Additional Information Submitted on Behalf of: ANGUS ESTATES & THE MUIR GROUP – LAND AT CARLOGIE, CARNOUSTIE . PRESENTATION TO CARNOUSTIE COMMUNITY COUNCIL (24 FEBRUARY 2014) . HOUSING LAND SUPPLY IN SOUTH ANGUS HOUSING MARKET AREA 2014 . LETTER FROM THE LOCHHEAD CONSULTANCY (4 SEPTEMBER 2014) . CARNOUSTIE SITES – COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT . CARLOGIE ROAD – INDICATIVE FRAMEWORK Presentation to Carnoustie Community Council 24 February 2014 Angus Estates Introduction • Purpose of Presentation • Current Position • Indicative Masterplan • Compliance with MIR • Why we Believe Carlogie Road is best Option • Questions & Discussion Angus Estates Local Development Plan • Community Council Statutory Consultee • Two Main sites Identified • Upper Victoria • Carlogie Road • Reaching Final Stages Angus Estates Carlogie Road Current Position • Joint Venture Angus Estates & Muir Group • Master Plan Led • Integrated with Town • Delivers MIR & LDP Ambitions Angus Estates Current Local Plan Angus Estates Indicative Masterplan Angus Estates Indicative Masterplan- Local Plan Angus Estates Proximity to Town Centre Angus Estates Landscape Framework Angus Estates Indicative Framework Plan Angus Estates Why Carlogie Road Should be Preferred Option • Significant area with land owners committed to coordinated masterplan,JV & Investment • Closest to Town Centre • Fully Linked to existing Community • Employment Land already allocated • No archaeological or flooding constraints to site • Complementary Upgraded Sports Facilities delivered • Primary school & Educational sites • Land for temporary parking when Open is on • No topographical problems to prevent linkage to existing community • Minimal visual intrusion Angus Estates Compliance With MIR • Master plan Led • Road Improvements Delivered • Employment land Delivered • Retail Ambition Delivered – retention of expenditure – Closest to High Street • Natural Extension of Town • Provide Affordable Housing Angus Estates Questions & Discussion Angus Estates Employment Land • Application Submitted • Support of Muir Group • Lack of Supply Constraint to Towns Economy • Known Demand • Positive Discussions with Council Housing Land Supply in South Angus Housing Market Area 2014 Strategic Context TAYplan provides the strategic planning guidance for Angus. Policy 5: Housing states that Local Development Plans should: “Allocate land which is effective or capable of becoming effective to meet the housing land requirement up to year 10 from the predicted date of adoption, ensuring a minimum of 5 years effective land supply at all times, and work towards the provision of a 7 years supply of effective housing land by 2015, to support economic growth. Land should be allocated within each Housing Market Area (Proposal 2) through Local Development Plans to provide an effective and generous supply of land to assist in the delivery of in the order of 26,000 units up to year 2024 across TAYplan. Average annual build rates are illustrated. In the period 2024 to 2032 in the order of 17,400 units may be required. To assist the delivery of these build rates, Local Development Plans shall allocate sufficient land to ensure a generous supply of effective housing sites and to provide for flexibility and choice.” For the South Angus Housing Market Area the plan seeks to provide a framework to allow a minimum of 80 houses per annum to be constructed. The plan states that “average build ratese ar illustrated annually to assist the understanding of what the scale of housing is for communities. These are only averages and the period in which these build rates should be achieved is over the first 12 years of the Plan (from 2012), not annually. It is anticipated that within the first 12 year period build rates will be lower than the average in the early period and greater in the later period.” The emerging Angus LDP has two key requirements to fulfil – 1) provide a framework that allows a minimum of 90 houses to be constructed per annum; and 2) ensure a minimum of 5 years supply is available at all times. Angus Housing Land Audit Based on the published Housing Land Audit 2014 prepared by Angus Council the chart below compares the requirements of TAYplan which, directs Angus Council to provide a framework that allows for 80 houses per annum to be completed within the Housing Market Area, and the Councils own forecast of likely completions from the existing supply of housing land. Graph 1 South Angus HMA Actual and Projected Completions 90 80 70 60 50 TAYplan 40 Angus Council Land Audit Completions 30 20 10 0 The first two years (2012/13 and 2013/14) are factual completions. From 2014/15 to 2020/21 the Audit estimates an annual output from the existing supply of housing land. Beyond this period (up to 20025/26) an assumption is made of the likely output of the remaining housing land based on similar assumptions made within the Audit. The LDP is to have a timescale of 10 years from adoption; hence the projection is up to 2026. It is clear that there is a serious lack of effective housing land to allow TAYplan completions to be achieved and provide a minimum of 5 years effective land to be available at all times. The projected completions are shown in table 1. Table 1 South Angus HMA Audit 2014 Projected Completions 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 14 18 48 33 79 55 28 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 By examining the supply each year as we progress through the plan period it is possible to determine what supply is available and to reveal if a 5 year supply of land is provided. As the first two years are factual, the base year of the Audit is used i.e. 2014/15. This is shown in table 2. Table 2 South Angus HMA Supply and Years Supply 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 Supply 383 335 302 223 168 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Years Supply 4.8 4.2 3.8 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1 This can usefully be shown in the form of a graph which compares the 5 year supply target of 400 units (5 X 80) and the actual diminishing supply over the plan period. Graph 2 South Angus HMA Supply and the 5 Year Supply 450 400 5 Years Supply, 350 300 250 200 150 Completions Supply 100 50 0 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 Future Housing Allocations It is possible, indeed necessary, to translate the lack of a 5 year supply and therefore a lack of a planning framework to allow 80 houses to be constructed every year into a minimum housing number that should be allocated in the emerging LDP. The starting point is in fact the end of the plan period – 2025/26. In order to meet the requirements of TAYplan there must be a minimum 5 year supply of land at this time (land for 400 houses). The plan must allow for a minimum of 80 houses to be completed in each of the 10 preceding years as shown in Table 3. Table 3 South Angus HMA ‐ Meeting the Requirements of TAYplan 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 1120 1040 960 880 800 720 640 560 480 400 ‐80 ‐80 ‐80 ‐80 0 ‐80 ‐80 ‐80 ‐80 Table 3 reveals that to ensure a minimum 5 year supply of housing land is available at all times throughout the plan period (2016/17 to 2025/26) the LDP must allocate sufficient land to accommodate the construction of 1120 houses. However, according to the Councils Housing Land Audit 2014 there will already be an existing supply of land at the base date of 2016/17. This is estimated to amount to 302 units, leaving the LDP to allocate a minimum of 818 houses within the Housing Market Area. This is an absolute minimum for two reasons. Firstly, TAYplan is clear that the Council should aim (as from 2015) to allocate a 7 years supply to support economic growth. This alone would require an additional allocation of some 160 houses if this ambition of supply were to be achieved. Secondly, the actual and projected completions between 2012/13 and 2015/16 will fall short of the average completions sought by TAYplan by some 207 units thereby requiring an accelerated build rate in the period covered by the Angus LDP. Taking these figures together requires a further 367 units to be added to the supply making a total new allocation of 1,185 to be identified by the LDP if it is to conform to the strategic guidance provided by TAYplan. The above assessment is based on the existing effective supply coming forward for development. There is also a further supply of land identified within the existing adopted Local Plan or with the benefit of planning consent covering 4 sites and amounting to a potential supply of some 267 housing units. It is of note that the largest non‐effective site is Strathmartine Hospital which has an allocation of 40 units in the adopted Local Plan but is considered to have a notional capacity of 200 units within the 2009 Urban Capacity Study and therefore reflected in the latest Audit. The 2014 Audit considers these sites to be non‐ effective and unlikely to make a contribution to supply during the audit period. Even, if all these sites were to come forward for development during the plan period and assuming the hospital site could yield 200 units, and this is considered unlikely, the LDP would still need to find additional land to accommodate 918 houses.