The Thickening Web of Asian Security Cooperation Deepening Defense Ties Among U.S. Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific Scott W. Harold, Derek Grossman, Brian Harding, Jeffrey W. Hornung, Gregory Poling, Jeffrey Smith, Meagan L. Smith C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR3125 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0333-9 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover photo by Japan Maritime Self Defense Force. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Since the turn of the century, an important trend toward new or expanded defense cooperation among U.S. allies and security partners in the Indo-Pacific has been unfolding. Such a trend has the potential to create, realign, or simply reflect changes in regional actors’ interests, identities, and commitments in important ways that could reinforce or reduce U.S. influence; help knit the region more closely together in ways that complicate aggression by revisionist powers; and create new and dynamic bi-, tri-, and multilateral groupings. This report tracks and analyzes the growth in defense cooperation among U.S. allies and security partners in several key areas. It looks at three key questions: What sorts of new or expanded defense activities are U.S. allies and security partners in the Indo-Pacific engaging in over roughly the last two decades? Why are these actors cooperating in new areas and/or elevating their engagements in existing spaces? And what are the impli- cations for U.S. national security as well as regional stability of these new or expanded types of defense cooperation? This analysis should be of interest to several communities: ana- lysts concerned with U.S. national security and foreign policy, observ- ers who pay attention to key Indo-Pacific security developments, and specialists who focus on defense industrial sector developments. This research was sponsored by the MacArthur Foundation’s Asian Security Initiative and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant iii iv The Thickening Web of Asian Security Cooperation Commands, the defense agencies, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Intelligence Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see www.rand.org/ nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the webpage). This report is dedicated to the memory of Angel Rabasa, a col- league, friend, and key member of the study team who fell ill in 2015 and passed away in 2016. His loss is still felt, and his warm laugh and sharp insights are sorely missed. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ............................................................... ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ...............................................................xv Abbreviations ................................................................... xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction: Thickening the Web of Asian Security Cooperation ..... 1 Trends in Security in the Indo-Pacific Region ................................. 1 Purpose, Approach, and Organization .........................................10 CHAPTER TWO Japan: Strengthening Defense Cooperation to Reinforce Region Order in the Shadow of a Rising China ................................19 Data and Methodology .......................................................... 20 Country-by-Country Analysis .................................................. 30 Japanese Explanations of Defense Cooperation Patterns .....................61 Conclusions and Implications of Japan’s Defense Cooperation for the United States and the Region ...............................................69 CHAPTER THREE The Republic of Korea: Middle Power Diplomacy, “Asia’s Paradox” Spur Expanding Defense Cooperation Under Constraints .........71 Data and Methodology ...........................................................75 Country-by-Country Analysis ...................................................76 Korean Explanations for the ROK’s Patterns of Defense Cooperation ... 101 v vi The Thickening Web of Asian Security Cooperation The Future of South Korea’s Regional Defense Cooperation and Implications for the United States ....................................... 106 CHAPTER FOUR India: From Nonalignment to Engagement with Strategic Autonomy ...................................................... 111 Background ...................................................................... 112 India’s Growing Indo-Pacific Defense Cooperation ........................ 116 Conclusion: Drivers of India’s Defense Relationship Diversification ..... 147 CHAPTER FIVE Australia: Expanding Defense Cooperation amid Alliance Dependency ..................................................... 159 Data and Methodology ......................................................... 160 Historical Background ......................................................... 161 Security Engagements .......................................................... 167 A Missing Component ......................................................... 214 Conclusion ....................................................................... 216 CHAPTER SIX Indonesia: Growing Defense Cooperation in a Period of Transition ............................................................... 219 Background ...................................................................... 220 International Defense Diplomacy ............................................. 227 Summary of Findings........................................................... 241 Conclusion ....................................................................... 247 CHAPTER SEVEN Vietnam: Seeking Partners Through Omnidirectional Engagement ................................................................ 249 Policy Reorientation Drives Proliferation of Relationships ................ 251 Omnidirectional Foreign Policy in the China Context .................... 256 Regional Partnerships with Other Countries in This Study ............... 260 Other Actors ..................................................................... 280 Beyond China: Other Drivers of Vietnam’s Defense Partnerships? ....... 285 Concluding Thoughts and Policy Implications ............................. 289 Contents vii CHAPTER EIGHT The Philippines: Modernization with a More Diverse Set of Partners .................................................................. 293 Background: Factors Motivating and Shaping Expanding Defense Cooperation ...................................................... 296 Philippines Security Cooperation with Select Indo-Pacific Partner Nations ............................................................. 304 The Rest: Ties with Vietnam, Indonesia, and India Remain Nascent .... 321 Other Defense Cooperation Partners: China, Russia, ASEAN, Canada, Israel, and Europe ............................................... 329 Conclusion ....................................................................... 342 CHAPTER NINE Conclusions: The Future of a Densely Networked Indo-Pacific Defense Community ..................................................... 345 History, Identity, and Norms Shape Defense Cooperation ................ 346 State Capacity and Military Capabilities Are Key Drivers ................. 348 Counterterrorism and Intelligence Sharing Pave the Way ................. 349 Cyber, Maritime Law Enforcement Key Areas for Expanded Cooperation .................................................... 349 The United States Is Indispensable—But So Are U.S. Allies .............. 350 Indonesia Merits Particular Attention ........................................ 352 Deepening Ties with Nonaligned Partners a Worthy Goal ................ 353 Other Important Partners Merit Attention, Too ............................ 354 Conclusions and Implications ................................................. 355 References ......................................................................