GOOD 6GOVERNANCE: Strengthening trust between people and their leaders 76 FORESIGHT AFRICA Institutional resources for overcoming Africa’s COVID-19 crisis and enhancing prospects for post-pandemic reconstruction “The policymakers' approach in the process of preparation of the modern state for the next pandemic, necessarily, involves the transformation of public finance and public administration, the backbone of any country's economic and social development, and the key instrument for the success of design and implementation of government policies and plans, respectively. This process will require a break with the old assumptions, and a bet on new and modern paradigms, approaches, and working methods.” Madame Luísa Dias Diogo, Former Prime Minister and Former Minister of Planning & Finance, Mozambique Popular explanations for Africa’s down measures and consistent “lucky escape” from COVID-19’s messaging about wearing face most devastating effects have masks.122 While such early gov- largely focused on the continent’s ernment actions likely saved thou- natural endowments, especially sands of lives, Africa’s citizens, who its youthful population and warm largely complied with extremely weather. When Africa’s own agen- inconvenient top-down measures cy is recognized, though, observers even where governments’ adminis- tend to give credit to its govern- trative and enforcement capacities ments’ early and aggressive lock- were weak, deserve praise as well. Importance of political capital in pandemic crisis management and recovery Ordinary Africans’ contribution to for securing compliance with nec- the success of lockdown programs essary but arduous government or- highlights the importance of state ders, especially those vital to public legitimacy and trust in government health and safety.123 122 Kevin Marsh and Moses Alobo, “COVID-19: Examining Theories for Africa’s Low Death Rates,” The E. Gyimah-Boadi Conversation, October 7, 2020. 123 Danielle Resnick, “Trust in Science and in Government Plays a Crucial Role in COVID-19 Response,” International Food Policy Research Institute, June 10, 2020. Mark Lawrence Schrad, “The Secret to CEO and Board Chair, Coronavirus Success is Trust,” Foreign Policy, April 15, 2020. See also Robert A. Blair et al., “Public Afrobarometer Health and Public Trust: Survey Evidence from the Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic in Liberia,” Social Science & Medicine 172 (January 2017): 89-97, which highlights the extent to which trust in @gyimahboadi government was a critical resource for securing the public cooperation necessary to overcome the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa. 77 TOP PRIORITIES FOR THE CONTINENT IN 2021 An examination of recent COVID-related events fore the subsequent unveiling of economic and and Afrobarometer surveys in 34 African coun- social relief packages. Malawi’s government, on tries can provide more insight into this phenom- the other hand, has faced considerable public re- enon. For example, Ghana has relatively strong sistance to anti-pandemic measures, including institutions, with free media, strong opposition a successful court case challenging a lockdown parties, and independent judiciaries. Before the on the basis of undue economic harm.124 Other pandemic, in Afrobarometer’s 2016/2018 sur- factors, such as Malawi’s relatively greater pov- veys, Ghana’s core state institutions enjoyed very erty, may also play a role in the two peoples’ di- high levels of perceived legitimacy (84 percent), vergent responses to COVID-19 measures, but it and President Nana Akufo-Addo was trusted seems likely that perceptions of their leaders and by 70 percent of citizens. In contrast, Malawi institutions helped shape citizens’ willingness to ranked lowest in perceived institutional legiti- follow their dictates. macy (53 percent), and its then-president, Peter Mutharika—before losing his bid for re-election Another pairing makes a similar point: In Senegal, in June 2020—enjoyed the trust of just 36 per- where 73 percent of citizens expressed trust in cent of Malawians (Figure 6.1). the president, the COVID-19 response has drawn international praise,125 while Nigeria (where trust As the pandemic set in, public responses to for the president hovers around 45 percent) has COVID lockdowns varied significantly: Ghana- contended with widespread flouting of public ians accepted the lockdown measures their health guidelines and the looting of government president announced in March 2020 even be- warehouses storing COVID-19 relief supplies.126 FIGURE 6.1 POLITICAL CAPITAL OF LEADERS, SELECTED COUNTRIES High levels of state legitimacy and trust in presidents can support an effective response to a crisis. In countries with deficits in these assets, trust in traditional and religious leaders might be an especially valuable resource when responding to crises. Visual Key State legitimacy Trust traditional and (courts, police, and Trust president religious leaders 51% - 100% tax agencies) (average) 0% - 50% Burkina Faso 71% 67% 84% Gabon 70% 29% 40% Note Ghana 84% 70% 61% Respondents were asked For “State legitimacy”: For each of the following statements, please tell me Kenya 72% 62% 68% whether you disagree or agree: • The police always have the right to Malawi 53% 36% 74% make people obey the law. • The courts have the right to make decisions that people always have Nigeria 73% 45% 54% to abide by. • The tax authorities always have Senegal 78% 73% 85% the right to make people pay taxes. (Figure shows the percent of respondents that “agree” or “strongly Sierra Leone 85% 70% 78% agree” with each statement) South Africa 67% 38% 43% For “Trust”: How much do you trust each of the following, or haven’t you heard enough about them to say? Tanzania 82% 73% 54% (Figure shows the percent of respondents that say “somewhat” or Uganda 86% 64% 79% “a lot”) Zimbabwe 85% 64% 65% Source 34-country average 75% 52% 63% “R7 2016/18,” Afrobarometer, 2019. 124 Rabson Kondowe, “This Country’s High Court Blocked Its Coronavirus Lockdown in a Bid to Protect the Poor,” Quartz Africa, April 17, 2020. 125 “Coronavirus in Senegal: Keeping COVID-19 at Bay,” BBC, October 4, 2020. 126 Percey Dabang and Angela Ukomadu, “In Nigeria, Looters Target Government Warehouses Stocked with COVID-19 Relief,” Reuters, November 9, 2020. “COVID-19: Can Nigeria Avert Another Lockdown?” APA News, May 6, 2020. 78 FORESIGHT AFRICA Enhancing prospects for overcoming Africa’s COVID-19 crisis and post- pandemic reconstruction If political capital can aid in the management of other crises by tapping into the political capital a pandemic, then African leaders must aim to of informal leaders, such as religious and tra- create an environment for its conservation or en- ditional leaders. On average, almost two-thirds hancement as they confront COVID-19 and the (63 percent) of Africans expressed trust in these next crisis. non-elected leaders (69 percent for religious leaders and 57 percent for traditional leaders), But threats to public trust are often on the hori- although these trust levels, too, vary widely by zon, especially in times of crisis: Reports of ir- country, from just 40 percent in Gabon to 85 per- regularities and corruption in the management cent in Senegal (Figure 6.1). Indeed, some Afri- of COVID-19 funds and relief not only impede the can presidents have recognized this organic in- effectiveness of those measures but also under- stitutional resource and explicitly mobilized it in mine trust and legitimacy in government leaders managing the pandemic through consultations and core institutions.127 with informal leaders (South Africa) and public acknowledgements of their important contribu- Excessive reliance on coercion in the enforce- tions in sensitizing and encouraging compliance ment of COVID-19 measures can be detrimental in their communities (Nigeria and Uganda).130 as well.128 Similarly, attempts by some govern- ments to leverage the pandemic to introduce In conclusion, African governments will be in repressive legislation and curb media freedoms much better position to effectively overcome and other civil liberties will only erode the demo- the COVID-19 crisis and enhance prospects cratic governance gains of the past 20 years and for post-pandemic reconstruction if they show likely face significant popular pushback.129 true commitment to conserving and deepening domestic political capital, strengthening the so- African governments can shore up their deficits cial contract with their citizens, and governing and strengthen their responses to COVID-19 and accountably. While early government actions to prevent the spread of COVID-19 likely saved thousands of lives, Africa’s citizens, who largely complied with extremely inconvenient top-down measures even where governments’ administrative and enforcement capacities were weak, deserve praise as well. 127 For example, Pearson’s r for the correlation between trust in the president and perceived corruption in the office of the president for Afrobarometer Round 7 is -.387, significant at the 0.01 level. See Michael Bratton and E. Gyimah-Boadi, “Do Trustworthy Institutions Matter for Development? Corruption, Trust, and Government Performance in Africa,” Afrobarometer Dispatch 112 (August 2016). 128 In April, Kenya and Nigeria reportedly had more citizens killed by security agents “enforcing” pandemic-related restrictions than by the coronavirus. See Alison Sargent, “Curfew Crackdowns in Several African Countries Kill More People than COVID-19,” France24, April 17, 2020. “Coronavirus: What Does