Sudden Oak Death: Economic Impact Assessment Prepared by: Highland Economics | Mason, Bruce & Girard, Inc. 2/15/2019 Prepared for: Oregon Department of Forestry Sudden Oak Death Economic Impact Assessment TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 Executive Summary .............................................................................................................. 5 2.0 Background .......................................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Pathology and Ecology ..................................................................................................... 8 2.2 Regulatory Environment .................................................................................................. 9 2.3 Treatment Progress ........................................................................................................ 10 2.4 Disease Model ................................................................................................................ 12 2.4.1 Susceptible-infected-removed SOD expansion model ........................................... 13 2.4.2 Spatial regression SOD expansion model ............................................................... 13 2.5 Sources of timber industry information ......................................................................... 17 2.6 Source of information for non-timber SOD impacts ...................................................... 17 3.0 SOD Progression ................................................................................................................. 18 3.1 Current Extent ................................................................................................................ 18 3.1 Future Dispersal ............................................................................................................. 18 3.1.1 Alternative A: Continue Current Management ...................................................... 18 3.1.2 Alternative B: Discontinue Management ............................................................... 20 3.1.3 Alternative C: Emphasize EU1 Treatment ............................................................... 20 4.0 Timber Industry Impacts .................................................................................................... 22 4.1 Current Impacts .............................................................................................................. 22 4.1.1 Timber harvest ........................................................................................................ 22 4.1.2 Jobs, Wages, and Tax Revenue ............................................................................... 24 4.1.3 Indirect and Induced Impacts ................................................................................. 28 4.1.4 Logging and Transport Logistics .............................................................................. 29 4.1.5 Sale administration ................................................................................................. 30 4.1.6 Export ...................................................................................................................... 30 4.1.7 Aggregate Current SOD Impacts ............................................................................. 33 4.2 Future Impacts ............................................................................................................... 34 4.2.1 Timber harvest ........................................................................................................ 38 4.2.2 Jobs, Wages, and Tax Revenue ............................................................................... 39 i Sudden Oak Death Economic Impact Assessment 4.2.3 Logging Logistics and Sale administration .............................................................. 41 4.2.4 Export ...................................................................................................................... 41 4.2.5 Alternative A: .......................................................................................................... 46 4.2.6 Alternative B: .......................................................................................................... 47 4.2.7 Alternative C: .......................................................................................................... 49 4.2.8 Aggregate Future SOD Impacts ............................................................................... 50 5.0 Non-Timber Impacts .......................................................................................................... 52 5.1 Tribal cultural values ...................................................................................................... 52 5.1.1 Tribal cultural values: .............................................................................................. 52 5.1.2 Current SOD Impacts on Tribal Cultural Values ...................................................... 54 5.1.3 Future SOD impacts on Tribal cultural values ......................................................... 55 5.2 SOD treatment activities ................................................................................................ 56 5.2.1 Current economic impacts of SOD treatment ........................................................ 56 5.2.2 Future SOD treatment impacts ............................................................................... 56 5.3 Property valuation and aesthetics ................................................................................. 57 5.3.1 Current impacts on aesthetic value ........................................................................ 59 5.3.2 Future aesthetic impacts ........................................................................................ 62 5.4 Public safety hazards ...................................................................................................... 63 5.4.1 Current SOD hazard impacts ................................................................................... 63 5.4.2 Future hazard impacts ............................................................................................ 64 5.5 Recreation and tourism .................................................................................................. 65 5.5.1 Recreation ............................................................................................................... 65 5.5.2 Tourism ................................................................................................................... 66 5.5.3 Current impacts ...................................................................................................... 68 5.5.4 Future impacts ........................................................................................................ 70 5.6 Ecological effects of SOD ................................................................................................ 71 5.6.1 Current SOD ecological impacts.............................................................................. 71 5.6.2 Future impacts ........................................................................................................ 73 5.7 Wildfire risk .................................................................................................................... 76 5.8 Subsistence ..................................................................................................................... 77 6.0 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................ 78 ii Sudden Oak Death Economic Impact Assessment 7.0 References ......................................................................................................................... 83 8.0 Appendix ............................................................................................................................ 89 8.1 Quarantine Definition .................................................................................................... 89 8.2 Disease Model Implementation ..................................................................................... 94 8.3 Timber Harvest ............................................................................................................... 98 8.4 Timber Industry Tax Revenue ...................................................................................... 101 8.5 Baseline Timber Industry Forecast ............................................................................... 107 8.6 Tribal Land Ownership Boundaries .............................................................................. 109 iii Sudden Oak Death Economic Impact Assessment Abbreviations APHIS: Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics GIA: Generally Infested Area LEMMA: Landscape Ecology, Modeling, Mapping, and Analysis MBF: Thousand Board Feet (timber volume unit) MMBF: Million Board Feet (timber volume unit) ODA: Oregon Department of Agriculture ODF: Oregon Department of Forestry OFRI: Oregon Forest Resources Institute Pr: Phytophthora ramorum, oomycete fungal pathogen responsible for causing SOD. PoCB: Port of Coos Bay QCEW: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages QZ: Quarantine Zone SOD: Sudden Oak Death USDA: United States Department of Agriculture USFS: United States Forest Service iv Sudden Oak Death Economic Impact Assessment 1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report estimates economic impacts of Sudden Oak Death (SOD) in southwest