ABSTRACT Title of Dissertation: TURKEY’S NEW FOREIGN POLICY ORIENTATION, A THREAT TO THE WEST? Elnigar Iltebir, Ph.D., 2015 Directed by: Professor I.M. Destler, Maryland School of Public Policy, University of Maryland College Park Turkey, a staunch US ally during the Cold War, experienced a transformation of its domestic and foreign policy in the last decade. It pursued a more independent foreign policy in the neighboring region, leading the critics to charge Turkey with abandoning the Western alliance and to question its commitment to strategic partnership with the United States and the EU. This dissertation uses a series of case studies on Turkey’s foreign policy in the Middle East and the Eurasia region to answer the question of whether the recent changes in Turkish foreign policy represent a fundamental reorientation of the country away from the Western alliance and to examine the dominant factors driving Turkish foreign policy during this period. The study concludes that Turkey’s foreign policy transformation in the last decade represents a significant change in the direction of autonomy, but not a fundamental reorientation of the country away from the West. The study also finds that while international factors played an important role in preparing the ground for Turkey’s foreign policy change, domestic factors, particularly Turkey’s economic interests, its new foreign policy elite and their vision, and Turkish public opinion, have been the main drivers of its foreign policy change. TURKEY’S NEW FOREIGN POLICY ORIENTATION A Threat to the West? by Elnigar Iltebir Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Maryland, College Park, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2015 Advisory Committee: Professor I. M. Destler, Chair Professor Christopher Foreman Professor Virginia Haufler, Dean’s Representative Professor William Nolte Professor Michael Sodaro, GWU © Copyright Elnigar Iltebir 2015 Dedication To my parents, Ablikim and Dilber, who made all the sacrifices for my success in life, To my life partner, Ferhat, whose love and support helped me overcome any challenges, To my angels, Kurshat and Seray, who have been the joys of my life during this solo process and beyond… ii Acknowledgements This has been a long but rewarding journey and I finally have the opportunity to thank many people who made it all possible. My greatest gratitude goes to my dissertation chair Dr. I.M. Destler for being the best advisor anyone would like to have. He respected my views, gave me room to explore ideas on my own, and most importantly kept me on track. I am very fortunate and honored to be his student and I am indebted to him for my greatest academic achievement. I cannot thank my committee members enough for their valuable contribution. I am happy to have this chance to express my deepest thanks to my undergraduate professor from the George Washington University, Dr. Michael Sodaro, who did not leave me alone in this journey. His invaluable advice has guided me throughout my graduate years and professional career and I am grateful for his support of my dissertation with his critical contribution to my analytical framework. I am also thankful to my committee members Dr. Virginia Haufler and Dr. Charles Foreman, whose insightful feedback greatly improved this dissertation and to Dr. William Nolte, whose profound expertise significantly contributed to the analytic line. I would also like to acknowledge my professors who guided me throughout my graduate years by supporting my application for the Ph.D. program and by advising me during my doctoral studies. I am thankful to Dr. Tony Saich, Dr. Ashton Carter, and Dr. Joseph Nye for their valuable advice and recommendations while I was studying Public Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School and to Dr. Philip Joyce and Dr. Peter Reuter for their support in earning my doctoral degree in International Security and Political Economy at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. Finally, completing this dissertation while working full-time and raising two kids would not have been possible without the patience and unwavering support of my family. My mother Dilber, who is the most hardworking person I know, sacrificed so much to support my academic achievements in life and I could not have done it without her. My father Ablikim, who is a teacher, writer, and a mentor, has introduced me to international politics since my childhood and always encouraged me to strive for better. My husband, Ferhat picked up that mantle after we decided to join our life together and he has been my source of knowledge, inspiration, and most importantly love and friendship ever since. My 7-year old son, Kurshat, and 1-year-old daughter Seray will be happy to know that their mom can now spend the full weekends with them. Their unending energy and laughter kept me up when I felt down during the lonely process of writing a dissertation and I was motivated every single day to finalize my studies because of the yearning in their eyes just to be with their mommy. My kids were able to have some fun while their mom was in the library thanks to my loving sister and best friend, Elfidar, who has always been there for me to take care of everything I needed. Without the support of my professors and family and encouragement of relatives, close friends, and professional colleagues, this journey would have been impossible for me to complete. Thank you! iii Table of Contents CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2: HISTORY OF TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY (1923-2000) ................... 18 2.1. The EArly RepublicAn Years Between TwO WOrld WArs (1923-1945) ................. 18 2.2. Coups And Turmoil in Turkish Politics And the Cold WAr (1945-1980) .............. 22 2.3. Return to DemocrAcy And Reforms in Turkey And the End of the Cold WAr (1980-2000) ..................................................................................................................................... 32 2.4. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 39 CHAPTER 3: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ................................................................... 42 3.1. LiterAture On FOreign POlicy ChAnge ............................................................................... 42 3.2. LiterAture on Levels of AnAlyses To ExplAin Foreign Policy ChAnge ..................... 49 3.2.1. International or Systemic Approach ........................................................................................ 49 3.2.2. Domestic Dynamics Approach ................................................................................................... 54 3.3. DissertAtion’s AnAlyticAl FrAmework .............................................................................. 67 3.4. ReseArch Methodology ......................................................................................................... 69 3.5. DAtA ............................................................................................................................................. 71 CHAPTER 4: TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY IN THE MIDDLE EAST ............................ 73 4.1. THE CASE STUDY FRAMEWORK ......................................................................................... 74 4.2. OVERVIEW OF FOREIGN POLICY CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST ........................... 78 4.3 TESTING HYPOTHESES .......................................................................................................... 82 1. IRAN ............................................................................................................................................................... 82 2. IRAQ ............................................................................................................................................................ 105 3. SYRIA .......................................................................................................................................................... 125 4. ISRAEL ........................................................................................................................................................ 141 4.4. CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................................... 160 CHAPTER 5: TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY IN EURASIA ............................................. 166 5.1. THE CASE STUDY FRAMEWORK ...................................................................................... 167 5.2. OVERVIEW OF FOREIGN POLICY CHANGE IN EURASIA ........................................... 170 5.3 TESTING HYPOTHESES ....................................................................................................... 177 1. RUSSIA ........................................................................................................................................................ 177 2. CENTRAL ASIA ........................................................................................................................................ 206 3. THE CAUCASUS ...................................................................................................................................... 222 5.4. CONCLUSION .........................................................................................................................