PATH DEPENDENT AND RISK AVERSE: IS RETAIL PLANNING INHIBITED BY A CULTURE OF FEAR? Thesis submitted in accordance with the requirements of the University of Liverpool for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy by: Mark Davies Department of Geography and Planning School of Environmental Sciences University of Liverpool October 2019 i Word Template by Friedman & Morgan 2014 Morgan & Friedman by Word Template ii Word Template by Friedman & Morgan 2014 Morgan & Friedman by Word Template DECLARATION This dissertation is the result of my own work and includes nothing that is the outcome of work done by, or in collaboration with others, except where specifically indicated in the text. It has not been previously submitted, in part or completely, to any university or institution for any degree, diploma, or other qualification. Signed: ______________________________________________________________ Date: _________________________________________________________________ iii Word Template by Friedman & Morgan 2014 Morgan & Friedman by Word Template iv Word Template by Friedman & Morgan 2014 Morgan & Friedman by Word Template ABSTRACT As new digital technology fundamentally changes the way people shop, retail firms are increasingly seeking to optimise their store portfolios so that they effectively support the provision of an omni-channel retail offer, which is leading to the decline of many traditional retail spaces. This thesis seeks to explore this issue, by considering why, in the face of such profound structural changes in retailing, the prevailing response of planners has been to reemphasise support for „town-centre-first‟, despite the fact that such an approach appears fundamentally misaligned with the issues that are driving decline today. Utilising a mixed methods approach, involving a detailed historical analysis of the evolution of retail planning in England and in-depth interviews with planners, this thesis seeks to understand why it is that town-centre-first continues to pervade as a strategic approach in retail planning. In doing so, it will be shown that retail planning exhibits evidence of having become path dependent, which, it is proposed, is reflective of an increasing tendency towards risk-averse decision-making in planning more widely. In considering why risk-aversion has become a dominant characteristic of decision making in retail planning, this thesis builds upon the small but growing body of literature, which proposes that „fear‟, as an emotional state, has come to have a significant influence over the decision-making behaviour of planners. In doing so, it is argued that a culture of „fear‟ within planning practice is acting to inhibit the development of radical solutions to the decline of high street and town centre environments, ultimately resulting in a continuation of existing strategic policy approaches. v Word Template by Friedman & Morgan 2014 Morgan & Friedman by Word Template vi Word Template by Friedman & Morgan 2014 Morgan & Friedman by Word Template CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 15 1.1 BACKGROUND AND RESEARCH CONTEXT .............................................................. 15 1.2 RESEARCH FRAMEWORK ........................................................................................ 17 1.3 THESIS STRUCTURE ................................................................................................ 17 2 THE DECLINE OF BRITAIN’S HIGH STREETS: RETAIL AND RECESSION IN THE AGE OF DIGITAL CONSUMERISM ........................................................ 20 2.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 20 2.2 THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS EFFECTS ON RETAIL IN BRITAIN ............ 21 2.2.1 The Impact of the Recession on Retail in Britain .................................................................... 22 2.2.2 Digital Consumerism and the Changing Behaviours of Consumers ........................................ 24 2.3 RETAILING IN THE DIGITAL AGE: FROM HIGH STREETS TO ISTREETS .................... 25 2.3.1 The Rise of Omni-Channel Retailing ...................................................................................... 25 2.3.2 From Expansion to Consolidation: Spatial Strategies in the Digital Era ................................. 27 2.4 THE CHALLENGE OF REVITALISING DECLINING TOWN CENTRES ........................... 29 2.4.1 The Portas Review: A New Strategy for Britain‟s High Streets .............................................. 29 2.4.2 The Industry Response to Portas ............................................................................................. 31 2.4.3 The Government Response to Portas ....................................................................................... 33 2.4.4 Establishing a Long-Term Strategic Vision for High Streets .................................................. 35 2.5 SHAPING THE TOWN CENTRES OF TOMORROW ....................................................... 37 2.5.1 The Disconnect between Policy and Problem.......................................................................... 38 2.5.2 Revitalising Town Centres: Is Town-Centre-First Sustainable? .............................................. 40 2.6 THE NEED FOR RESEARCH: WHY IS TOWN-CENTRE-FIRST SO PERVASIVE? ........... 43 3 METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK AND DATA SOURCES ....................... 45 3.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 45 3.2 PROJECT AIMS AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS ........................................................... 46 3.3 DEVELOPING A METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK .................................................. 48 3.3.1 Establishing Historical Context ............................................................................................... 49 3.3.2 Defining the Scope of Primary Research ................................................................................. 50 3.3.3 Primary Data Collection Method 1: In Depth Interviews ........................................................ 51 3.3.4 Primary Data Collection Method 2: Documentary Analysis ................................................... 52 3.4 THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF RETAIL PLANNING ................................................. 52 3.4.1 History Matters: The Growing Influence of Path Dependence ................................................ 53 3.4.2 Historical Institutionalism and Path Dependence .................................................................... 56 3.4.3 Path Dependence and Planning................................................................................................ 58 3.4.4 Conducting a Historical Analysis of Retail Planning .............................................................. 60 3.5 SELECTING A SUITABLE CASE STUDY LOCATION ................................................... 61 vii Word Template by Friedman & Morgan 2014 Morgan & Friedman by Word Template 3.5.1 Selecting a Suitable Research Area .......................................................................................... 62 3.5.2 Establishing Research Area Boundaries ................................................................................... 64 3.6 IDENTIFYING DATA SOURCES AND SELECTING PARTICIPANTS ............................... 65 3.6.1 Documentary Analysis: Identifying and Selecting Suitable Data Sources ............................... 66 3.6.2 In-Depth Interviews: Identifying and Selecting Suitable Participants ...................................... 67 3.6.3 In-Depth Interviews: Structure and Content ............................................................................. 68 3.7 CONDUCTING THE RESEARCH ................................................................................. 69 3.7.1 Contacting Participants and Conducting the Interviews ........................................................... 70 3.7.2 Processing, Sorting and Analysing the Data ............................................................................ 71 3.8 CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................... 72 4 THE ORIGINS AND THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF RETAIL PLANNING ................................................................................................................... 73 4.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................... 73 4.2 THE RETAIL PLANNING SYSTEM IN ENGLAND ........................................................ 74 4.3 THE ORIGINS OF TOWN PLANNING IN BRITAIN ....................................................... 75 4.4 THE THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS OF RETAIL PLANNING ...................................... 77 4.4.1 Human Ecology and Early Socio-Spatial Models of Land Use ............................................... 78 4.4.2 Walter Christaller and Central Place Theory ............................................................................ 81 4.4.3 The Quantitative Revolution and the Rise of Spatial Science .................................................. 83 4.4.4 Structure, Order and Efficiency: The Theoretical Foundations of Retail Planning .................. 87 4.5 CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................... 87 5 RETAIL PLANNING IN THE 1950S AND 1960S: THE GOLDEN AGE OF POST WAR PLANNING ............................................................................................