ROADLESS AREA CONSERVATION: NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM LANDS IN COLORADO, Proposed Rule Regulatory Impact Analysis And Cost-Benefit Analysis USDA Forest Service July 16, 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .........................................................................................................................................4 BACKGROUND........................................................................................................................................................25 PURPOSE AND NEED.............................................................................................................................................26 PROPOSED RULE AND ALTERNATIVES .........................................................................................................28 ROADLESS AREA BOUNDARIES ...............................................................................................................................28 ALTERNATIVES........................................................................................................................................................31 IMPLICATIONS OF RELATED PLANNING EFFORTS AND FEDERAL DIRECTION (DONE) ..............38 METHODOLOGY, DATA, AND ASSUMPTIONS...............................................................................................41 SCOPE OF ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................................41 Benefits and Costs..............................................................................................................................................42 Distributional Effects .........................................................................................................................................43 BASELINE DESCRIPTION AND ASSUMPTIONS ...........................................................................................................48 TIME FRAME AND GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE ...................................................................................................................48 DATA SOURCES .......................................................................................................................................................48 ROAD CONSTRUCTION AND TREE-CUTTING PROJECTIONS .................................................................49 ROAD CONSTRUCTION AND RECONSTRUCTION .......................................................................................................49 TREE-CUTTING AND REMOVAL................................................................................................................................53 BENEFITS AND COSTS..........................................................................................................................................55 OVERVIEW OF BENEFITS ASSOCIATED WITH ROADLESS AREAS ..............................................................................55 PREFERENCES AND VALUES AFFECTED BY ALTERNATIVES.....................................................................................56 ANALYSIS OF LOCAL RESOURCE CONCERNS ...........................................................................................................59 Timber (Wood Products) Supply........................................................................................................................59 Minerals and Energy..........................................................................................................................................59 Compliance with EO 13211 (Statement of Energy Effects)................................................................................69 Forest Vegetation and Health ............................................................................................................................70 Fire Ecology and Fuels......................................................................................................................................74 Public Health and Safety....................................................................................................................................80 Special Use Authorizations: Non-Recreational .................................................................................................81 Ski Areas ............................................................................................................................................................84 Other Resources, Services, and Programs.........................................................................................................85 ANALYSIS OF ROADLESS AREA CHARACTERISTICS .................................................................................................86 Scenic Quality ....................................................................................................................................................86 Wilderness..........................................................................................................................................................89 Other Congressionally or Administratively Designated Areas and Trails.........................................................90 Soils, Water, and Air..........................................................................................................................................91 Threatened, Endangered, and Sensitive Species ................................................................................................98 Biodiversity ......................................................................................................................................................110 Invasive Plants .................................................................................................................................................112 Recreation........................................................................................................................................................116 Recreation Special Uses...................................................................................................................................119 Other Resources, Services, and Programs.......................................................................................................120 AGENCY COSTS AND REVENUES............................................................................................................................121 DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS .............................................................................................................................124 ECONOMIC IMPACTS ..............................................................................................................................................124 Economic Profile..............................................................................................................................................124 Values at Risk from Wildfire ............................................................................................................................127 Economic Impacts............................................................................................................................................130 LOCAL GOVERNMENTS..........................................................................................................................................133 Mineral Lease Payments..................................................................................................................................133 Other Revenue Sharing ....................................................................................................................................138 Fuels Treatments..............................................................................................................................................138 SUMMARY OF RESULTS OF REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSIS ..........................................................141 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................................152 3 Executive Summary In November 2006, Colorado Governor Bill Owens petitioned the Secretary of Agriculture to undertake rule-making requesting certain management direction and flexibility for National Forest System (NFS) roadless areas in Colorado. In April 2007, Governor Ritter resubmitted the petition with a substantive letter of transmittal, and in June 2007, the State and the U.S. Forest Service presented the petition with some modifications to the Department of Agriculture’s Roadless Area Conservation National Advisory Committee (RACNAC). In August 2007, based on the advisory committee’s review and report, the Secretary of Agriculture accepted the State’s petition and directed the Forest Service to work in cooperation with the State of Colorado to initiate rulemaking. This report summarizes the regulatory impact analysis for the proposed Colorado Roadless Rule (proposed rule) as directed by Executive Order (E.O.) 12866 issued September 30, 1993, as amended by E.O. 13258 and E.O. 13422 on Regulatory Planning and Review. These executive orders address regulatory planning and review and require that agencies conduct a regulatory analysis for economically significant regulatory actions. Significant regulatory actions are those that have an annual effect on the economy of $100 million or more or adversely affect the economy or economic