Schadt, S., Revilla, E., Wiegand, T., Knauer, F., Kaczensky, P., Breitenmoser, U., Bufka, L., Cerveny, J., Koubek, P., Huber, T., Stanisa, C., and Trepl, L. (2002). Assessing the suitability of central European landscape for the reintroduction of Eurasian lynx. J. appl. Ecol. 39: 189-203. Keywords: 8DE/connectivity/geographic information system/habitat fragmentation/habitat model/landscape/large-scale/logistic regression/Lynx lynx/Malme/reintroduction/spatial model Abstract: 1. After an absence of almost 100 years, the Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx is slowly recovering in Germany along the German-Czech border. Additionally, many reintroduction schemes have been discussed, albeit controversially, for various locations. We present a habitat suitability model for lynx in Germany as a basis for further management and conservation efforts aimed at recolonization and population development. 2. We developed a statistical habitat model using logistic regression to quantify the factors that describe lynx home ranges in a fragmented landscape. As no data were available for lynx distribution in Germany, we used data from the Swiss Jura Mountains for model development and validated the habitat model with telemetry data from the Czech Republic and Slovenia. We derived several variables describing land use and fragmentation, also introducing variables that described the connectivity of forested and non-forested semi-natural areas on a larger scale than the map resolution. 3. We obtained a model with only one significant variable that described the connectivity of forested and non-forested semi-natural areas on a scale of about 80 km2. This result is biologically meaningful, reflecting the absence of intensive human land use on the scale of an average female lynx home range. Model testing at a cut-off level of P > 0·5 correctly classified more than 80% of the Czech and Slovenian telemetry location data of resident lynx. Application of the model to Germany showed that the most suitable habitats for lynx were large-forested low mountain ranges and the large forests in east Germany. 4. Our approach illustrates how information on habitat fragmentation on a large scale can be linked with local data to the potential benefit of lynx conservation in central Europe. Spatially explicit models like ours can form the basis for further assessing the population viability of species of conservation concern in suitable patches. Journal of Applied Blackwell Science Ltd Ecology 2002 Assessing the suitability of central European 39, 189–203 landscapes for the reintroduction of Eurasian lynx STEPHANIE SCHADT*†, ELOY REVILLA*‡, THORSTEN WIEGAND*, FELIX KNAUER§, PETRA KACZENSKY¶, URS BREITENMOSER**, LUDEK BUFKA††, JAROSLAV CERVENY‡‡, PETR KOUBEK‡‡, THOMAS HUBER¶, CVETKO STANISA§§ and LUDWIG TREPL† *Department of Ecological Modelling, UFZ Centre for Environmental Research, Permoser Str. 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany; †Department für Ökologie, Lehrstuhl für Landschaftsökologie, Technische Universität München, Am Hochanger 6, D-85350 Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany; ‡Department of Applied Biology, Estación Biológica de Doñana, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Avenida María Luisa s/n, E-41013 Sevilla, Spain; §Wildlife Research and Management Unit, Faculty of Forest Sciences, Technische Universität Munich, Field Research Station Linderhof, Linderhof 2, D-82488 Ettal, Germany; ¶Institute of Wildlife Biology and Game Management, Agricultural University of Vienna, Peter-Jordan-Str. 76, A-1190 Vienna, Austria; **Institute of Veterinary Virology, University of Bern, Länggass-Str. 122, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; ††Íumava National Park Administration, Sußická 399, CZ- 34192 Kaßperské Hory, Czech Republic; ‡‡Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Kv´tná 8, CZ-60365 Brno, Czech Republic; §§State Forest Service, Slovenia, Rozna ul. 36, SLO-1330 Kocevje, Slovenia Summary 1. After an absence of almost 100 years, the Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx is slowly recover- ing in Germany along the German–Czech border. Additionally, many reintroduction schemes have been discussed, albeit controversially, for various locations. We present a habitat suitability model for lynx in Germany as a basis for further management and conservation efforts aimed at recolonization and population development. 2. We developed a statistical habitat model using logistic regression to quantify the factors that describe lynx home ranges in a fragmented landscape. As no data were available for lynx distribution in Germany, we used data from the Swiss Jura Mountains for model development and validated the habitat model with telemetry data from the Czech Republic and Slovenia. We derived several variables describing land use and fragmentation, also introducing variables that described the connectivity of forested and non-forested semi-natural areas on a larger scale than the map resolution. 3. We obtained a model with only one significant variable that described the connec- tivity of forested and non-forested semi-natural areas on a scale of about 80 km2. This result is biologically meaningful, reflecting the absence of intensive human land use on the scale of an average female lynx home range. Model testing at a cut-off level of P > 0·5 correctly classified more than 80% of the Czech and Slovenian telemetry location data of resident lynx. Application of the model to Germany showed that the most suitable habitats for lynx were large-forested low mountain ranges and the large forests in east Germany. 4. Our approach illustrates how information on habitat fragmentation on a large scale can be linked with local data to the potential benefit of lynx conservation in central Europe. Spatially explicit models like ours can form the basis for further assessing the population viability of species of conservation concern in suitable patches. Key-words: GIS, large-scale approach, logistic regression, Lynx lynx, spatially explicit connectivity index, species reintroduction, statistical habitat model. Journal of Applied Ecology (2002) 39, 189–203 © 2002 British Correspondence: S. Schadt, Department of Ecological Modelling, UFZ Centre for Environmental Research, Permoser Str. 15, Ecological Society D-04318 Leipzig, Germany (fax + 49 341 235 3500; e-mail [email protected]). 190 Republic (Herrenschmidt & Leger 1987; Breitenmoser Introduction S. Schadt et al. et al. 1993; Cerveny, Koubek & Andera 1996; Cop & Effective nature conservation and habitat restoration Frkovic 1998). In Germany there has been much contro- in human-dominated landscapes require an under- versy over lynx reintroduction, but natural immigration standing of how species respond to habitat fragmenta- has already occurred into the Bavarian Forest due to tion. As anthropogenic activities such as agriculture or the expansion of a population reintroduced to the Czech urban development become prevalent in a region, Bohemian Forest (Cerveny & Bufka 1996) (Fig. 1). native habitats are reduced in area and exist ultimately Given this situation, a large-scale assessment of hab- as remnants in a highly altered matrix (Miller & Cale itat suitability is a necessary prerequisite for the evalu- 2000). Large carnivores provide some of the clearest ation of current initiatives for lynx reintroduction and examples of the fate of species that have to cope with management actions. Although the suitability of some fragmented multi-use landscapes on a large scale. Cen- areas for lynx has been ardently and controversially tral Europe was once covered by dense temperate discussed in Germany, no quantitative habitat model deciduous forests. However, after more than 5000 years yet exists to support these discussions, particularly one of intense human activities only 2% of the original that can describe to what extent the species is tolerant of prime forest remains. At the beginning of the 20th cen- large-scale fragmentation. Some studies have modelled tury, wolves Canis lupus, brown bears Ursus arctos and spatial factors that determine the distribution of the Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx were almost extinct. Since Eurasian lynx, but restricted to local areas (Zimmermann then, there has been slow recovery of wolves in Spain & Breitenmoser 2001) or using algorithms that do not and Italy (Boitani 2000), and bears and Eurasian lynx apply to fragmented areas (Corsi, Sinibaldi & Boitani in Scandinavia, the Carpathians and the Balkan Penin- 1998). Schadt et al. (in press) developed a rule-based sula (Breitenmoser et al. 2000; Swenson et al. 2000). habitat model for lynx in Germany, but this model has The management and conservation of large carni- not been validated with any field data. vores is particularly difficult due to their large require- We aimed to develop a home range suitability model ments for space. Intensive human land use is responsible for the lynx in central Europe based on current under- for habitat fragmentation, which results in direct and standing of its requirements. We wanted our model to indirect conflicts with those carnivores that compete quantify general predictors for lynx home ranges to with humans for the remaining semi-natural space and contribute to the design of a Germany-wide conservation resources (Noss et al. 1996; Woodroffe & Ginsberg plan by (i) identifying the broad distribution of suitable 1998; Revilla, Palomares & Delibes 2001). Many such patches; (ii) obtaining an estimate of possible lynx home species come into direct conflict with people because of ranges in Germany; and (iii) providing a basis for a their predatory