North European and North Atlantic Defense: The Challenges Return 10/31/17 Shaping a Way Ahead for Deterrence in Depth This report is based on interviews in the UK, Canada, Norway and Denmark with regard to the evolving North Atlantic and Nordic defense situation. The report highlights the impact of Russian strategy and actions on the region and the challenges to shaping an effective deterrent strategy. North European and North Atlantic Defense: The Challenges Return North European and North Atlantic Defense: The Challenges Return SHAPING A WAY AHEAD FOR DETERRENCE IN DEPTH Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 5 Nordic Perspectives ............................................................................................................................... 7 Defining the Challenges and Shaping a Way Ahead ...................................................................................... 7 The Perspective of the Norwegian Defense Minister ..................................................................................... 10 The Norwegian Deputy Defense Minister on Reshaping Norwegian Defense: Meeting 21st Century Challenges ..................................................................................................................................................... 15 Norway, National Defense and Allied Collaboration: The Next Phase ......................................................... 17 A Norwegian Perspective on Nordic Security and Shaping a Way Ahead .................................................... 19 Information War and Hybrid Threats: Finland Launches a New Center to Focus on the Challenge .............. 22 Exercise Aurora 17: Sweden Focuses on Deterrence ..................................................................................... 26 Proposal for a New Danish Defence Agreement, 2018-2023 ....................................................................... 29 A Core Ally in NATO ............................................................................................................................................................ 29 Enhanced International Involvement .................................................................................................................................. 31 Calibrating the Russian Challenge: Putting the Cold War in the Rear View Mirror ............................. 31 Facing Core Threats in the Nordic Region: Rear Admiral Nils Wang Highlights the Strategic Option of Reverse Engineering the Russian A2/D2 Threat to Denmark ........................................................................ 31 The Russians, the Arctic and the Baltics: Activism in Support of Strategic Re-Positioning ............................ 36 Parsing Russia’s New Military Doctrine: NATO as a Core Threat ................................................................. 40 Russian-Chinese Naval Reach Expands in Joint Baltic Sea Operation .......................................................... 44 The Russians Rethink Their Approach to Warfare: Tactical Nuclear Weapons Outside the Nuclear Ladder of Escalation? ..................................................................................................................................................... 46 Shaping a Way Ahead for Force Modernization and Enhancing Deterrence in Depth ........................ 50 Norway: A Model for NATO’s Northern Tier ................................................................................................. 50 Leveraging the F-35 as Part of Danish Defense Transformation: The Perspective of the New Chief of Staff of the Royal Danish Air Force ............................................................................................................................ 53 Allies and 21st Century Weapon Systems: The Case of the Coming of the F-35 to Europe ........................... 55 Allies and 21st Century Weapons: The Maritime Domain Strike Enterprise ................................................... 59 From Deployments to the Baltic Region to Empowering the Kill Web Deterrence in Depth Approach: The UK Case ............................................................................................................................................................... 64 The Norwegian Navy and Shaping Air-Sea Integration for Norwegian Defense .......................................... 69 Burden Sharing in NATO: Innovations in Shaping a Way Ahead ................................................................. 72 Can Save 150 Persons .......................................................................................................................................................... 74 Ensures Safety ........................................................................................................................................................................ 74 Owned by Three Nations ...................................................................................................................................................... 75 Crafting Baltic Defense: A Key Role for Allied Air and Seapower ................................................................ 75 Second Line of Defense Page 1 North European and North Atlantic Defense: The Challenges Return The Return of Anti-Submarine Warfare: The Canadian Case .............................................................. 81 NATO Allies and North Atlantic Maritime Threats ........................................................................................ 81 Norway ................................................................................................................................................................................... 81 Allied Interoperability .......................................................................................................................................................... 82 Canadian Perspective on Maritime Threats ..................................................................................................................... 83 Canada and North Atlantic Defense: The Coming of the Cyclone ................................................................. 85 Canada and North Atlantic Defense: The Modernization of the CP-140 ....................................................... 90 Canada, the UK and the Seed-corn Program: Keeping UK ASW Skill Sets Alive ........................................... 97 The Return of ASW: Shaping a 21st Century Approach in the North Atlantic ............................................... 100 Conclusion: Shaping a Way Ahead in Nordic Defense ..................................................................... 106 Appendix: Contrasting the 20th Century Approach to the Kill Chain with the 21st Century Approach to the Kill Web Deterrence in Depth Approach ...................................................................................... 112 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 112 The Mobilization/Modernization Dynamic .................................................................................................. 114 From the Initial Jet Age to the Fifth Gen World ............................................................................................ 116 The XXIst Century Man-Machine Revolution: A New Distributed Information Capability and a Potential Spiral Development Design Process ............................................................................................................ 117 The Combat Learning Dynamic .................................................................................................................... 118 Tron Warfare and the Z Axis ....................................................................................................................... 120 The Payload-Utility Dynamic And the Kill Web: Leaving the Legacy Kill Chain in the Rear View Mirror ... 123 Page 2 North European and North Atlantic Defense: The Challenges Return Figure 1 Ms. Ine Eriksen Soreide. Credit: Norwegian MoD .......................................................................................... 12 Figure 2 The Norwegian Deputy Defense Minister Øystein BØ: Credit: Norwegian Ministry of Defense .......... 16 Figure 3 The current collaborative framework in terms of working nordic defense and security ......................... 21 Figure 4 Remarks by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the official inauguration of the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats in Finland .......................................................................... 23 Figure 5 The New European Centre of Excellence for countering hybrid threats .................................................... 24 Figure 6 From a Swedish video about Exercise Aurora 2017 ..................................................................................... 27 Figure 7 From the Proposed Danish Defence Agreement, 2018-2023. .................................................................... 29 Figure 8 From the Proposed Danish Defence Agreement, 2018-2023. .................................................................... 30 Figure 9 The Wasraw Pact Cold War Threat to the Nordics. ..................................................................................... 33 Figure 10 The Russian