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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. U.S.-China Security Management Assessing the Military-to-Military Relationship KEVIN POLLPETER Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Pollpeter, Kevin. U.S.–China security management : assessing the military-to-military relationship / Kevin Pollpeter. p. cm. “MG-143.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3536-3 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. United States—Military relations—China. 2. China—Military relations— United States. I.Title. UA835.P59 2004 355'.031'09730951—dc22 2004004374 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2004 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2004 by the RAND Corporation 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Controversy has surrounded the United States military-to-military relationship with China ever since rapprochement began in 1971. The current debate on Department of Defense activities with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have focused attention on the value, rationale, and benefits of the relationship. This study documents the history of U.S. security management with China from 1971 to the present and, based on that history, examines the arguments for and against conducting certain types of activities with the PLA. It then recommends a program of suitable military-to-military activities based on prescribed constraints and goals. The research reported here was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air and Space Operations, U.S. Air Force (AF/XO), and the Commander, Pacific Air Forces (PACAF/CC), and conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. The report should be of value to the national security community and interested members of the general public, especially those concerned with U.S. relations in the Asia-Pacific region. Comments are welcome and should be sent to the project leader, James Mulvenon, or the RAND Project AIR FORCE acting director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program, Alan Vick: James C. Mulvenon Alan Vick 1200 South Hayes St. 1200 South Hayes St. Arlington, VA 22202 Arlington, VA 22202 (703) 413-1100 x5225 (703) 413-1100 x5253 [email protected] [email protected] iii iv U.S.-China Security Management RAND Project Air Force RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our web site at http://www.rand.org/paf. The RAND Corporation Quality Assurance Process Peer review is an integral part of all RAND research projects. Prior to publication, this document, as with all documents in the RAND monograph series, was subject to a quality assurance process to ensure that the research meets several standards, including the following: The problem is well formulated; the research approach is well designed and well executed; the data and assumptions are sound; the findings are useful and advance knowledge; the implications and recommendations follow logically from the findings and are explained thoroughly; the documentation is accurate, understandable, cogent, and temperate in tone; the research demonstrates understanding of related previous studies; and the research is relevant, objective, independent, and bal- anced. Peer review is conducted by research professionals who were not members of the project team. RAND routinely reviews and refines its quality assurance process and also conducts periodic external and internal reviews of the quality of this body of work. For additional details regarding the RAND quality assurance process, visit http://www.rand.org/standards/. v Contents Preface....................................................................... iii Tables ....................................................................... ix Summary.................................................................... xi Acknowledgments......................................................... xvii Acronyms .................................................................. xix CHAPTER ONE Introduction .................................................................1 CHAPTER TWO Historical Context...........................................................5 Nixon and Ford Administrations ............................................5 Carter Administration .......................................................7 Reagan Administration .................................................... 11 George H. W. Bush and Clinton Administrations ........................ 14 George W. Bush Administration .......................................... 25 Conclusion ................................................................. 27 CHAPTER THREE Strategic Factors Affecting U.S.-China Security Relations............... 29 Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) ...................................... 30 Taiwan ..................................................................... 34 The Use of Force, Unilateralism, and “Hegemony” ....................... 35 China’s Response .......................................................... 36 vii viii U.S.-China Security Management CHAPTER FOUR The U.S. Debate over U.S.-China Military Relations.................... 43 Have U.S.-China Military Relations Harmed U.S. National Security? ... 43 Have Military Relations with China Benefited the United States? ........ 47 U.S. Influence on the PLA.............................................. 47 Reciprocity and Transparency .......................................... 55 Poor Planning Leads to Poor Performance ............................. 69 Conclusion ................................................................. 72 CHAPTER FIVE Chinese Views of Military Relationships ................................. 75 The Chinese Approach to Military Relations.............................. 80 Implications................................................................ 82 CHAPTER SIX Conclusion and Recommendations ....................................... 87 Military Relations with the PLA: Worth the Trouble? .................... 87 Designing an Effective Military Relationship with China ................. 88 Constraints and Limitations ............................................ 88 Program of “Security Management” .................................... 90 Improving the Process .................................................. 96 Getting the PLA to Cooperate .......................................... 97 Concluding Remarks ...................................................... 99 Bibliography .............................................................. 101 Tables 4.1. Chinese Facilities Visited by U.S. Military Delegations .......... 58 4.2. U.S. Facilities Visited by Chinese