Southwest Multi-State Rail Planning Study Technical Background Report September 2014 Table of Contents Chapter 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 7 1.1 Overview .................................................................................................................................................... 7 1.2 What is a Multi-State Rail Plan? ................................................................................................................ 7 1.3 Why the Southwest?.................................................................................................................................. 8 1.4 Geographic Scope of Study ........................................................................................................................ 9 1.5 Study Stakeholders .................................................................................................................................. 10 1.6 Guiding Principles for Southwest Multi-State Rail Network Planning ..................................................... 11 Chapter 2. Planning Context ................................................................................................................................. 12 2.1 Overview of the Study Area ..................................................................................................................... 12 2.2 Population and Travel Demand ............................................................................................................... 15 2.3 Economic Activity..................................................................................................................................... 18 Chapter 3. The Multi-State Transportation System .............................................................................................. 21 3.1 Rail Network ............................................................................................................................................ 21 3.2 Air Network .............................................................................................................................................. 34 3.3 Highway Network .................................................................................................................................... 41 3.4 Intercity Bus ............................................................................................................................................. 47 3.5 Local Transit Systems ............................................................................................................................... 48 3.6 Ports ......................................................................................................................................................... 50 Chapter 4. Corridor Profiles .................................................................................................................................. 53 4.1 Corridor Identification Process ................................................................................................................ 53 4.2 Corridors Analyzed ................................................................................................................................... 53 Chapter 5. The Multi-State Preliminary Network Vision ...................................................................................... 76 5.1 Analysis Methods and the Network Planning Tool .................................................................................. 76 5.2 Preliminary Multi-State Network............................................................................................................. 80 5.3 Preliminary Multi-State Network Performance ....................................................................................... 84 Chapter 6. Governance ......................................................................................................................................... 86 6.1 Study Approach to Governance and Institutional Considerations .......................................................... 86 6.2 Areas of Need for Multi-State Coordination ........................................................................................... 87 6.3 Challenges to Multi-State Coordination .................................................................................................. 87 6.4 Alternative Governance Structures Considered ...................................................................................... 88 6.5 Governance Findings and Recommendations ......................................................................................... 92 Chapter 7. Next Steps ........................................................................................................................................... 95 ii | Technical Background Report Appendices Appendix A. List of MSAs in the Extended SW Study Area Appendix B. SW Study Area Population Appendix C. Rail and Highway Projects List Appendix D. Economic Characteristics of Major MSAs in the Study Region Appendix E. Summary of Transit Services in Selected MSAs Appendix F. Corridor Projected Growth Trends and Network Analysis Assumptions Appendix G. CONNECT SW Global Variable Inputs Appendix H. Corridor Performance Appendix I. Multi-State Governance Models Figures Figure 1 Southwest Study Area and Extended Study Area ..................................................................................... 9 Figure 2 Stakeholder involvement milestones ..................................................................................................... 11 Figure 3 Significant land uses in the SW Study Area ............................................................................................ 14 Figure 4 Forecast population growth between 2010 and 2050 in the SW Study Area ........................................ 15 Figure 5 Population distribution in the SW Study Area ........................................................................................ 15 Figure 6 Population density .................................................................................................................................. 16 Figure 7 Current (2010) intercity mode shares between MSAs in the Southwest Network ................................ 17 Figure 8 Total trips between selected MSAs ........................................................................................................ 18 Figure 9 Rail network ............................................................................................................................................ 22 Figure 10 Freight density map .............................................................................................................................. 24 Figure 11 Planned rail improvement projects ...................................................................................................... 29 Figure 12 Annual enplanements ........................................................................................................................... 35 Figure 13 Top 10 air travel markets less than 600 miles ...................................................................................... 36 Figure 14 Top 10 air/rail travel markets less than 600 miles ............................................................................... 36 Figure 15 Percent of flights delayed at 29 major airports .................................................................................... 37 Figure 16 FACT 2 airport capacity needs .............................................................................................................. 39 Figure 17 Highway network .................................................................................................................................. 43 Figure 18 Planned highway capacity projects ...................................................................................................... 46 Figure 19 Amtrak Thruway service in the Southwest ........................................................................................... 47 Figure 20 Transbay Transit Center rendering ....................................................................................................... 49 Figure 21 ARTIC Intermodal Center rendering ..................................................................................................... 50 Figure 22 Top ten ports in the SW Study Area by import/export value ............................................................... 51 Figure 23 San Diego–S.F./Oakland existing mode share and travel times ........................................................... 54 Figure 24 San Diego–S.F./Oakland corridor characteristics ................................................................................. 55 Figure 25 Greater Los Angeles–Las Vegas existing mode share and travel times ................................................ 56 Figure 26 Greater Los Angeles–Las Vegas corridor characteristics ...................................................................... 57 Figure 27 Greater Los Angeles-Phoenix existing modes share and travel times ................................................. 58 Figure 28 Greater Los Angeles-Phoenix corridor characteristics ......................................................................... 59 Figure 29 San Diego–Phoenix existing mode share and