NATIONAL SCIENCE BOARD 2 VISION 2030 VISION 2030 3 VISION 2030 Cover Photo Credit: May 2020 Getty Images Report #: NSB-2020-15 4 VISION 2030 VISION 2030 5 The U.S. has made the investments The U.S. has needed to fuel an increased STEM innovation economy skills in its workforce, and remain preeminent creating more in science and opportunities for engineering. all Americans. U.S. scientists and engineers are modeling scientific values that are practiced The U.S. throughout remains a the world. magnet for the The U.S. has world’s best created an accessible, talent. attractive S&E enterprise that more closely reflects the nation’s demographic and geographic diversity. U.S. government, VISION industry, and academic partners are working in coordination to realize national R&D priorities and accelerate FOR THE the discovery-to- innovation cycle. NSF continues to drive U.S innovation FUTURE through fundamental research and lead the This report lays out what the National Science Board evolution of the global believes the U.S. must do to achieve this vision and remain practice of science the world innovation leader in 2030. and engineering. 6 VISION 2030 VISION 2030 7 GLOBALIZATION OF S&E than in 2000,4 the share of basic research that is federally funded declined from 58% S&E is now a truly worldwide enterprise, to 42% during that period. Basic research with more players and opportunities, from across all fields of S&E, performed primarily at which humanity’s collective knowledge is colleges and universities and funded by federal growing rapidly. This dynamic research and investments, is an important innovation engine development (R&D) landscape is characterized that fuels subsequent research across the by interdependence as well as competition. S&E ecosystem, by both private industry and While the U.S. S&E enterprise continues to mission-oriented agencies such as NASA and grow in absolute terms, the data show that the Department of Defense. the global S&E enterprise is growing faster and consequently the U.S. share of discovery KEY QUESTION: How can American is dropping (see Figure 1). The U.S., which led discoveries continue to empower U.S. the world in total R&D investment for decades, businesses and entrepreneurs to likely ceded this status to China in 2019. If succeed globally? these trends continue, NSB projects that China will invest over $200 billion a year more in R&D DEMAND FOR STEM TALENT than the U.S. by 2030. A bright spot amongst A CASE these concerning trends is that the U.S. has a Worldwide demand for STEM-capable significant lead in fundamental research – the (Science, Technology, Engineering, and seed corn for America’s entire S&E enterprise.1 Mathematics) workers keeps growing, driven by international opportunities and competition, FOR KEY QUESTION: How can America keep and by rapid increases in the number of jobs its lead in fundamental research? that require STEM skills, including in lines of work that historically did not require S&E URGENCY GROWTH OF KNOWLEDGE- knowledge. This situation will only become AND TECHNOLOGY- more urgent: by 2026, S&E jobs are predicted INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES to grow by 13% compared with 7% growth in United States (U.S.) leadership in science only explorers. Science and engineering the overall U.S. workforce.5 Yet even as STEM and engineering (S&E) has shaped – particularly fundamental research Global R&D investments have tripled since competencies have become more essential, Americans’ way of life for seven decades, conducted transparently and openly – 2000, reflecting increased activity and U.S. K-12 mathematics and science scores are contributing to the nation’s economic benefits the entire world. Yet if the U.S. is competition in knowledge- and technology- well below those of many other nations and 2 prosperity and ensuring its national security. to ensure a strong economy and national intensive industries. In the U.S. such industries have stagnated.6 Women and underrepresented The U.S. S&E ecosystem, built on federally security, it is vital that a significant share account for 17% of Gross Domestic Product minorities remain inadequately represented funded fundamental research, has led to of future scientific breakthroughs and and generate $2.7 trillion in output, outpacing in S&E relative to their proportions in the U.S. 3 innovation and new industries, revolutionized world-changing innovations be made any other sector. Today’s R&D intensive population. The rapid growth of S&E jobs health care, promoted peace, created the here. In this new era, the National Science industries exist, in part, because of discoveries and demographic changes have outpaced mobile digital world, and transformed nearly Board (Board, NSB) sees three trends that arising from basic research that the federal the progress that has been made in the every aspect of Americans’ lives. threaten the nation’s S&E leadership. government funded decades ago, well before participation of these groups in S&E. the research had a known application. Although Today, science continues to be the endless inflation-adjusted federal basic research KEY QUESTION: How can the U.S. frontier, but U.S. researchers are not the expenditures are only slightly lower in 2017 increase STEM skills and opportunities for all Americans? 8 VISION 2030 VISION 2030 9 In this report, the NSB highlights four address the key questions posed above.7 elements of S&E leadership that are The NSB commits to working with all FIGURE 1: AMERICA’S SHARE OF R&D DECREASING essential to the U.S. remaining the world stakeholders in our S&E enterprise – AS GLOBAL S&E GROWS leader in innovation in 2030: Practice including Congress, the Administration, of Science and Engineering, Talent, federal agencies, state and local While the U.S. investment in R&D continues to grow in absolute terms, the investment Partnerships, and Infrastructure. We governments, academia, and the private by other countries is growing faster. As a result, the U.S. share of global R&D spending conclude by offering a Roadmap for sector – to bring about the next era of decreased from 37% to 25% between 2000 and 2017. actions the NSB and the National Science American innovation leadership. Source: NSB, “Research and Development: U.S. Trends and International Comparisons,” Science & Engineering Indicators 2020 Foundation (NSF) will undertake to help United States East-Southeast and South Asia FUNDAMENTAL According to National Security Decision Directive (NSDD)-189, European Union RESEARCH fundamental research includes basic and applied research in science Rest of World and engineering, which the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Frascati Manual defines as follows:8 BASIC Experimental or theoretical work undertaken primarily to acquire RESEARCH new knowledge of the underlying foundations of phenomena and observable facts, without any particular application or use in view. 12% 13% 25% APPLIED Original investigation undertaken in order to acquire new knowledge, RESEARCH directed primarily towards a specific, practical aim or objective. 37%37% EXPERIMENTAL Systematic work, drawing on knowledge gained from research and DEVELOPMENT practical experience and producing additional knowledge, which is 20% directed to producing new products or processes or to improving 25%25% 2000 2017 existing products or processes. 42% 26% 10 VISION 2030 VISION 2030 11 PRIVATE ACADEMIA Businesses Trade Schools Associations Universities Entrepreneurs THE S&E Colleges Foundations K-12 Nonprofits ECOSYSTEM Philanthropies GOVERNMENT State Local Federal National Labs ELEMENTS OF LEADERSHIP 12 VISION 2030 VISION 2030 13 disciplines to explore problems that cross the S&E enterprise will be critical as the U.S. seeks boundaries of multiple fields, have the potential to model open, ethically conducted science and ELEMENT: to influence how disciplines are organized engineering and sustain a global community of PRACTICE OF SCIENCE and how funding agencies invest. The funding like-minded partners. choices that agencies make will be critical In a world where transnational collaboration AND ENGINEERING to motivating funding recipients to move in in S&E is becoming more critical, the U.S. new directions and evaluate and modify their must support researchers’ collaborations respective organizations and strategic priorities. For the U.S. to preserve its lead in that discoveries are translated into innovations. with scientists abroad. These collaborations fundamental research and empower its While the U.S.’s decentralized, bottom-up In the coming decade, the U.S. also must and the progress of knowledge itself depend businesses and enterprises to compete approach to S&E research produces new continue to improve the research environment, on preserving the open flow of knowledge. globally, it must stay on the leading edge knowledge in many disciplines, it can result setting the standard for research ethics and At the same time, it will be crucial that the of the practice of S&E. This entails being in that knowledge being siloed and less values. To do so, the U.S. must embrace U.S. safeguard sensitive areas of research more strategic about investments, making likely to make the leap from the research and champion core values of objectivity, in which national security considerations the S&E ecosystem more nimble, embracing environment to industry. Policies, incentives, honesty, openness, fairness, accountability, must prevail. The nation’s guide in doing new research tools and modalities, and processes that improve collaboration and stewardship. Furthermore, as the U.S. so should be President Ronald Reagan’s fostering an inclusive and ethical S&E across disciplines, between government S&E looks to the future, attention to falsification, policy on technology transfer (NSDD-189), enterprise, welcoming and capitalizing on agencies, and among government, academia, plagiarism, and fabrication per se will not suffice which called for the products of fundamental the globalization of S&E, and retaining the and industry, can facilitate that translation.