University of New Mexico UNM Digital Repository Economics ETDs Electronic Theses and Dissertations Summer 7-24-2020 ASSESSING THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION IN SIDDHARTHANAGAR, NEPAL Bishal Raj Khanal Universitty of New Mexico Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/econ_etds Part of the Economics Commons Recommended Citation Khanal, Bishal Raj. "ASSESSING THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION IN SIDDHARTHANAGAR, NEPAL." (2020). https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/econ_etds/113 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Electronic Theses and Dissertations at UNM Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Economics ETDs by an authorized administrator of UNM Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]. Bishal Raj Khanal Candidate Economics Department This thesis is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication: Approved by the Thesis Committee: Alok K Bohara , Chairperson Andrew Goodkind Sarah S Stith Jingjing Wang i Assessing the Environmental Impacts of Urbanization in Siddharthanagar Nepal BY Bishal Raj Khanal B.Arch., 2014 MLA, 2018 THESIS Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of Master of Arts Economics The University of New Mexico Albuquerque, New Mexico July, 2020 ii Dedication To the unyielding researchers; and to everyone who is saving lives in the Corona pandemic. and to my wife, Prakriti and to my family and friends. iii Acknowledgment I am grateful to my Chair, Dr. Alok K. Bohara, who has been a continuous source of motivation to me. I am thankful to my committee Dr. Andrew Goodkind, Dr. Sarah See Stith, and Dr. Jingjing Wang for providing me valuable advice about the possible implications of urban infrastructural expansion. My sincere gratitude to Paula Panich who has been guiding me to learn the art of writing and helped me edit this work. I am thankful to Dr. Sadhan Mukhi at the Universal College of Medical Sciences (UCMS), Bhairahawa and Swati Thapa at Pratiman Neema Memorial Foundation (PNMF) for helping me find the data required for this study. I would like to extend my gratitude to the Department of Economics and the Nepal Study Center. I am grateful to the Graduate Resource Center (GRC) at UNM for providing me with technical assistance during the completion of this thesis. I am thankful for Rajan Bishwakarma who helped me with statistical modeling. I would also like to thank Aakrit Joshi for reviewing this work. I am thankful to the Economics Department at the University of New Mexico for the opportunity to gain insights into applied microeconomics. iv ASSESSING THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION IN SIDDHARTHANAGAR, NEPAL By Bishal Raj Khanal B.Arch., Pokhara University, Nepal, 2014 M.L.A., University of New Mexico, 2018 M.A., Economics, University of New Mexico, 2020 Abstract: Rapid and haphazard infrastructural expansion often contributes to large negative externalities in cities. Environmental problems like air pollution and degradation of quality-of-life elements in an urban settlement are attributed to urban sprawl. Evidence based planning tools need to be developed which can help manage the rapid urbanization that is taking place in the developing world. In this context, we examine the relationship between health outcomes and the different spatial- temporal aspects of an urban-built environment in Siddharthanagar Metropolitan City which is a major settlement in southwestern Nepal. We attempt to identify the aspects of built environment which are closely associated with the exacerbation of a chronic lung condition, COPD. This study has been modeled in the context of developing world cities, it investigates and formulates a possible technique of assessing urban environment. Keywords: Urbanization, Public Health, Built environment, GIS v Contents LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................ vii LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... vii CHAPTER 1 ................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Urbanization, Environment and Health in Developing Countries ........................................ 1 1.2 Siddharthanagar: Study Site Background ............................................................................. 4 CHAPTER 2 ................................................................................................................................... 7 Literature Review............................................................................................................................ 7 2.1 Urbanization in Developing Countries .................................................................................. 7 2.2 Urban Built Environment and Health Consequences ............................................................ 8 CHAPTER 3 ................................................................................................................................. 11 Data ............................................................................................................................................... 11 3.1 Built Environment Data ...................................................................................................... 11 3.2 Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Data ..................................................... 11 3.3 Data Description .................................................................................................................. 12 CHAPTER 4 ................................................................................................................................. 14 Empirical Methods and Models .................................................................................................... 14 4.1 GIS Map and Spatial Correlation ........................................................................................ 14 4.2 Estimation Methods............................................................................................................. 14 4.3 The Empirical Specification ................................................................................................ 15 4.4 Spatial Models ..................................................................................................................... 16 CHAPTER 5 ................................................................................................................................. 18 Empirical Results .......................................................................................................................... 18 CHAPTER 6 ................................................................................................................................. 24 Discussion, Conclusion and Policy Recommendation.................................................................. 24 APPENDIX ................................................................................................................................... 27 References ..................................................................................................................................... 31 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Description of variables used in this analysis Table 2: Moran’s I Results on Raw Data Table 2: Parameter estimation results using OLS estimator Table 3: Moran’s I Results Table 3: Spatial Regression Results LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: 13 Wards of Siddharthanagar Municipality Figure 2: The distribution of built-up area, open areas, roads and bar graph comparing PerCOPD with NoFactory vii CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1.1 Urbanization, Environment and Health in Developing Countries Urbanization is a recent phenomenon in human history and is unique to the past few centuries. Prior to 1600, the estimated share of the world population living in urban settings was less than 5 percent; after 1600, the number reached 7 percent in 1800, and 16 percent by 1900 (Ritchie & Roger, 2018). In 1950, the population living in urban areas was 30 percent, which increased to 55 percent by 2018. (United Nations, 2018). In 2050, it is projected that 68 percent of the world’s population will live in an urban setting (Ritchie & Roger, 2018). The beginning of this increase was partially due to the fact that building projects could be carried out faster after the Industrial Revolution, which allowed for mass-produced building materials. Economic development and technological advancement enabled people to alter a landscape on a grander scale. Later, it was possible for urban-mega cities such as Shanghai to be built in a matter of a few decades (Taylor, 2013). This study seeks to clarify the relationship between urbanization and socioeconomic- growth, particularly the built-in environment and health aspects of urbanization. Nothing else presents as many opportunities for socio-economic growth as urbanization, which is why it deserves the urgent attention of policymakers, academics, entrepreneurs, and reformers (Fuller & Romer, 2014). 1 In urban design and planning, the construct made for human settlement and use is often referred to as the built environment. The built environment