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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for re- search quality and objectivity. C O R P O R A T I O N The U.S. Army in Asia, 2030–2040 Terrence K. Kelly, James Dobbins, David A. Shlapak, David C. Gompert, Eric Heginbotham, Peter Chalk, Lloyd Thrall ARROYO CENTER The U.S. Army in Asia, 2030–2040 Terrence K. Kelly, James Dobbins, David A. Shlapak, David C. Gompert, Eric Heginbotham, Peter Chalk, Lloyd Thrall Prepared for the United States Army Approved for public release; distribution unlimited For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/rr474 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN 978-0-8330-8393-7 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2014 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This research looks at the security challenges in Asia—defined here as the U.S. Pacific Command’s area of responsibility—in 2030–2040. It develops concepts for U.S. and Chinese interests and national policy and then examines U.S. national strategy in light of these policies. Only then does it consider the U.S. Army’s roles and requirements. The research shows that the United States and China have largely over- lapping interests globally, but the potential for conflict persists region- ally. Therefore, U.S. strategy should seek to balance common U.S. and Chinese goals with the U.S. need to support and protect treaty allies and other partners in Asia. Such an approach would result in a U.S. policy that recognizes China’s increased and expanding importance in the world, as well as its legitimate interests, while also keeping China on a path toward international cooperation. This report rejects the per- spective that China should be treated as a 21st-century Soviet Union, recognizes China’s increasingly capable military, and looks for ways to work cooperatively with China. The goal of this research is to promote a military strategy that puts a high value on security cooperation with regional states, the need for flexible capabilities and a posture that sup- ports allies without antagonizing China, and the need to reach out to the People’s Liberation Army to build connections that could lead to improved relations and be used to defuse tensions in times of trouble. The U.S. Army, for its part, needs to focus on security cooperation and the ability to protect U.S. and allied bases, support the joint force, and project forces into the region, if needed. iii iv The U.S. Army in Asia, 2030–2040 This research was sponsored by the U.S. Army Deputy Chief of Staff, G-8, Army Quadrennial Defense Review Office and conducted within the RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the U.S. Army. The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this report is RAN136471. Questions and comments regarding this research are welcome and should be directed to the co–project leader, Terrence Kelly, at [email protected]. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ............................................................. xxv Abbreviations ..................................................................xxvii CHapTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 CHapTER TWO The Evolving Strategic Environment .......................................... 3 Demographics ...................................................................... 3 Climate .............................................................................. 4 Technology .......................................................................... 5 Economics .......................................................................... 5 The Shifting Military Balance .................................................... 7 CHapTER THREE Chinese Interests and Strategy ................................................11 Regime Survival, Social Order, and Economic Growth ......................11 Territorial Integrity ...............................................................13 Global Role ........................................................................14 Debate over Chinese Power and Assertiveness .................................16 Use of Force ........................................................................17 Popular War .....................................................................18 Resource War ....................................................................19 v vi The U.S. Army in Asia, 2030–2040 Sovereignty Issues and “Blowback” .......................................... 20 Regional Interests and Policies.................................................. 22 South China Sea, the Philippines, and Vietnam ........................... 23 Japan and the East China Sea ................................................ 27 Taiwan ...........................................................................29 Korean Peninsula ...............................................................32 India ............................................................................. 34 Wild Card: China’s Internal Development ................................... 36 China’s Evolving Regional Strategy ............................................ 38 Alternative Futures ................................................................41 Systemic Continuity ........................................................... 42 Hegemonic China ............................................................. 42 Systemic Breakdown ........................................................... 43 Conclusions ....................................................................... 44 CHapTER FOUR U.S. Interests and Policies ......................................................47 Potential Uncertainties and Discontinuities ...................................53 Korea .............................................................................53 Conflict over Maritime Claims .............................................. 56 Conflict with India or Russia ..................................................57 Conclusions ........................................................................58 CHapTER FIVE U.S. Military Strategy and Posture ..........................................61 The Challenges of Deterrence ...................................................62 Shaping U.S. Military Strategy ................................................. 66 U.S. Military Strategy Across Alternative Futures ........................... 77 Enhancing Crisis Stability