November 2010 West Midlands and Chilterns Route Utilisation Strategy Draft for Consultation Contents 3 Foreword 4 Executive summary 9 1. Background 11 2. Dimensions 20 3. Current capacity, demand, and delivery 59 4. Planned changes to infrastructure and services 72 5. Planning context and future demand 90 6. Gaps and options 149 7. Emerging strategy and longer-term vision 156 8. Stakeholder consultation 157 Appendix A 172 Appendix B 178 Glossary Foreword Regional economies rely on investment in transport infrastructure to sustain economic growth. With the nation’s finances severely constrained, between Birmingham and London Marylebone, as any future investment in transport infrastructure well as new journey opportunities between Oxford will have to demonstrate that it can deliver real and London. benefits for the economy, people’s quality of life, This RUS predicts that overall passenger demand in and the environment. the region will increase by 32 per cent over the next 10 This draft Route Utilisation Strategy (RUS) sets years. While Network Rail’s Delivery Plan for Control out the priorities for rail investment in the West Period 4 will accommodate much of this demand up Midlands area and the Chiltern route between to 2019, this RUS does identify gaps and recommends Birmingham and London Marylebone for the next measures to address these. 30 years. We believe that the options recommended Where the RUS has identified requirements for can meet the increased demand forecast by this interventions to be made, it seeks to do so by making RUS for both passenger and freight markets and the most efficient use of capacity. It recommends help support and grow the economy of the West train lengthening on several peak services to and Midlands and Chilterns areas. from Birmingham as well as several long distance routes which pass through the West Midlands. Some additional services are also recommended on several regional routes which pass through Birmingham along In the longer term, a new high speed line with further development of the option of re-routeing to the region and beyond could improve long distance services between Reading and Newcastle journey times and free up capacity on a via Coventry. The RUS also highlights the potential to link a number of local/interurban services across number of existing routes. Birmingham, providing improved connectivity and new journey opportunities. The RUS considers how infrastructure improvements in the Worcester area could improve capacity. In The West Midlands sits at the heart of the national addition, it supports work to explore a new station at rail network and more people than ever rely on rail Aldridge near Walsall. to travel to and through the region. Stations such as Birmingham New Street play a key role in providing Delivering sufficient capacity for freight to travel an interchange for services across the UK, while the through the region is crucial in supporting the Chiltern route serves long distance and commuter economy and, while the majority of the network can markets between the West Midlands, Buckinghamshire, accommodate forecast growth over the next decade, and London Marylebone. The region’s rail network also the RUS recommends that further consideration plays an important role in moving freight from south is given to developing the proposal to reopen the coast ports to the rest of the country. Round Oak – Walsall line to relieve freight capacity on the route between Birmingham and Bromsgrove. There has been significant passenger growth in the RUS area over the past decade with passenger In the longer term, a new high speed line to the numbers holding up despite the worsening economic region and beyond could improve journey times and climate. The rail industry has responded well with free up capacity on a number of existing routes. measures to support train lengthening, performance Network Rail and our industry partners believe that improvement, and journey time improvements. this RUS provides a robust strategy for the West Work is already underway on several large projects Midlands and Chilterns rail network in the coming to increase the capacity of the network in the West years and I would like to take this opportunity to Midlands. The rebuilding of Birmingham New Street thank industry colleagues who have worked with us is underway and will deliver a world class station with to develop this RUS. a concourse three-and-a-half times bigger, allowing it There is a 12-week consultation period and we to handle long-term passenger growth. The Cross City welcome your comments and feedback on our analysis line extension to Bromsgrove and an increase in service and the options we have recommended to feed into frequency between Birmingham New Street and the final RUS which will be published in May 2011. Redditch will deliver significant improvements on one of the busiest commuter routes in the region. On the Chiltern route, the Evergreen 3 project will deliver more Paul Plummer capacity and significant journey time improvements Director, Planning and Development 3 Executive summary Introduction The West Midlands and Chilterns rail network covers an extensive geographical area and serves a diverse range of markets including local commuting into the key employment locations, interurban travel between major urban centres, and long distance journeys within the RUS area and beyond its geographical boundaries. Scope and background The West Midlands rail routes are at the centre of the national rail network, with Birmingham central The West Midlands and Chilterns Route Utilisation stations acting as hubs supporting interchange Strategy (RUS) is the penultimate of the first to many destinations across the United Kingdom. generation geographical RUSs developed by the rail Services across the West Midlands are promoted industry. It considers the requirements that will be and developed by West Midlands Integrated placed upon the rail network over a planning horizon Transport Authority (Centro). of 30 years, and makes recommendations based on a detailed analysis of passenger and freight demand. The Chiltern Main Line serves long distance markets between the West Midlands and London The West Midlands and Chilterns RUS interfaces Marylebone and supports local commuter and with other parts of the rail network which have been interurban travel to key destinations on the route. covered in other RUSs, primarily the East Midlands, Great Western, and West Coast Main Line RUSs. A considerable number of freight flows also operate Its geographical scope broadly consists of the across the network and to significant freight West Midlands region and the Chiltern Main terminals within the RUS area. Line which traverse a large number of significant All passenger and freight services that spend all or towns and cities. It includes the route between part of their journey on the routes contained within London Marylebone and Aylesbury Vale Parkway, the RUS area are considered by this strategy. incorporating part of London Underground Limited’s Metropolitan Line. 4 West Midlands and Chilterns Route Utilisation Strategy Draft for Consultation November 2010 Committed schemes Passenger and freight demand The RUS baseline comprises a number of committed There has been considerable growth in passenger schemes which will deliver improvements to the rail journeys in the RUS area over the past decade, current infrastructure and services in the RUS and passenger demand has remained relatively area. These schemes have formed part of the resilient during periods of economic recession. This ‘do-minimum’ scenario in the RUS against which growth is attributed to several factors including detailed appraisal work for further capacity increasing population, road congestion in cities and interventions has been undertaken. urban centres, and structural changes in travel and employment markets. In light of these factors, and Network Rail’s Delivery Plan for Control Period 4 taking into account the investment being made in (CP4) is a significant part of this baseline which the rail network during CP4, it is anticipated that this aims to provide the infrastructure required to deliver growth will continue during the timescale of the safety, reliability and capacity targets set by the RUS. the Government’s High Level Output Specification and funded through the Statement of Funds Analysis indicates that growth in passenger Available. The plan includes measures to support demand up to 2019 within the RUS area is forecast train lengthening, service enhancements and to continue. Passenger journeys to and from performance and journey time improvements. Train Birmingham are predicted to increase by 32 per operators are responsible for the development of cent in the peak by 2019, and demand on services operational plans based on a mixture of rolling stock to London Marylebone is forecast to increase at a cascade and the introduction of new rolling stock to similar rate. strengthen services on busier routes. The aim of the RUS analysis is to assess that there Within the RUS area significant improvements in is sufficient capacity available to meet the forecast capacity and connectivity will be delivered through demand. A comparison has been undertaken the extension of Cross City services to Bromsgrove between the anticipated level of demand in 2019 and the committed capacity proposed to be delivered in CP4 across the RUS area. The results show that there is generally sufficient capacity to Passenger journeys to and from accommodate demand across the RUS area up to Birmingham are predicted to increase 2019, with some localised crowding predicted during by 32 per cent in the peak by 2019. peak hours. There are significant levels of freight traffic in the RUS area. In recent years, rail’s freight market share has consistently grown and accounts for an 11 per cent share of the UK surface freight market. and more frequent services to Redditch, and the The RUS aims to assess that freight demand is major Birmingham Gateway scheme which will accommodated during the planning horizon being rebuild Birmingham New Street station, doubling its considered.