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1 11 2 3 4 5 THE ASPEN INSTITUTE 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 ASPEN IDEAS FESTIVAL 20 21 22 23 24 YOUSEF AL OTAIBA 25 26 27 28 1 21LIST OF PARTICIPANTS 2 3 4 ELLIOT GERSON 5 Executive Vice President of Policy and Public 6 Programs, International Partnerships 7 8 JEFFREY GOLDBERG 9 National correspondent, The Atlantic 10 Moderator 11 12 YOUSEF AL OTAIBA 13 United Arab Emirates Ambassador to the United States 14 and Mexico 15 16 1 31 P R O C E E D I N G S2 MR. GERSON: Ladies and gentlemen, if I could 3have your attention, please. Ladies and gentlemen, given 4the great interest in the conversation we're about to 5participate in, I'd like to get started. I know some of 6you are still getting food, but I really don't want to 7take more time. So I'd like now -- I'm Elliot Gerson, and8it's my great pleasure to introduce Jeff Goldberg.9 Jeff needs no introduction, really, of course, a10national correspondent for the Atlantic. I don't think 11there is a journalist in the country who is more respected12on topics relating to the Middle East. He is a polymath. 13He writes about many other things as well. But what he 14says about the Middle East is carefully observed.15 He's also been a co-conspirator in every sense 16with the Aspen Institute in planning all aspects of the 17Ideas Festival. So he has become a great friend of all of18ours, and he invariably is chosen by all of you as the 19festival's favorite moderator. I will give it over to 20Jeff, who will introduce our distinguished speaker. Jeff.21 MR. GOLDBERG: Wow, that was really nice. I 22should just go home now. Thank you, Elliot. 1 41 Can everybody hear, in the back, in the front? Thank2you for coming out today. This is going to be a very 3interesting conversation with Israel's ambassador to the 4United States.5 (Laughter)6 MR. GOLDBERG: Oh, wait, that's the next one, 7I'm sorry. No, I always -- 8 SPEAKER: That's okay.9 MR. GOLDBERG: I'm always getting them confused,10it's unbelievable. Actually, our guest today is most 11often confused with the mayor of Washington. People often12are coming up to him complaining about garbage collection.13He does have an uncanny appearance to Adrian Fenty. But 14this is in fact the ambassador from the United Arab 15Emirates, Yousef Al Otaiba, who is obviously a good friend16of the Aspen Institute, and I think we'll hear a little 17bit about that.18 I won't go into the lengthy bio. He is a very 19accomplished young man. He is -- for many years, I think 20before you came to Washington, you were foreign policy 21advisor or national security advisor to the Crown Prince 22of Abu Dhabi. He is someone I've gotten to know quite 1 51well in Washington. He is a rather overenthusiastic 2Georgetown basketball fan. But I don't -- 3 MR. OTAIBA: Especially when they're good.4 MR. GOLDBERG: Especially when they're good. He5is a fly-by-night one. But we're going to jump right into6this in this kind of odds. I feel like we're like some 7sort of multi-ethnic folk duo, sitting in these chairs, I 8guess. 9 (Laughter)10 MR. GOLDBERG: -- we're going to -- 11 MR. OTAIBA: Someone is going to bring out a 12band -- 13 MR. GOLDBERG: Yeah, no, I'm afraid like bands 14were playing, it's going to breakout in this setting. But15it's okay, because Aspen is about bringing people together.16 Let me -- I thought we would start with 17something rather basic before we move into some of the 18hot-button issues of the day, and that is -- there is a 19kind of confusion sometimes about what exactly is the 20United Arab Emirates. How was it formed, and how many 21Emirates are there, and how they are governed, and how the22UAE is different from Saudi Arabia, say. And I was 1 61wondering if you could in a minute and a half give us the 2entire history of your country.3 (Laughter)4 MR. OTAIBA: Absolutely. You've given me way 5too much time.6 MR. GOLDBERG: Yeah. It's a new country.7 MR. OTAIBA: First, let me start off by thanking8everyone for coming. Thank you, Jeff, for organizing this.9 I thought I was coming here really to -- I 10didn't know anything about this interview. I was actually11looking for a place that's showing the World Cup, so they 12said go to Meadows Restaurant, you get -- they're showing 13the World Cup and you get free lunch. So I was under -- I14was led here under false pretenses.15 MR. GOLDBERG: Yeah.16 MR. OTAIBA: Let me tell you a little bit about 17the UAE. Basically, it's small federation. It's about 18the size of the state of Maine. I'll try to make 19analogies to U.S., so people can understand. It's about 20the size of the state of Maine, composed of about seven 21different emirates, which until 1971 were independent.22 In 1971, Sheikh Zayid, our late president, had 1 71the idea of uniting them because he found that a stronger 2federation would be a much more beneficial entity than 3having small -- seven small weaker sheikhdoms. So in 19714we merged and formed the United Arab Emirates, and it is 5the only successful federation in the Middle East until 6today.7 Not unlike the United States, we have a federal 8system and a local system of government, kind of like the 9state system and the federal system here in the U.S. 10Foreign policy, security, energy policy are always driven 11at the federal level, but economy, leasing and various 12civilian and municipal events are usually driven by the 13local level. So it's still a kind of a harmony between 14the two systems of government, federal and local. But 15there is a lot, I think, that the UAE can be proud of.16 One, for example, we have one of the most 17advanced compositions of women's rights and movements of 18women's rights. Today, in the UAE, college enrollment in 19all of our universities is over 74 percent female, and our20public workforce, 64 percent of the public workforce in 21the UAE are women.22 And I -- there is something that -- it's usually 1 81not well understood in the Middle East, but I think in UAE2it's kind of leading the way and it's something that we're3very proud of, and I think more people need to know about 4them. I can happily go into more, but I'll prefer if we 5sort of -- 6 MR. GOLDBERG: No, that was the easy question; 7now, let me start with the hard ones. The -- this isn't 8actually a hard one, but I do want you to come back to 9this. Saudi Arabia is the 800-pound gorilla of the 10Arabian Peninsula. Talk about this in very specific ways.11How are you different than Saudi Arabia? And talk about 12it in the application of Islam, talk about it in terms of 13women, talk about it in terms of your positions on various14issues, including the peace process.15 MR. OTAIBA: Well, as the 800-pound gorilla in 16the region, that is obviously what most people turn to and17use that as a benchmark. In Saudi Arabia, it's a very, 18very different system of government and society is far 19more influenced by religious issues and religious thought.20It is far less secular than most countries in the region.21 And unfortunately, we usually get -- we become 22deemed guilty by association, and people have a kind of 1 91monolithic view of the region. People tend to think in 2the entire Middle East women cannot drive, or in the 3entire Middle East women must cover up. And these are 4absolutely not true. In Saudi Arabia there is a much 5stronger influence of religious issues, and it relates 6only to Saudi Arabia. I can't sit here and criticize or 7critique each country's policies, but the UAE is very 8different.9 The UAE, I believe, is by far the most moderate,10liberal and modern society in the Middle East. And anyone11who has been there can attest to what the things the UAE 12are doing are far more advanced than many of the countries13in the region.14 Today, as an oil producer, for example -- and 15I'll use this as a -- just as a anecdote -- we produce 16about two-and-a-half million barrels of oil per day. Now,17most oil-producing countries depend largely on their 18revenues from oil and gas sector, but in the UAE we've 19tried very hard and continue to try to diversify our 20economy.21 And our GDP percentage from oil and gas sector 22is actually below 35 percent, 65 percent of our GDP is 1 101from non-oil and gas, and the desire and the policy is to 2try to drive that number down even lower. And the idea 3is, we recognize oil as a finite resource, it is not going4to last forever. And building an economy that doesn't 5depend on a resource that will run out in 100 or 200 years6is where we see ourselves.7 MR. GOLDBERG: But isn't it true that, we saw it8in the recent past, the near collapse of Dubai's economy. 9Talk about that in the context of what you just said. And10compare and contrast, if you will, Abu Dhabi and Dubai, 11and explain the roles they play in the federation.12 MR. OTAIBA: In very short analogy, I would say 13Abu Dhabi is more like Washington D.C. It is the base of 14government; it is more conservative; it is more 15traditional, and that's where really all the money is.16 Dubai is more like New York City. It's more 17vibrant, fast-paced, commercial, corporate, lots of 18tourism. The reason, I think, Dubai is suffering 19economically is not unlike the reason the U.S. is 20suffering economically right now. Dubai put all their 21eggs in one basket, and that basket was real estate. And 22when the real estate market crashed, a lot of their 1 111economy crashed.2 Now, what we've seen, I think, in the economic 3crisis is that no one is immune. And the countries that 4became most affected are the countries that were most 5globalized. So you pay a higher price when your economy 6is interdependent with the rest of the worlds.7 I believe Dubai is going to have some challenges8that they're going to continue to deal with for the next 9few years. But fundamentally, Dubai is still going to be 10a successful city because people still like the lifestyle 11there, people enjoy living there. It's a very high level 12of infrastructure. Corporations all over the world find 13it to be a very good place to base their business in the 14region because it's convenient to hop and cover the region15from there. And it is very liberal, it's very tolerant.16 In fact, I relate back to the Saudi question, we17have a large, large number of Saudis who actually have 18moved their families to Dubai or Abu Dhabi. They will 19continue to work in Saudi and come to the UAE on weekends,20why? Because their families enjoy a different lifestyle, 21because their wives can drive their kids to school, and 22they can go to the shopping center; they can't do these 1 121things in Saudi Arabia. So Dubai has attracted not people2-- not only people from the West and from corporate world 3but also people from the region.4 MR. GOLDBERG: Is the UAE a friend of the United5States?6 MR. OTAIBA: Absolutely not, no.7 (Laughter)8 MR. GOLDBERG: You could all Twitter -- you 9could all tweet that right now.10 (Laughter)11 MR. OTAIBA: I think, in light of what's going 12on in the region, and I can't speak for the 13administration, but I don't believe there is another more 14reliable partner and ally in the region than the United 15Arab Emirates. Let me give you a few numbers.16 The UAE for the last 4 years has been the U.S.' 17largest export market; larger than Saudi, Egypt, and 18Israel. The U.S. has approximately 2,000 military folks 19stationed in the UAE, doing various types of operations in20support of Iraq and Afghanistan. UAE is the single 21largest military -- purchaser of military equipment from 22the United States. We are in the range of about $20 1 131billion in the last 2 years of just U.S. military 2equipment purchases alone. And we have about another $20 3billion in the pipeline over the next 2 years.4 Let me turn things around and let me just ask a 5question to the audience. Is anybody here aware, have any6idea, how many Middle Eastern countries are actually 7serving in Afghanistan right now or has troops in 8Afghanistan? This is actually quite conflicting because 9it's both a source of pride and a source of shame at the 10same time.11 The UAE has been in Afghanistan since 2002. 12It's a source of pride for me to be there because, you 13know, I think we're doing the right thing and we're 14fighting side by side with the Americans and everyone 15else. But it's very embarrassing to know that you're the 16-- we're the only Arab country in Afghanistan.17 I think Afghanistan is not America's issue; 18Afghanistan is the world's issue, and if we don't all sort19of collaborate -- 20 (Applause)21 MR. GERSON: The guys outside are listening, 22they're listening, they're listening. 1 141 MR. GOLDBERG: The people outside are more -- 2yeah, yeah, yeah, there are apparently people behind us 3now.4 (Laughter)5 MR. OTAIBA: If we don't stabilize Afghanistan, 6and if we don't work with the government of Afghanistan, 7we all risk, not just the U.S., we all risk another type 8of 9/11. And if anyone believes that only the U.S. is 9target of these kinds of operations, you'll be sadly 10mistaken. I can tell you for a fact that we have foiled 11at least 25 different operations that are targeting the 12UAE in the last 10 years. So the U.S. is not the only 13target, we are just as much of a target. And if we don't 14do it, and we if we don't cooperate and help the 15Afghanistan, we will be at the end of these operations 16just like you.17 MR. GOLDBERG: You talk about your closeness to 18the United States, but there is a criticism within the 19Obama administration and with the Bush administration 20previously that the UAE is playing a bit of a double game 21when it comes to doing business with Iran. There are 22widespread feeling in the Treasury Department and other 1 151places that UAE is, let's say, less than religiously 2devoted to a sanctions regime that the U.S., both 3administrations, Bush and Obama, want to see imposed on 4Iran. Can you talk about that?5 MR. OTAIBA: Sure.6 MR. GOLDBERG: Because it seems to be a big -- 7when I talk to people in government about the UAE, they 8say, yes, it's an ally, but.9 MR. OTAIBA: UAE and Iran have been traditional,10economic, and regional neighbors and partners for hundreds11and thousands of years. There is nothing that is going to12say, no matter what kind of sanctions, the UAE must 13physically move from Iran. It's not like we just bought a14house and we don't like it, we can move. We are going to 15be Iran's neighbors whether we like it or not.16 That said, we have some major, major issues of 17divergence with Iran. And it's not just the sanctions, 18and it's not just U.S. policy. Iran occupies three of 19UAE's islands since 1971. That is our biggest problem 20with them at this moment. And they refuse to go to any 21arbitration or the ICJ. So we have, bilaterally, a very 22big problem with them on that level. 1 161 Second, we have some major concerns with their 2nuclear program. And for those of you who don't know, the3reactor in Bushehr is closer to most capitals in the Gulf 4than it is to Tehran, and I'm pretty sure that's not an 5accident. So from a safety and security standpoint we 6have some major issues and concerns with their nuclear 7program, not only their transparency or the ultimate 8objective of what we think their nuclear program is.9 And last but not least, we are very concerned 10with Iran's behavior in the region. We see very strong 11Iranian influence in Iraq, in Lebanon, in Gaza, in Yemen, 12and in parts in Afghanistan. So without the first two 13issues, without the islands issue or the nuclear issue, 14Iran's behavior is problematic. And in the national 15interest of the UAE, Iranian influence must be contained. 16Now, we've advocated very, very strongly that the UN 17sanctions be as tough and as direct and as strong as 18possible, and hope -- 19 MR. GOLDBERG: The way you enforce compliance 20within the UAE business -- 21 MR. OTAIBA: Absolutely. On the UN sanctions, 22we will comply just like we have of the past three, to a 1 171T. There is not going to be an ounce of doubt whether the2UAE will abide by any UN sanctions, resolutions, whether 3it's on Iran or anyone else.4 MR. GOLDBERG: I asked you before if UAE were 5friend of America, but let me reserve it. Is America 6friend to UAE? And the reason I ask this is two-fold; 7one, the Dubai Ports World controversy in which, among 8other people, the current secretary of State was very 9involved in arguing against giving that business to UAE as10a senator from New York. And two, do you believe that 11America has the UAE's back when it comes to Iran? Deal 12with the first one first and the second one second, or the13second one first and the first one second.14 (Laughter)15 MR. GOLDBERG: -- freedom of choice.16 MR. OTAIBA: Let me start by the first. I've 17been working in government now for about 10 years. And 18the portfolio that has taken up most of my time, hands 19down, is the U.S.-UAE portfolio. Our cooperation with the 20U.S. has increased dramatically in every sector possible 21in the past 10 years.22 If you look at the graph, if we graph it, it has 1 181been in constant upward trend; whether it's economical, 2political, social, health care, education, trade, 3everything has been increasing over the last 10 years. So4if you take the 10-year graph, we're doing quite well. If5you take the blip on the graph, which was Dubai Ports 6World, then, yes, it was a very unfortunate incident.7 MR. GOLDBERG: Can you explain the controversy 8for a minute, just in case people don't remember?9 MR. OTAIBA: Sure. It was about 6 years ago. 10Dubai Ports World is a company that operates ports in the 11UAE and in 19 different countries, and they were on a 12major expansion move, and they bought this company called 13P&O, and it's a British company that operates some ports 14in the U.S. in six major cities.15 So, basically, to really boil it down, this 16became a very internal political U.S. debate where the 17Democrats attacked the Republicans for allowing an Arab 18country to manage ports in the U.S. And this was 19essentially a chance for the Democrats to beat up the 20Republicans on an issue that the Republicans tend to 21usually use as their strong suit, security. And so it 22became an internal battle. I think there was really very 1 191little to do with the UAE.2 I actually had a senior democratic official, and3who shall remain nameless, tell me, look, you gave us this4on a silver platter. If it was any other country, we 5would have done exactly the same thing. It was purely 6internal politics. We got a chance to go at the 7Republicans, and that's what we did. So the UAE was a 8collateral damage in something internal in the U.S.9 Now, the lessons we learned is that the U.S. 10really doesn't understand the UAE -- this is 6 years ago, 11so we put a poll and we asked people. And one of the 12major questions -- and this was kind of the barometer of 13the poll for me -- was what is your overall impression of 14the UAE; favorable, unfavorable, no impression? Forty 15percent said no impression; 30 percent said favorable; 30 16percent said unfavorable.17 So if you look at the pie graph, what I saw was 1870 percent potential for having a favorable impression of 19the UAE. And that's when we launched a public diplomacy 20program to really raise the awareness of people in the 21United States about who the UAE is, what we do, what our 22policies are. And the more we tell people, the more 1 201people are surprised that, hey, the UAE are pretty much 2aligned on us on almost all of the issues.3 Now, I'll give you another example. Two weeks 4ago, I sat in a strategic dialogue, discussion with the 5United States, both Pentagon and the State Department, and6we had a delegation mirrored at the same level from our 7side. So we went through the litany of issues; Iraq, 8Afghanistan, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran. We went 9through everything, and at the end of 2 days, there was 10nothing we disagreed on. We are aligned on every policy 11issue there is in the Middle East. I think tactics may 12differ, but in terms of overall outlook, we're always on 13the same page.14 MR. GOLDBERG: But wait, let's just -- let me 15sharpen the second half of my question and ask you this 16point blank. Do you want the United States to stop the 17Iranian nuclear program by force?18 MR. OTAIBA: Absolutely, absolutely. I think we19are at risk of an Iranian nuclear program far more than 20you are at risk. You have two oceans -- 21 MR. GOLDBERG: Me, Jeffrey Goldberg, or me, 22representative of the Jewish people, or me -- 1 211 (Laughter)2 MR. OTAIBA: And the United States.3 MR. GOLDBERG: The United States, okay, just 4checking.5 MR. OTAIBA: The United States -- 6 MR. GOLDBERG: I wear a lot of hats.7 (Laughter)8 MR. OTAIBA: -- at 7,000 miles away and with two9oceans bordering you, an Iranian nuclear threat does not 10threaten continental United States. It may threaten your 11assets in the region, it will threaten the peace process, 12it will threaten balance of power, it will threaten 13everything else, but it will not threaten you.14 MR. GOLDBERG: So are you suggesting that the 15leadership of the UAE is like Bibi Netanyahu, but more?16 MR. OTAIBA: I am suggesting that I think -- and17of every country in the region, UAE is most vulnerable to 18Iran. Our military, who has existed for the past 40 19years, wake up, dream, breathe, eat, sleep the Iranian 20threat. It's the only conventional military threat our 21military plans for, trains for, equips for, that's it, 22there is no other threat. There is no country in the 1 221region that parlays the threat to the UAE, it's only Iran.2And so, yes, it is very much in our interest that Iran 3does not gain nuclear technology.4 MR. GOLDBERG: Okay. So let's play this out a 5little bit more. George W. Bush didn't take out the 6Iranian nuclear program by force. Do you have any 7expectation at all that Barack Obama, who was elected not 8to attack another Muslim country, do you have any 9expectation at all that Barack Obama will, if sanctions 10fail, move to a more militant posture on Iran.11 MR. OTAIBA: Yes, that's the million dollar 12question. That's -- 13 MR. GOLDBERG: Right, that's why I'm asking it.14 MR. OTAIBA: I don't think anybody knows. I 15honestly don't think -- 16 MR. GOLDBERG: But take a guess.17 (Laughter)18 MR. OTAIBA: I believe that if it comes down to 19it, there is going to be some very serious people sitting 20in a room and drawing the line that people must respect. 21And we need to figure out and we need to be told what that22line is - if you're willing or if you're not willing; 1 231because there are many countries in the region who, if 2they lack of insurance that the U.S. is willing to 3confront Iran, they will start running for cover towards 4Iran. Small, rich, vulnerable countries in the region do 5not want to be the ones who stick their finger in the big 6bully's eye, if no one is going to come to their support.7 MR. GOLDBERG: So what you're saying, you would 8ally yourself with Iran, rather than be attacked by Iran.9 MR. OTAIBA: The UAE is probably the last 10country that will ever do that, simply because we have a 11historical -- 12 MR. GOLDBERG: Well, Israel will probably be the13last country to ever do that.14 (Laughter)15 MR. OTAIBA: I think there are a lot of other 16Arab countries who you risk losing to Iran than the UAE. 17And again, I stress the point. I think whatever the U.S. 18decides to do needs to be very seriously conveyed to the 19people in the region, so they can decide which way they 20want to go.21 MR. GOLDBERG: That's pretty drastic. Do you --22come back to your impressions of President Obama after 18 1 241months or so in office, do you feel that this 2administration understands the stakes on the Iranian 3question the way you understand them? I mean, I ask this 4-- a person we both know in the administration said, you 5know, it's not a breakpoint in history if Iran goes 6nuclear. It can be contained. It doesn't mean that we've7lost our 30-year war with Iran. And he went on in this 8vein, perfectly logical, but it doesn't seem to correspond9to the way you and many of your Arab allies in the Gulf 10see this problem.11 MR. OTAIBA: Again, countries in the region view12this Iran threat very differently. I can only speak for 13the UAE. But talk of containment and deterrence really 14concerns me and makes me very nervous. Why should I be 15led to believe that deterrence or containment will work?16 Iran doesn't have a nuclear power now, but we're17unable to contain them and their behavior in the region. 18What makes me think that once they have a nuclear program 19we're going to be more successful in containing? Can we 20contain Iranian influence with Hamas, Hezbollah in Iraqi 21elections? Again, this is without a nuclear weapon.22 Let me ask you a question, Jeff, because you 1 251know this subject very well. Our efforts on the peace 2process, how are they going to be affected if Iranian -- 3if Iran has a nuclear weapon?4 MR. GOLDBERG: But let me ask you a question -- 5 (Laughter)6 MR. GOLDBERG: -- and follow it up with another 7question.8 (Laughter)9 MR. GOLDBERG: No, no, no, this is a key 10question and I'm just trying to probe. You talk about you11have big strategic meetings with high administration 12officials, and you're perfectly in concert, but it sounds 13like on some issues you're actually not. And by way of 14answering your question very indirectly, I will ask you 15the following, which is this. That was a very long 16sentence by the way.17 The Obama administration argues for linkage, 18they argue that it will be easier to deal with Iran if 19there is progress made on the peace process between Israel20and the Palestinians. Many Israelis and many Sunni Arabs,21moderates, argue back to the Obama administration the 22opposite, that there is linkage, but the linkage runs the 1 261other way. Until you neutralize Hezbollah and Hamas, 2which are both Iranian proxies, more or less, until you 3neutralize the threat of a rising Iran, that you're not 4going to make progress on the peace process.5 Right now you have a Palestinian polity that is 6divided between a moderate, pro-western group and the West7Bank and a group in Gaza that leans toward Iran. If you 8neutralize Iran, then maybe there is progress to be made. 9So I'm -- and I don't know the answer to your question, 10but this is what I hear from the region as opposed to what11I hear from the administration. Which way does the 12linkage run?13 MR. OTAIBA: For us, we believe that progress on14the peace process will ultimately lead to a better 15landscape for dealing with Iran. Once you, not achieve 16but let's say, get close to a Palestinian state, Hamas and17Hezbollah's reason to exist is a resistance movement. 18They are there because they want a Palestinian state.19 You take their argument away from them once you 20create a Palestinian state. And there are leaders in the 21region who are supporting both of these movements, who 22have told us privately, I will no longer be in a position 1 271to support Hamas if there is a Palestinian state.2 MR. GOLDBERG: But with all due respect, Hamas 3and Hezbollah don't necessarily want a Palestinian state 4on the West Bank and Gaza, they want a Palestinian state 5in lieu of Israel. So wouldn't that, doesn't that change 6the dynamic a little bit? The closer moderates come to 7achieving a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza, 8the more frightened and the more active the radicals 9become.10 MR. OTAIBA: Well, that empowers our argument. 11Once there is a Palestinian state, we can pressure leaders12who are supporting Hamas and Hezbollah, be it in various 13countries, that you no longer need to do this. And there 14is no way -- we all recognize that Israel is always going 15to exist. We always -- we recognize that U.S. is always 16going to support Israel; these are facts of life, we're 17not going to change them.18 There are few who use this as a political 19platform to gain support and recruit and breed more 20instability in the region. But the fact of life remains 21that Israel will be a country living side by side with the22Palestinians. And the more -- the quicker we can 1 281neutralize the extreme elements of Hamas and Hezbollah -- 2who, by the way, are somewhat fractured by the way -- I 3think the better it is to create a sustainable landscape 4of the countries in the region to really deal with the 5bigger problem to us, which is Iran.6 Palestine doesn't threaten anyone. I don't even7think they threaten Israel. Iran threatens the whole 8region; Iran threatens Israel and the Arab countries. And9so it's important to view the two threats in really the 10light of the priorities they represent to the countries.11 MR. GOLDBERG: Let me ask you the question this 12way. What would Israel have to do to gain the recognition13of the UAE, which of course would help the peace process? 14I mean, Barack Obama went to the Saudis last year and 15asked for some symbolic gestures on the peace process, 16giving El Al overflight, Saudi Arabia, and he came back 17empty handed. What would -- where is UAE in all of this?18 MR. OTAIBA: The minute they sign a peace deal 19with the Palestinians, the UAE and many countries in the 20region will sign an agreement recognizing Israel that same21day. Now, people ask me what kind of peace deal. And I 22-- my response is, it's not up to me to decide, that's up 1 291for the Palestinians. I cannot be more Palestinian than 2the Palestinians. If they are willing to agree to 3whatever Israel offers, then we are willing to recognize 4it; it's that simple - the minute they make an agreement.5 And that's not the only piece, I think the UAE 6plays a part, but there is also something out there called7the Arab Peace Initiative, which says all 22 Arab 8countries will recognize Israel, the minute Israel agrees 9to the 1967 borders. So it's not just the UAE. I think 10there is an opportunity there for Israel to establish 11relationship with 22 countries. King Abdullah always 12tells us that, you know, more countries recognize North 13Korea than they do Israel.14 So this is -- he calls it the 57-state solution.15You will gain relationship -- diplomatic relations with 16Israel with 57 different countries the minute you sign a 17peace deal with Palestine. And if you don't think that is18a priority to them, and if you don't think that will 19actually enhance your ability to deal with Iran, then I 20think we're looking at the issue backwards.21 MR. GOLDBERG: Come back to Iran for a minute, 22and in the particular UAE context because you introduced 1 301here a fairly extraordinary concept. When people who 2follow foreign policy hear the expression "existential 3threat," we automatically assume that we're talking about 4the existential threat posed by Iran to Israel. But 5you're talking about an existential threat posed to an 6Arab country. Tell me, how does it play out?7 Let's assume, from your perspective, the worst, 8that Iran reaches nuclear breakout capacity in some sort 9of way that everybody understands, whether it's through 10the most dramatic way, a test, or that all the world's 11intelligence agencies agree, now, Iran is a nuclear power.12How does that -- what happens the next day in the UAE?13 MR. OTAIBA: I think in the region -- let's 14start with the region. I think what the first thing you 15will do is you will see a series of nuclear programs being16instigated by various countries. And most likely 17candidates are going to be Egypt, Syria, Turkey, and Saudi.18 MR. GOLDBERG: Now, you have a peaceful nuclear 19program.20 MR. OTAIBA: We have a very peaceful nuclear 21program.22 MR. GOLDBERG: Would you every consider flipping 1 311that to a military program?2 MR. OTAIBA: Absolutely not. Absolutely not. 3In fact, we've gone to great lengths in our nuclear 4program and in the 123 Agreement with the United States to5prove and commit to everyone that this is purely for 6energy production needs, and it's the only nuclear program7in the World that is within its, both policy, its nuclear 8law, and our 123 Agreement have voluntarily forgone the 9right to enrich uranium or reprocess plutonium. And those10are the only two mechanisms to really convert a civil 11nuclear program into a military nuclear program.12 We've said, to prove to the world that we have 13no intention we're willing to do away with it in exchange 14for a fuel cycle from international standards. So the UAE15is seeking energy. Our energies actually forecast -- our 16energy demand is forecasted to double by the year 2020. 17And short of the energy supplies that we have, we had to 18go for nuclear energy, so that's the reason why we 19embarked on that program. But I think the other countries20will like the ambiguity of having a civil program that may21or may not eventually go into a nuclear power -- 22 MR. GOLDBERG: So you're talking about the 1 321potential, the greatest explosion in nuclear proliferation2in history in the world's most volatile region.3 MR. OTAIBA: Absolutely.4 MR. GOLDBERG: That's the day after.5 MR. OTAIBA: Absolutely.6 MR. GOLDBERG: Let me come back to this one 7question, do you think President Obama gets that?8 MR. OTAIBA: I do, I really do.9 MR. GOLDBERG: You do.10 MR. OTAIBA: I really do. But to be honest, I 11think President Obama has inherited the worst hand any 12president in the United States has inherited in recent 13history.14 (Applause)15 MR. OTAIBA: So I am not -- 16 MR. GOLDBERG: Go back and tell, give a couple 17of reasons.18 MR. OTAIBA: I like the people in the back 19because it seems like they're the only ones listening -- 20 MR. GOLDBERG: Yeah, yeah, yeah.21 (Laughter)22 MR. GOLDBERG: No they're -- no, it's not -- no, 1 331it's that they're all from Abu Dhabi. You don't 2understand that, they've been flown in from Abu Dhabi, 3special, for this lunch.4 MR. OTAIBA: Now, I think President Obama has 5inherited two very difficult campaigns in Afghanistan and 6Iraq. He has inherited the worst financial crisis since 71929. He is now dealing with what seems to be an 8unfixable oil spill, not just environmentally, but 9economically, from an energy standpoint. So President 10Obama has his hands full.11 Do I think he recognize the threat from Iran? 12Yes, I do. Do I think he has very limited options and not13necessarily a lot of ability to fix it? Yes. I think 14President Obama is just constrained with the lack of 15resources and tools at his disposal. And if he's heard 16anything from the Arab leaders that he talks to, most of 17them, and I'm fairly sure that King Abdullah when he was 18here mentioned the same thing.19 For him to really make progress on the Iran 20issue and to deal with extremism and to deal with 21terrorism in the region, to deal with radicalized home-22grown terrorism in the U.S., you need to address the peace 1 341process. That is the one core issue everyone tends to 2blame, and that's what the people hang all their problems 3on.4 Well, the Palestinians are, you know, they are 5-- they don't have a country, they are abused, they are 6oppressed, and the U.S. always sides with Israel. So the 7sooner U.S. appears to be objective and impartial and 8create a Palestinian state, we take that argument away 9from everyone, and that is in everyone's best interest.10 MR. GOLDBERG: Why would that stop Iran from 11developing a nuclear weapon?12 MR. OTAIBA: It won't stop. It will get you all13the Arab countries more aligned on containing Iran because14now they use Palestine as an excuse, and the Palestine 15issue is a deep political problem. And I'm not saying 16it's only the U.S.' fault, I'm saying it is as much Israel17and Palestine's fault for not making any progress on it 18themselves. But lack of their kind of commitment, the U.S.19needs to step in and say, you need to do this. And you 20need to do this for your sake, for our sake, and for the 21region's sake.22 MR. GOLDBERG: Let me -- we're going to go to 1 351questions in a couple of minutes, but let me just ask one 2final question, which is a sort of refinement of the would3you support an American military action against Iran. 4Would you support an Israeli military action against Iran?5Because you have for the first time in history, there is a6hopeful kind of moment here buried under this sort of 7apocalyptic moment, which is that you have the interests 8of Arab moderate states and Israel aligning, vis-à-vis 9Iran in a way that they've never aligned before.10 That's a problem because you haven't seen -- you11would think that that would cause some progress in the 12peace process and it hasn't, but you have this natural 13alignment. So the question is, would you support, 14secretly or not secretly, an Israeli strike on an Iranian 15nuclear program -- 16 (Laughter)17 MR. OTAIBA: I'm glad we're finishing off with a18light question.19 (Laughter)20 MR. GOLDBERG: Yeah.21 MR. OTAIBA: Now, let me answer it this way. 22Iran -- a military attack on Iran by whomever would be a 1 361disaster. But Iran with a nuclear weapon would be a 2bigger disaster.3 MR. GOLDBERG: I think that was a yes, but I'm 4not sure. But I'm not sure.5 (Laughter)6 MR. GOLDBERG: Why don't we go to questions 7because I'm sure there is a lot of things that we haven't 8covered. There is only a mike here, so maybe what you can9do is just stand up and scream and identify yourself and 10then scream.11 MR. DEPP: John Depp (phonetic) (off mike) 12California. Thank you. You're an excellent 13representative -- 14 SPEAKER: We can't hear.15 SPEAKER: We can't hear.16 MR. GOLDBERG: I'm going to repeat the question.17 MR. DEPP: Two questions, maybe we're going to 18see battery-powered cars (off mike) maybe the natural oil 19is not going to keep increasing like everybody says. Is 20your country thinking about maybe you should be selling 21more oil rather than less because it's going to be worth 22less in --(off mike)? 1 371 MR. OTAIBA: That's a great question and thank 2you for the setup. That's good.3 MR. GOLDBERG: Could you come on to the -- 4repeat the question, so they could -- the question -- 5 MR. OTAIBA: I'm only good at answering.6 MR. GOLDBERG: The question was, if I understand7it correctly, that with the increase in -- 8 MR. DEPP: If we go to electric cars -- 9 MR. GOLDBERG: If we go to electric cars, oil is10not going to be worth as much, so why aren't you pumping 11more?12 MR. OTAIBA: The UAE -- 13 MR. GOLDBERG: That's a very optimistic question.14 MR. OTAIBA: I go back to my earlier point and 15that is the UAE knows that the oil and gas resources we 16own are actually finite, and depending on which assessment17you read, it's going to run out one day or another. What 18the UAE has done, and this is actually one of the things 19we're very proud of, is we have per capita, or per 20country, we have invested or allocated more money into R&D21for clean energy than any country in the world.22 We've committed $15 billion in the next 5 years 1 381to basically either acquire our clean energy companies or 2invest in R&D. And anyone who has heard of a company 3called Masdar, that's kind of the 800-pound gorilla on the4clean air and the clean energy sector, and our view is in 5the 5 or 10 years Masdar will be one of the world's 6largest clean energy enterprises.7 So we're working very hard. In fact, our policy8is to -- we've mandated our governments to come up with a 9solution where by 2030 at least 7 percent of our energy 10generation comes from renewable energy, so that's a goal 11we've set for ourselves.12 The other part of the answer I'd like to mention13is, this is a very not well-known fact. The UAE produces 14about two-and-a-half million barrels of oil a day, not a 15single drop of it gets exported west. None of it goes to 16the U.S., Europe, anywhere west. All of our oil goes to 17Japan, Korea, and various other countries in Asia.18 We take the revenues that we make from our oil 19sales east, and we invest it all around the world, much of20it comes into the U.S. So the U.S. is actually a 21beneficiary of our oil revenues that we sell to east. In 22fact, the U.S. -- the UAE has, I can't mention the 1 391numbers, but a significant amount of investment in the U.S.2In the last year alone, despite the financial crisis, UAE 3entities put at least $10 billion of investment into the 4U.S. in various projects.5 One of them is a chip manufacturing facility in 6upstate New York that we are doing in conjunction with a 7company called AMD, and another $4.5 billion investment in8CityCenter in Las Vegas with MGM, so that money went into 9the U.S. about last year when the economy was very, very 10difficult.11 MR. GOLDBERG: And you're also giving $10 12billion to the Aspen Institute.13 (Laughter)14 MR. OTAIBA: Walter just raised his hand, yeah.15 MR. GOLDBERG: And ticking up 10 million 16subscriptions to the Atlantic, by the way. Yes.17 MS. HINCH: Marian Hinch (phonetic). I was 18wondering, you know, we hear in the West a lot about the 19-- (off mike). And we're told (off mike) will galvanize 20against anyone who attack Iran, that any (off mike) or the21protestors in Iran will be squeezed because of an attack 22on Iran. Your (off mike) if someone -- I mean, it looks 1 401like (off mike) the savior of (off mike).2 MR. OTAIBA: I think it's a cost-benefit 3analysis. We have -- 4 MR. GOLDBERG: Did everybody hear the question?5 SPEAKERS: No.6 MR. GOLDBERG: The question has to do with the 7Arab -- with the so-called Arab Street. There is a common8perception that any attack on Iran would be received very 9negatively by the Arab Street. What she is pointing out 10is that, what the ambassador is saying somewhat 11contradicts that perception in that there might be many 12Arabs who are pleased with some sort of military action 13against Iran.14 MR. OTAIBA: Again, it's a cost-benefit 15analysis. And I think despite the large amount of trade 16we do with Iran, which is close to $12 billion, not as 17much as what we do with the U.S., there will be 18consequences and there will be a backlash and there will 19be problems in people protesting and rioting and very 20unhappy with that there is a outside force attacking a 21Muslim country. That is going to happen no matter what.22 But if you're asking me, am I willing to live 1 411with that versus living with a nuclear Iran, my answer is 2still the same. We cannot live with a nuclear Iran. I am3willing to absorb what takes place at the expense of the 4security of the UAE.5 MR. GOLDBERG: Are there any questions from the 6Abu Dhabi delegation back there? Anybody have anything? 7Why don't you come up here and ask your question? While 8you're doing that, let me call on you back there real 9quick. Yeah.10 MS. HINCH: What is your assessment (off mike) 11what's happening in (off mike) with the youth and all 12these groups that were against the elections, what is 13truly happening now?14 MR. OTAIBA: I think this was -- the question 15was my assessment on what's taking place in Iran in terms 16of the resistance of the Green Movement and opposition 17that we saw in the -- since the last elections in June. 18And I was very amazed to see the amount of people who are 19willing to put their lives in danger by going out on the 20street, protesting and really expressing themselves 21against a regime that obviously had no qualms about 22oppressing them, putting them in jail, beating them, 1 421torturing them, raping them. They knew this was going to 2happen. They knew this was a risk the minute they stepped3down on the street. And millions of people still did it. 4To me, that was very admirable.5 Now, the status of it today. I was in the UAE 26months ago and I asked for a intel briefing on exactly 7that, on the status of the Green Movement and the internal8political situation. And the first answer I got from my 9briefer was, the Green Movement is officially dead. It 10has absolutely no chance of being revived, people are 11staying in their homes, it has been officially suppressed.12So it's sad to say.13 But again, the regime was put in a corner after 14the elections. And what we saw is the mindset of the 15regime and what they're willing to do to preserve 16themselves. And this is a regime that is all about 17self-preservation and they're not reluctant to put their 18own people in danger or to put them in jail.19 And this is exactly -- I go back to your earlier20question, this is why a regime of that nature, with 21nuclear weapons, is simply unacceptable for us to live 22with. It's just not -- the United States may be able to 1 431live with it, we can't.2 MS. HINCH: But they could have been beneficial 3for -- (off mike).4 MR. OTAIBA: It's hard to say. That's -- 5 SPEAKER: Repeat the -- 6 MR. GOLDBERG: The question was, would it have 7been beneficial for the Green Movement if the U.S. had 8been more supportive or outspoken in its support?9 MR. OTAIBA: It's hard to speculate, but I think10the first thing the regime would have done if U.S. landed 11-- voiced its support publicly or privately was they were 12going to basically criticize the movement as being a 13western-backed movement. It no longer became an internal 14movement against the government, it became the west's idea15or policy of really removing the government, and that 16would have immediately discredited the movement. So it 17was a tough decision.18 I don't know if -- by standing -- by going to 19their support you would have helped them. There is a 20chance you may have actually hurt them as well, not that 21the result has been any different, but for better or 22worse, unfortunately, what we saw as an opportunity is no 1 441longer there.2 MR. GOLDBERG: I think we have time for two more3questions. There is -- yes, ma'am.4 SPEAKER: (Off mike.)5 MR. GOLDBERG: Let me repeat that. The question6is, isn't it ironic that Israel might be, this is her word7not mine, the savior of the Arabs -- never words that have8come out of my mouth before -- for dealing in some sort of9militant way with the Iranian program when they -- when 10Israel will be condemned afterward, I think, is what 11you're saying, for taking that -- condemned publicly for 12taking that same action.13 MR. OTAIBA: Israel is already being condemned 14for everything they do anyway. I don't think it's fair, 15absolutely not.16 SPEAKER: (Off mike.)17 MR. OTAIBA: I think Israeli behavior drives a 18lot of reaction to Israel and to a lot of comments made by19Israel. I hope that today's meeting with the president 20ends up being more successful. And I hope that the peace 21process gets back on track, because that's the only way 22Israel will put itself in a position where it's not 1 451constantly attacked.2 Iran issue aside, Israel is, you know, lives in 3a very difficult neighborhood. And like ourselves, you 4know, we deal with the same threats. But I think it's 5important for Israel to recognize what its priorities are 6and what is in its best interests. And what is in best 7interests, I think, is a good relationship with the U.S. 8and eventually achieving a solution with the Palestinians 9so that the countries in the region can recognize it.10 MR. GOLDBERG: And there was back there.11 SPEAKER: (Off mike) do you think the Russians 12would step in if Israel attacks Iran (off mike) Russians 13have always wanted (off mike).14 MR. OTAIBA: I don't know. It's a difficult 15question to speculate on also -- 16 MR. GOLDBERG: That's above his pay grade. 17That's above his pay grade. There was a question all the 18way -- 19 MR. OTAIBA: I haven't seen anything to lead me 20to believe that Russia will take a very more proactive -- 21 SPEAKER: (Off mike.)22 MR. GOLDBERG: All right. Let me just go, there 1 461is one question in the back. He's been waiting patiently,2let me go there.3 MR. OTAIBA: Yes.4 SPEAKER: (Off mike) of the many things that you5can (off mike) when you transform your economy to (off 6mike) can you talk a little bit more about that?7 MR. OTAIBA: Can you repeat the question, 8because I didn't -- 9 MR. GOLDBERG: The question was, why is clean 10energy the focus of your innovation economy?11 MR. OTAIBA: Because, like I said, you know, oil12is going to run out one day, and we won't have any gas or 13oil or crude to power up our power plants. You know, 14despite the financial crisis, our economy is still going 15to grow at a 3 percent -- 3 to 4 percent growth rate, and 16all our projects, and I know the media has debated which 17projects are continuing and which projects are cancelled, 18I can safely assure you that all the government-backed 19projects, all the infrastructure projects, the 20universities, the rail roads, the nuclear program, Masdar 21City these are, you know, very, very large price tag 22projects and they're all going on as planned. 1 471 Now, not only does that require a lot of money, 2but it also requires a lot of energy. And, like I said, 3the energy forecast for the UAE is set to double by the 4year 2020. And unless we start exploiting, you know, 5nuclear power, renewable power, we're not going to stand a6chance to make -- to really enact our economic development7policies. So it's a way of providing a tool to allow us 8to continue to grow the way we're planning to grow.9 MR. GOLDBERG: This has been great. Thank you 10very, very much for coming. And thank you, Mr. Ambassador11-- 12 (Applause)13 MR. GOLDBERG: Thank you very much -- 14 MR. OTAIBA: Let me --15 MR. GOLDBERG: Oh, wait.16 MR. OTAIBA: Let me just -- one brief -- 17 MR. GOLDBERG: He wants to say one more thing.18 MR. OTAIBA: And it's not about the UAE. I 19would be remiss to not mention the wonderful hospitality 20that has been shown to us here by the Aspen Institute, by 21Walter and by Tony. So Tony, first, can you stand up, so 22I can embarrass you slightly? 1 481 (Applause)2 MR. OTAIBA: And more importantly, Tony has 3worked tirelessly and very gracefully shepherded the first4Aspen UAE initiative that will be launched in Abu Dhabi in5October 4th, and we're bringing the Ideas Festival to the 6UAE. And the subject is going to be something that we 7both can relate to, "Creating a culture of innovation 8entrepreneurship."9 So invitations will be going out. The weather 10in Abu Dhabi in October is kind of like Aspen in July. So11we hope you can join us and come see our country. Thank 12you very much.13 MR. GOLDBERG: Thank you very much.14 (Applause)15 * * * * *

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