BACKGROUNDER No. 3359 | NOVEMBER 1, 2018 After the Election of Andrés Manuel López Obrador: Charting the Road Ahead for U.S.–Mexico Relations Ana Rosa Quintana Abstract Mexico is one of the U.S.’s largest trade partners, behind only China Key Points and Canada. U.S. officials and their Mexican counterparts throughout many levels of government work together on a daily basis. From agri- n The partnership with Mexico is culture to border security to counterterrorism, this cooperation sup- one of the most important for the ports safety in both countries. Yet, Mexico is also the largest source of United States. It is a relationship in which foreign and domestic U.S.-bound narcotics, a dynamic fueled by growing U.S. demand. Since policies are intertwined due to the early days of the Trump Administration, recalibrating the rela- Mexico’s geographic proxim- tionship with Mexico has been a priority for the White House. From ity to America. Mexico is one of updating NAFTA to expanding cooperation on the migrant crisis in the U.S.’s largest trade partners, Central America, the White House has placed a premium on getting behind only China and Canada. the relationship right. The election of López Obrador as the next Mexi- n Violence and rampant insecurity can president presents the Trump Administration and Congress with have plagued Mexico for decades. an opportunity to win big on Mexico policy by broadening cooperation Despite broad cooperation with on regional challenges, review the new U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agree- the U.S., Mexico’s leaders have ment to ensure it strengthens trade in North America, and ramping up been unable to address its internal bilateral efforts on the Central American migrant crisis. security crisis. n There are enduring difficulties ndrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO, was elected in addressing Mexico’s security Apresident of Mexico on July 1 with the highest majority in Mex- challenges, growing U.S. demand ico’s history. His election also marks the first time that a third-par- for narcotics, and flows of ille- gal immigration. ty candidate won the presidency since Mexico first held elections in 1917. Similar to President Donald Trump, López Obrador cam- n Recalibrating the relationship with paigned on changing the political status quo. On December 1, he will Mexico has been a priority for Pres- ident Trump. The election of López assume the presidency, and his party MORENA and its coalition Obrador as next Mexican presi- allies, the Workers Party (PT) and Social Encounter Party (PES), dent presents the Trump Adminis- will have a majority in the Congress of the Union. Their coalition— tration with an opportunity to win Junto Haremos Historia—will control numerous state legislatures big on Mexico policy by broadening cooperation on regional chal- lenges, working with Congress to This paper, in its entirety, can be found at http://report.heritage.org/bg3359 pass the new U.S.–Mexico–Canada The Heritage Foundation 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Agreement, and ramping up bilat- Washington, DC 20002 eral efforts on the Central Ameri- (202) 546-4400 | heritage.org can migrant crisis. Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. BACKGROUNDER | NO. 3359 NOVEMBER 1, 2018 as well. López Obrador will inherit a country facing the vote and 31 of Mexico’s 32 states, the highest significant challenges from historically high levels majority in Mexico’s election history. A coalition of of violence, widespread corruption, and nearly half the New Alliance Party (PNA) and the Green Party of the country’s 127 million citizens living in poverty. of Mexico (PVEM) led by the PRI, Mexico’s incum- The partnership with Mexico is one of the most bent and historically dominant party, suffered major important for the United States. It is a relationship in setbacks in national, state, and local level elections. which foreign and domestic policies are intertwined PRI presidential candidate José Antonio Meade won due to Mexico’s geographic proximity to the United only 16 percent of the votes. Ricardo Anaya, candi- States. Mexico is one of the U.S.’s largest trade part- date for the PAN, earned 22 percent of the vote, even ners, behind only China and Canada. U.S. officials and after forming a coalition with the leftist Democrat- their Mexican counterparts throughout many levels ic Revolutionary Party (PRD).2 After the election, of government work together on a daily basis. From the PVEM and PRD split from PRI and will now be agriculture to border security to counterterrorism, working with the MORENA-led coalition. their cooperation supports safety in both countries. The congressional and gubernatorial results Yet, Mexico is also the largest source of U.S.-bound were equally as poor for the PRI-led and PAN-led narcotics, a dynamic fueled by growing U.S. demand. coalitions. The MORENA-led coalition won 54 per- Since the early days of the Trump Administration, cent of the seats in the Senate and 61.6 percent in the recalibrating the relationship with Mexico has been Chamber of Deputies, Mexico’s lower house, with a priority for the White House. From updating the MORENA winning the majority in both houses. By North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) contrast, the PRI coalition controls only 11.7 per- to expanding cooperation on the migrant crisis in cent of the seats in the Senate and 9.4 percent in the Central America, the White House has placed a pre- lower house. The PAN did not fare well either, with mium on getting the relationship right. The election 23.4 percent in the Senate and 21.6 percent in the of López Obrador presents the Trump Administra- lower house. Traditionally, either the PRI or the tion and Congress with an opportunity to win big on PAN coalition controlled the congress. The MORE- Mexico policy by broadening cooperation on region- NA coalition also won five of the nine gubernatorial al challenges, review the new U.S.–Mexico–Canada races in the election, and the party has a majority in Agreement to ensure it strengthens trade in North 19 of Mexico’s 32 state legislatures.3 America (USMCA), and ramping up bilateral efforts U.S. policymakers should follow the political on the Central American migrant crisis. changes in Mexico closely. MORENA has been around less than four years as a political party and yet man- Shake-up to Mexico’s Political System aged to alter Mexico’s political landscape. The move- Mexico’s traditional two-party system was ment was originally founded in 2012 by López Obra- upended with the 2018 elections. Going into the elec- dor as a nonprofit organization and later registered as tions, polling found that only 9 percent of Mexicans a political party following the 2012 presidential elec- had confidence in the country’s two-party system tion. Prior to creating MORENA, López Obrador was consisting of the center-left Institutional Revolu- a member of the PRI early in his political career and tionary Party (PRI) and center-right National Action later joined the PRD. He was the PRD’s presidential Party (PAN).1 Electoral results in 2018 reinforced candidate in the 2006 and 2012 elections, losing both. those findings with the historic election of a third- MORENA was founded by dissatisfied mem- party candidate. López Obrador won 53 percent of bers of Mexico’s leftist political parties. The party’s 1. “Solo 9% de Los Mexicanos Confía En Partidos Politicos; el Nivel Más Bajo en 22 Años” (Only 9 Percent of Mexicans Have Confidence in Political Parties; the Lowest Level in 22 Years), Animal Político, October 30, 2017, https://www.animalpolitico.com/2017/10/mexicanos-confia- partidos-politicos/ (accessed July 25, 2018). 2. Instituto Nacional Electoral, “Computos Distritales 2018: Presidencia–Nacional” (District Tallies 2018: Presidency–National), 2018, https:// computos2018.ine.mx/#/presidencia/nacional/1/1/1/1 (accessed July 25, 2018). 3. Central Electoral, “Concluye INE la Integración del Congreso de La Unión” (National Electoral Institute Finalizes Integration of the Congress of the Union), August 23, 2018, https://centralelectoral.ine.mx/2018/08/23/concluye-ine-la-integracion-del-congreso-de-la-union/ (accessed August 27, 2018). 2 BACKGROUNDER | NO. 3359 NOVEMBER 1, 2018 TABLE 1 Mexican Presidential Elections After coming in second in two consecutive presidential elections, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) was elected president in 2018 by the widest margin in Mexican history. WINNER % ND PLACE % RD PLACE % Vicente Fox (PAN) Francisco Labastida (PRI) Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas (PRD) Felipe Calderón (PAN) AMLO (PRD) Roberto Madrazo (PRI) Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) AMLO (PRD) Josefi na Vázquez Mota (PAN) AMLO (MORENA) Ricardo Anaya Cortés (PAN) José Antonio Meade (PRI) SOURCE: Instituto Nacional Electoral, https://www.ine.mx/ (accessed September 24, 2018). BG3359 heritage.org political agenda is largely based on an anticorrup- state, and local government positions. Until 1997, tion platform. Members of MORENA believe that the PRI consistently controlled the congress by at Mexico’s dominant parties do not represent the will least a 50 percent majority. of the people but rather the “mobs in power.”4 The While Mexico held elections in the PRI era, they party criticizes neoliberal economic policies and were anything but free and fair.6 Successive PRI favors a stronger government role in the economy. administrations governed Mexico as an authoritari- It supports stronger unions and progressive social an regime that used state resources to maintain con- policies on issues like gay marriage. At times MORE- trol.7 Nobel Prize laureate Mario Vargas Llosa once NA has deviated from its leftist ideology and favored described it as “the perfect dictatorship.”8 The party pragmatic policies.