Saskatchewan’s Natural Capital in a Changing Climate: An Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation PARC PARAIRIE DAPTATIONRC ESEARCH OLLABORATIVE Lead Author: Dave Sauchyn Contributing Authors: Elaine Barrow, X. Fang, Norm Henderson, Mark Johnston, John Pomeroy, Jeff Thorpe, Elaine Wheaton, B. Williams Saskatchewan’s Natural Capital in a Changing Climate: An Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation Lead Author: Dave Sauchyn1 Contributing Authors: Elaine Barrow2, X. Fang3, Norm Henderson1, Mark Johnston4, John Pomeroy3, Jeff Thorpe4, Elaine Wheaton4, B. Williams3 1 Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative 2 Climate Research Services, Regina 3 University of Saskatchewan 4 Saskatchewan Research Council This document is available for download from the PARC website (www.parc.ca). PARC acknowledges the funding support of Saskatchewan Environment April 2009 Citation: Sauchyn, Dave; Barrow, Elaine; Fang, X., Henderson, Norm; Johnston, Mark; Pomeroy, John; Thorpe, Jeff; Wheaton, Elaine; and Williams, B. 2009. Saskatchewan’s Natural Capital in a Changing Climate: An Assessment Of Impacts And Adaptation. Report to Saskatchewan Ministry of Environment from the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, 162 pp. CONTENTS Executive Summary........................................................................................................................ 8 Introduction................................................................................................................................... 13 Past Climate and Recent Trends ................................................................................................... 14 Saskatchewan’s Baseline Climate............................................................................................. 14 Recent Climate Trends.............................................................................................................. 18 Past Climate............................................................................................................................... 20 Scenarios of the Future Climate.................................................................................................... 23 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 23 Climate Change Scenarios ........................................................................................................ 24 Climate Scenarios...................................................................................................................... 28 Water Resources ........................................................................................................................... 41 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 41 Review of Saskatchewan Hydrology and Water Resource Characteristics .............................. 42 Overview............................................................................................................................... 42 Prairie hydrological cycle ..................................................................................................... 42 Prairie runoff generation....................................................................................................... 44 Saskatchewan rivers and their flows..................................................................................... 46 Current water resource management in Saskatchewan......................................................... 48 Climate Change for Saskatchewan Water Resources ............................................................... 50 Water Resources under Climate Change for Saskatchewan ..................................................... 52 South Saskatchewan River Basin study and subsequent analysis ........................................ 52 Representative prairie basin analysis.................................................................................... 55 Options for Adaptation of Future Water Resources Management Practises, Policies and Infrastructure ............................................................................................................................. 59 Adaptation for South Saskatchewan River water resources ................................................. 59 Adaptation for Saskatchewan prairie water resources.......................................................... 60 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 62 Ecosystems.................................................................................................................................... 64 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 64 Biodiversity and Productivity.................................................................................................... 64 Vegetation Zone Response........................................................................................................ 66 Changes in the Timing of Biological Events ............................................................................ 72 Wildlife...................................................................................................................................... 72 Adaptation ................................................................................................................................. 73 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 76 Soil Landscapes ............................................................................................................................ 77 Unmanaged Soil Landscapes .................................................................................................... 77 Agricultural Landscapes............................................................................................................ 78 Adaptation to Minimize Climate Impacts on Soil Landscapes................................................. 79 Agriculture .................................................................................................................................... 81 Highlights.................................................................................................................................. 81 Introduction and Background.................................................................................................... 82 1 Current Agro-Climatic Changes and Impacts ........................................................................... 83 Greater thermal resources ..................................................................................................... 85 Ups and downs of water supplies.......................................................................................... 85 Advantages and disadvantages ............................................................................................. 85 Past and Present Adaptation...................................................................................................... 86 Future Agro-Climatic Scenarios................................................................................................ 87 Future Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations..................................................................... 93 Changes in crop growth and production ............................................................................... 93 Pulse crop production, future climates and adaptation: A case study.................................. 99 Adaptation........................................................................................................................... 101 Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Droughts and Floods................................................. 102 Droughts.............................................................................................................................. 103 Changes in Land Suitability and Northward Shifts................................................................. 104 Livestock Production, Management and Future Climates ...................................................... 105 Insects, Diseases, and other Pests............................................................................................ 106 More about Future Adaptation ................................................................................................ 108 Information and awareness ................................................................................................. 110 Irrigation ............................................................................................................................. 111 Research ............................................................................................................................. 111 Policy Implications.................................................................................................................. 111 Conclusion............................................................................................................................... 113 Forestry ....................................................................................................................................... 114 Introduction ............................................................................................................................