How To Build a New Iraq after Saddam Patrick Clawson, Editor THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2002 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Published in 2002 in the United States of America by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050, Washington, DC 20036. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data How to build a new Iraq after Saddam / Patrick Clawson, editor. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-944029-82-5 1. United States—Politics and government—2001- 2. Iraq— Politics and government—1991- 3. Hussein, Saddam, 1937- I. Clawson, Patrick, 1951- II. Washington Institute for Near East Policy. E902.H69 2002 327.730567—dc21 2002015563 Cover photo © AP Wide World Photos. Cover design by Alicia Gansz. Contributors Amatzia Baram is director of the Jewish-Arab Center and the Gustav Heinemann Institute for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Haifa. He is the author of Building toward Crisis: Saddam Husayn's Strategy for Survival (The Washington Institute, 1998). Patrick Clawson is deputy director of The Washington Institute and editor of Iraq Strategy Review: Options for U.S. Policy (The Wash- ington Institute, 1998). He is a frequent writer and commentator on U.S. Iraq policy. Rend Rahim Francke, an Iraqi American, has served as execu- tive director of the Iraq Foundation since 1991. She is a frequent writer on Iraqi politics and is coauthor of The Arab Shi'a: The Forgotten Muslims (St. Martin's Press, 2000). Kamran Karadaghi is deputy director and chief editor of Radio Free Iraq, based in Prague. Formerly a diplomatic and senior political correspondent with al-Hayat, he was a 1993 visiting fel- low at The Washington Institute. Ellen Laipson is president and CEO of the Henry L. Stimson Center in Washington, D.C. She previously worked on Middle East issues for the U.S. government, most recently as vice chair- man of the National Intelligence Council. Michael Rubin is a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. A frequent commentator in electronic and print me- dia, he has traveled widely in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Sudan. Safwat Rashid Sidqi is a lawyer and cofounding member of the Kurdistan Human Rights Organization, based in Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan Region, Iraq. The opinions expressed in this monograph are those of the au- thors and not necessarily those of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors. THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE for Near East Policy An educational foundation supporting scholarly research and informed debate on U.S. interests in the Near East Executive Committee Chairman President Founding President/ Michael Stein Fred S. Lafer Chairman Emerita Barbi Weinberg Vice Presidents Secretary Committee Members James Schreiber Richard S. Abramson Howard Berkowitz SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT Richard Borow Charles Adler Treasurer Maurice Deane, emeritus Benjamin Breslauer Martin J. Gross Gerald Friedman Robert Goldman Leonard Goodman, emeritus Walter P. Stern Roger Hertog Bernard Leventhal Fred Schwartz Board of Advisors Warren Christopher Samuel W. Lewis James Roche* Lawrence S. Eagleburger Edward Luttwak Eugene V. Rostow Alexander Haig Michael Mandelbaum George P. Shultz Max M. Kampelman Robert C. McFarlane Paul Wolfowitz* Jeane Kirkpatrick Martin Peretz Mortimer Zuckerman Richard Perle * resigned upon entry to government service, 2001 Institute Staff Director of Policy and Director/Ziegler Deputy Director Strategic Planning Distinguished Fellow Patrick Clawson Robert B. Satloff Dennis B. Ross Senior Fellows Counselor, Turkish Research Director of Development Michael Eisenstadt Program Laura Milstein Matthew A. Levitt Mark Parris Administrator David Makovsky 2002 Visiting Fellows Nina Bisgyer 2002 SorefFellows Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror Financial Officer Soner Cagaptay (IDF), IRA WEINER FELLOW Laura Hannah Ely Karmon, ROSEN FELLOW Avijorisch Martin Kramer, WEXLER- Director of Publications Jonathan Schanzer Alicia Gansz FROMER FELLOW Ray Takeyh Malik Mufti Executive Assistant Ali Salem Marguerite Dale Associates Ze'ev Schiff 2002 Visiting Military Fellows Development Assistant Ehud Ya'ari Col. Nitsan Alon Marilyn Turner ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCES Events Coordinator Adjunct Scholars Col. Yalcin Ergul Rebecca Saxton Hirsh Goodman TURKISH AIR FORCE Simon Henderson Financial Assistant Joshua Muravchik Lt. Col. Phillip Gibbons Robin Edwards UNITED STATES AIR FORCE Daniel Pipes Lt. Col. Eric Mathewson Publications Associate Michael Rubin UNITED STATES AIR FORCE George Lopez Harvey Sicherman Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Shaul Mofaz Publications Assistant ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCES Veronica Kim Table of Contents Introduction: Shaping a Stable and Friendly Post-Saddam Iraq Patrick Clawson 1 Assessing the Long-Term Challenges Ellen Laipson 9 The Shape of a New Government Rend Rahim Francke 19 Minimizing Ethnic Tensions Kamran Karadaghi 31 Federalism and the Future of Iraq Michael Rubin 44 A Criminal Regime: Accountability in a Post-Saddam Iraq Safwat Rashid Sidqi 56 Viewing Regime Change through a Historical Lens Amatzia Baram 69 Maps Iraq: No-Fly Zones and Kurdish Areas vi Iraq: Provinces and Capitals vii Iraq: Provinces and Capitals TURKEY a U'^ ,^'IRBIL / Mosul* / ,Irbl1 '-> ^ \ MO J (NINi k.. | SALAHUDDIN^NJ' /^") J\ IRA N " 1 Samarra I ^ BAGHDAD I ^aqubah\ Ramadi# ^Baghdad ^> ANBAR ' \ v , ,^L V^ WASIT *^X ^rbala.<^AlHillah • / \._ Ad Di \<' ^P^# waniyah^ j Amarah\ "•—, \ / "7*^' /* ^DHIQAR^. f 1 NA AF \ / J /Samawah? •Nasiriy^h/ "1 XN/" / ^y-BasrsL - X / \ BASRA X fV \ y MUTHANNA \ ^ "tefe^^j 0 200 miles D. Swanson/Equator Graphics, Inc. SAUDI ARABIA ^_ _\ ^ Vll Patrick Clawson Introduction: Shaping a Stable and Friendly Post-Saddam Iraq hether changing the regime in Baghdad is a worthwhile WU.S. policy depends in no small part on defining the shape that Iraq would most likely assume following Saddam Husayn's removal. Among other central objectives, any strat- egy for regime change should include the long-term goal of creating a stable and friendly Iraq. Toward this end, the five essays in this monograph explore the most urgent challenges that a post-Saddam Iraq would likely present. Although this study is not predicated on any one assumption about the possible mechanisms of regime change, the authors do ad- dress many of the special problems that would arise if Saddam were removed by means of a U.S. invasion. They also discuss measures that could be taken to reduce potential future threats from Iraq. Territorial Integrity Despite their many serious concerns about how Iraq will fare after Saddam, the authors seem to agree that preserving Iraq's territorial integrity should not pose a major challenge. This view flies in the face of a frequently heard argument in the West, where many analysts warn of the serious danger that a post-Saddam Iraq could split into three parts along ethnic lines: Kurdish, Shi'i Arab, and Sunni Arab.1 One reason why Iraq is likely to remain intact is that it is entirely dependent on oil income. Control of Iraq's oil in- come means control of Iraq itself; it is a powerful glue holding the country together. This factor would become all the more 2 • Patrick Clawson important if Iraq were able to increase oil production to at least six million barrels per day within the first decade after Saddam's removal; even at the modest price of $15 per bar- rel, this production level would generate nearly $33 billion in annual revenue. None of the three major Iraqi ethnic groups would be willing to forego a share of such revenue by seceding. For example, the most obvious candidates for indepen- dence are the Kurds. Yet, even those who call for an independent Kurdistan insist that any such entity be granted control over the oil fields near the present Kurdish autono- mous region in northern Iraq—-a scenario that the rest of the country would never accept. Moreover, if non-Kurdish Iraqis were too weak and divided to prevent a Kurdish bid for independence, the Kurds would still face the insurmountable opposition of Turkey. The broad consensus among the Turkish public and elite is that an inde- pendent Kurdistan carved from northern Iraq would destabilize Kurdish-majority southeastern Turkey, rekindling the violence in which 30,000 Turks and Kurds died during the 1990s. Even in the unlikely event that Iran and Syria acquiesced to the inde- pendence of Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey would almost certainly use military force to prevent the breakup of Iraq, with strong politi- cal support from the Arab world. Given these factors, Iraq's territorial integrity would prob- ably remain unaffected in the wake of Saddam's removal. In fact, Iraq's heavy dependence on oil suggests that the coun- try would continue its modern tradition of strong central governments, much like other oil-dependent countries world- wide. Unfortunately, oil-rich states are typically run by authoritarians who use oil income to preserve their undemo- cratic rule; modern Iraq is no exception, having seen one strongman after another ignore representative institutions. Moreover, the central role of oil does not necessarily bode well for political stability; immense oil riches are such a tempt- ing prize that various groups may contest for control over the state. Introduction • 3 Maintaining Stability In fact, political instability is a much more substantial threat than the division of Iraq into ethnic ministates. Most worri- some is the prospect of revolving-door governments; after all, Iraq experienced a succession of bloody coups from 1958 until Saddam consolidated power in the late 1970s. After his re- moval, the cycle of coups could resume for a number of reasons (e.g., the strong tribal influences among the army officer corps or the highly competitive relationship between the major tribes).