK‟s foreign policy is determined primarily by the demands of “national security” relative to the U.S.; North Korea‟s foreign policy toward South Korea is determined by the “identity need”; Pyongyang‟s foreign policy toward China is mostly based on a desire for “economic prosperity.” In order to test these hypotheses, this study employs the “process-tracing” method, and also observes the official newspaper of Pyongyang regime, through content analysis in order to determine the DPRK‟s perception and policy preference toward major states such as the United States, South Korea and China. From the theoretical standpoint, this study proposes that North Korea is not abnormal or atypical, that is, the foreign policy goals of North Korea are not drastically different from any other country. First of all, one must understand that the essential ideologies of Juche and Songun and historical experiences have formed the preferences of Pyongyang‟s leadership. It is clear that the DPRK‟s domestic priorities have great influence on its foreign policy toward major governments, more so than external pressures and direct diplomatic interactions. This study implies that, within it‟s the context of its own history and perceptions, Pyongyang has acted rationally in regard to its goals and strategic interest. INDEX WORDS: North Korean Foreign Policy, Human Needs, Security, Identity, Prosperity, U.S.-DPRK Relations, Inter-Korea Relations, Sino-DPRK Relations. EXPLAINING THE PATTERN OF THE DPRK‟S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD MAJOR STATES: AN ANALYSIS OF DOMESTIC POLICY PRIORITIES OF NORTH KOREA ON FOREIGN POLICY by SUKHOON HONG B.A., Sungkyunkwan University, Korea, 1995 M.A., Korea University, Korea, 2000 A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of The University of Georgia in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY ATHENS, GEORGIA 2013 © 2013 SUKHOON HONG All Rights Reserved EXPLAINING THE PATTERN OF THE DPRK‟S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD MAJOR STATES: AN ANALYSIS OF DOMESTIC POLICY PRIORITIES OF NORTH KOREA ON FOREIGN POLICY by SUKHOON HONG Major Professor: Han S. Park Committee: Loch K. Johnson Jeffrey D. Berejikian Brock F. Tessman Electronic Version Approved: Maureen Grasso Dean of the Graduate School The University of Georgia December 2013 DEDICATION To my parents, Taepyo Hong and Soonan Shin iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and foremost, I would like express my sincere thanks to my major professor, Dr. Han S. Park for his tremendous support and affection, and to the rest of my committee, Dr. Lock K. Johnson, Dr. Jeffrey D. Berejikian, and Dr. Brock Tessman, without whose support this dissertation would not have been possible. Also, I would like to give my special thanks to my wife, Hyeda Yi, for her unending patience and understanding. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................ v LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... ix CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 1 1. The Puzzle .............................................................................................. 1 2. Research Questions ................................................................................ 4 2 IR THEORIES AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK .......................................... 5 1. Theoretical Framework: Selected Features of Leading Theories ......... 5 2. Human Needs Theory ......................................................................... 11 3 RESEARCH DESIGN ............................................................................................. 17 1. Hypotheses ....................................................................................... 17 2. Methodology .................................................................................... 22 3. Expected Findings and Contributions .............................................. 28 4. Organization of the Dissertation ......................................................... 29 4 DOMESTIC POLICY PRIORITIES OF NORTH KOREA: POLICY GOALS AND STRATEGIC CHOICES ................................................................................. 30 1. The DPRK‟s Decision Making Process ............................................ 30 2. Nominal Goals in Foreign Policy ..................................................... 32 vi Page 3. Salient Manifest Goals and Strategies in the DPRK‟s Foreign Policy ................................................................................... 33 5 NORTH KOREAN POLICY TOWARD THE UNITED STATES ........................... 49 1. Historical and Cultural Contexts of US-DPRK Relations ................ 49 2. The United States‟ Policy toward North Korea ................................ 56 3. North Korea‟s Survival Policy toward the United States .................. 61 4. North Korea‟s Policy Priorities toward the United States ................ 76 6 NORTH KOREAN POLICY TOWARD SOUTH KOREA .................................... 85 1. History and Culture of Inter-Korea Relations ................................... 85 2. South Korea‟s Policy toward North Korea ....................................... 89 3. North Korea‟s Security and Economic Policy toward the ROK ....... 93 4. The DPRK‟s Legitimacy Competition with the ROK .................... 108 7 NORTH KOREAN POLICY TOWARD CHINA ................................................ 122 1. Historical and Cultural Contexts of Sino-DPRK Relations ............ 122 2. China‟s Foreign policy toward Korea ............................................. 126 3. Security and Political relations with Sino-DPRK ........................... 131 4. DPRK‟s Economic Relations with China ...................................... 139 5. North Korea‟s Policy Priority toward China .................................. 142 8 CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................... 151 1. Summary of Key Findings .............................................................. 151 2. Suggestions for Future Study .......................................................... 156 REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................... 157 vii LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1: Military expenditure by country, 1988-2011 ............................................................. 62 Table 2: Food Situation in the DPRK ..................................................................................... 67 Table 3: The DPRK‟s Policy behavior toward the US ............................................................ 78 Table 4: Trade with the DPRK by Country, 2005-2011 ........................................................... 80 Table 5: The Selected Word's Frequency for the DPRK' Policy Preference to the US, 2005-2009 .............................................................................................................................. 82 Table 6: DPRK & ROK Military Budget ................................................................................. 95 Table 7: Two Koreas‟ GNI (Gross National Income) and Growth Rate ............................... 102 Table 8: North Korea‟s Trade with South Korea: 1995-2011 ................................................ 104 Table 9: Number of Companies Operating in the KIC and Production Volume, 2005-2012 105 Table 10: South Korea's Assistance to North Korea, 2001-2011 ........................................... 106 Table 11: North Korea‟s Military Provocation ....................................................................... 113 Table 12: The DPRK‟s Policy behavior toward the ROK ..................................................... 115 Table 13: The Selected Word's Frequency for the DPRK' Policy Preference to the ROK, 2007-2009 .............................................................................................................. 118 Table 14: Reported Exports of Small Arms to the DPRK by Country .................................. 136 Table 15: The DPRK‟s Merchandise Trade with China, 1995-2011 ..................................... 146 Table 16: The Selected Word's Frequency for the DPRK' Policy Preference to China, 2005-2009 .............................................................................................................