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1 2 3 4 5 THE ASPEN INSTITUTE 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 ASPEN IDEAS FESTIVAL 20 21 22 23 24 YOUSEF AL OTAIBA 25 26 27 28 1 2
1LIST OF PARTICIPANTS 2 3 4 ELLIOT GERSON 5 Executive Vice President of Policy and Public 6 Programs, International Partnerships 7 8 JEFFREY GOLDBERG 9 National correspondent, The Atlantic 10 Moderator 11 12 YOUSEF AL OTAIBA 13 United Arab Emirates Ambassador to the United States 14 and Mexico 15 16 1 3
1 P R O C E E D I N G S
2 MR. GERSON: Ladies and gentlemen, if I could
3have your attention, please. Ladies and gentlemen, given
4the great interest in the conversation we're about to
5participate in, I'd like to get started. I know some of
6you are still getting food, but I really don't want to
7take more time. So I'd like now -- I'm Elliot Gerson, and
8it's my great pleasure to introduce Jeff Goldberg.
9 Jeff needs no introduction, really, of course, a
10national correspondent for the Atlantic. I don't think
11there is a journalist in the country who is more respected
12on topics relating to the Middle East. He is a polymath.
13He writes about many other things as well. But what he
14says about the Middle East is carefully observed.
15 He's also been a co-conspirator in every sense
16with the Aspen Institute in planning all aspects of the
17Ideas Festival. So he has become a great friend of all of
18ours, and he invariably is chosen by all of you as the
19festival's favorite moderator. I will give it over to
20Jeff, who will introduce our distinguished speaker. Jeff.
21 MR. GOLDBERG: Wow, that was really nice. I
22should just go home now. Thank you, Elliot. 1 4
1 Can everybody hear, in the back, in the front? Thank
2you for coming out today. This is going to be a very
3interesting conversation with Israel's ambassador to the
4United States.
5 (Laughter)
6 MR. GOLDBERG: Oh, wait, that's the next one,
7I'm sorry. No, I always --
8 SPEAKER: That's okay.
9 MR. GOLDBERG: I'm always getting them confused,
10it's unbelievable. Actually, our guest today is most
11often confused with the mayor of Washington. People often
12are coming up to him complaining about garbage collection.
13He does have an uncanny appearance to Adrian Fenty. But
14this is in fact the ambassador from the United Arab
15Emirates, Yousef Al Otaiba, who is obviously a good friend
16of the Aspen Institute, and I think we'll hear a little
17bit about that.
18 I won't go into the lengthy bio. He is a very
19accomplished young man. He is -- for many years, I think
20before you came to Washington, you were foreign policy
21advisor or national security advisor to the Crown Prince
22of Abu Dhabi. He is someone I've gotten to know quite 1 5
1well in Washington. He is a rather overenthusiastic
2Georgetown basketball fan. But I don't --
3 MR. OTAIBA: Especially when they're good.
4 MR. GOLDBERG: Especially when they're good. He
5is a fly-by-night one. But we're going to jump right into
6this in this kind of odds. I feel like we're like some
7sort of multi-ethnic folk duo, sitting in these chairs, I
8guess.
9 (Laughter)
10 MR. GOLDBERG: -- we're going to --
11 MR. OTAIBA: Someone is going to bring out a
12band --
13 MR. GOLDBERG: Yeah, no, I'm afraid like bands
14were playing, it's going to breakout in this setting. But
15it's okay, because Aspen is about bringing people together.
16 Let me -- I thought we would start with
17something rather basic before we move into some of the
18hot-button issues of the day, and that is -- there is a
19kind of confusion sometimes about what exactly is the
20United Arab Emirates. How was it formed, and how many
21Emirates are there, and how they are governed, and how the
22UAE is different from Saudi Arabia, say. And I was 1 6
1wondering if you could in a minute and a half give us the
2entire history of your country.
3 (Laughter)
4 MR. OTAIBA: Absolutely. You've given me way
5too much time.
6 MR. GOLDBERG: Yeah. It's a new country.
7 MR. OTAIBA: First, let me start off by thanking
8everyone for coming. Thank you, Jeff, for organizing this.
9 I thought I was coming here really to -- I
10didn't know anything about this interview. I was actually
11looking for a place that's showing the World Cup, so they
12said go to Meadows Restaurant, you get -- they're showing
13the World Cup and you get free lunch. So I was under -- I
14was led here under false pretenses.
15 MR. GOLDBERG: Yeah.
16 MR. OTAIBA: Let me tell you a little bit about
17the UAE. Basically, it's small federation. It's about
18the size of the state of Maine. I'll try to make
19analogies to U.S., so people can understand. It's about
20the size of the state of Maine, composed of about seven
21different emirates, which until 1971 were independent.
22 In 1971, Sheikh Zayid, our late president, had 1 7
1the idea of uniting them because he found that a stronger
2federation would be a much more beneficial entity than
3having small -- seven small weaker sheikhdoms. So in 1971
4we merged and formed the United Arab Emirates, and it is
5the only successful federation in the Middle East until
6today.
7 Not unlike the United States, we have a federal
8system and a local system of government, kind of like the
9state system and the federal system here in the U.S.
10Foreign policy, security, energy policy are always driven
11at the federal level, but economy, leasing and various
12civilian and municipal events are usually driven by the
13local level. So it's still a kind of a harmony between
14the two systems of government, federal and local. But
15there is a lot, I think, that the UAE can be proud of.
16 One, for example, we have one of the most
17advanced compositions of women's rights and movements of
18women's rights. Today, in the UAE, college enrollment in
19all of our universities is over 74 percent female, and our
20public workforce, 64 percent of the public workforce in
21the UAE are women.
22 And I -- there is something that -- it's usually 1 8
1not well understood in the Middle East, but I think in UAE
2it's kind of leading the way and it's something that we're
3very proud of, and I think more people need to know about
4them. I can happily go into more, but I'll prefer if we
5sort of --
6 MR. GOLDBERG: No, that was the easy question;
7now, let me start with the hard ones. The -- this isn't
8actually a hard one, but I do want you to come back to
9this. Saudi Arabia is the 800-pound gorilla of the
10Arabian Peninsula. Talk about this in very specific ways.
11How are you different than Saudi Arabia? And talk about
12it in the application of Islam, talk about it in terms of
13women, talk about it in terms of your positions on various
14issues, including the peace process.
15 MR. OTAIBA: Well, as the 800-pound gorilla in
16the region, that is obviously what most people turn to and
17use that as a benchmark. In Saudi Arabia, it's a very,
18very different system of government and society is far
19more influenced by religious issues and religious thought.
20It is far less secular than most countries in the region.
21 And unfortunately, we usually get -- we become
22deemed guilty by association, and people have a kind of 1 9
1monolithic view of the region. People tend to think in
2the entire Middle East women cannot drive, or in the
3entire Middle East women must cover up. And these are
4absolutely not true. In Saudi Arabia there is a much
5stronger influence of religious issues, and it relates
6only to Saudi Arabia. I can't sit here and criticize or
7critique each country's policies, but the UAE is very
8different.
9 The UAE, I believe, is by far the most moderate,
10liberal and modern society in the Middle East. And anyone
11who has been there can attest to what the things the UAE
12are doing are far more advanced than many of the countries
13in the region.
14 Today, as an oil producer, for example -- and
15I'll use this as a -- just as a anecdote -- we produce
16about two-and-a-half million barrels of oil per day. Now,
17most oil-producing countries depend largely on their
18revenues from oil and gas sector, but in the UAE we've
19tried very hard and continue to try to diversify our
20economy.
21 And our GDP percentage from oil and gas sector
22is actually below 35 percent, 65 percent of our GDP is 1 10
1from non-oil and gas, and the desire and the policy is to
2try to drive that number down even lower. And the idea
3is, we recognize oil as a finite resource, it is not going
4to last forever. And building an economy that doesn't
5depend on a resource that will run out in 100 or 200 years
6is where we see ourselves.
7 MR. GOLDBERG: But isn't it true that, we saw it
8in the recent past, the near collapse of Dubai's economy.
9Talk about that in the context of what you just said. And
10compare and contrast, if you will, Abu Dhabi and Dubai,
11and explain the roles they play in the federation.
12 MR. OTAIBA: In very short analogy, I would say
13Abu Dhabi is more like Washington D.C. It is the base of
14government; it is more conservative; it is more
15traditional, and that's where really all the money is.
16 Dubai is more like New York City. It's more
17vibrant, fast-paced, commercial, corporate, lots of
18tourism. The reason, I think, Dubai is suffering
19economically is not unlike the reason the U.S. is
20suffering economically right now. Dubai put all their
21eggs in one basket, and that basket was real estate. And
22when the real estate market crashed, a lot of their 1 11
1economy crashed.
2 Now, what we've seen, I think, in the economic
3crisis is that no one is immune. And the countries that
4became most affected are the countries that were most
5globalized. So you pay a higher price when your economy
6is interdependent with the rest of the worlds.
7 I believe Dubai is going to have some challenges
8that they're going to continue to deal with for the next
9few years. But fundamentally, Dubai is still going to be
10a successful city because people still like the lifestyle
11there, people enjoy living there. It's a very high level
12of infrastructure. Corporations all over the world find
13it to be a very good place to base their business in the
14region because it's convenient to hop and cover the region
15from there. And it is very liberal, it's very tolerant.
16 In fact, I relate back to the Saudi question, we
17have a large, large number of Saudis who actually have
18moved their families to Dubai or Abu Dhabi. They will
19continue to work in Saudi and come to the UAE on weekends,
20why? Because their families enjoy a different lifestyle,
21because their wives can drive their kids to school, and
22they can go to the shopping center; they can't do these 1 12
1things in Saudi Arabia. So Dubai has attracted not people
2-- not only people from the West and from corporate world
3but also people from the region.
4 MR. GOLDBERG: Is the UAE a friend of the United
5States?
6 MR. OTAIBA: Absolutely not, no.
7 (Laughter)
8 MR. GOLDBERG: You could all Twitter -- you
9could all tweet that right now.
10 (Laughter)
11 MR. OTAIBA: I think, in light of what's going
12on in the region, and I can't speak for the
13administration, but I don't believe there is another more
14reliable partner and ally in the region than the United
15Arab Emirates. Let me give you a few numbers.
16 The UAE for the last 4 years has been the U.S.'
17largest export market; larger than Saudi, Egypt, and
18Israel. The U.S. has approximately 2,000 military folks
19stationed in the UAE, doing various types of operations in
20support of Iraq and Afghanistan. UAE is the single
21largest military -- purchaser of military equipment from
22the United States. We are in the range of about $20 1 13
1billion in the last 2 years of just U.S. military
2equipment purchases alone. And we have about another $20
3billion in the pipeline over the next 2 years.
4 Let me turn things around and let me just ask a
5question to the audience. Is anybody here aware, have any
6idea, how many Middle Eastern countries are actually
7serving in Afghanistan right now or has troops in
8Afghanistan? This is actually quite conflicting because
9it's both a source of pride and a source of shame at the
10same time.
11 The UAE has been in Afghanistan since 2002.
12It's a source of pride for me to be there because, you
13know, I think we're doing the right thing and we're
14fighting side by side with the Americans and everyone
15else. But it's very embarrassing to know that you're the
16-- we're the only Arab country in Afghanistan.
17 I think Afghanistan is not America's issue;
18Afghanistan is the world's issue, and if we don't all sort
19of collaborate --
20 (Applause)
21 MR. GERSON: The guys outside are listening,
22they're listening, they're listening. 1 14
1 MR. GOLDBERG: The people outside are more --
2yeah, yeah, yeah, there are apparently people behind us
3now.
4 (Laughter)
5 MR. OTAIBA: If we don't stabilize Afghanistan,
6and if we don't work with the government of Afghanistan,
7we all risk, not just the U.S., we all risk another type
8of 9/11. And if anyone believes that only the U.S. is
9target of these kinds of operations, you'll be sadly
10mistaken. I can tell you for a fact that we have foiled
11at least 25 different operations that are targeting the
12UAE in the last 10 years. So the U.S. is not the only
13target, we are just as much of a target. And if we don't
14do it, and we if we don't cooperate and help the
15Afghanistan, we will be at the end of these operations
16just like you.
17 MR. GOLDBERG: You talk about your closeness to
18the United States, but there is a criticism within the
19Obama administration and with the Bush administration
20previously that the UAE is playing a bit of a double game
21when it comes to doing business with Iran. There are
22widespread feeling in the Treasury Department and other 1 15
1places that UAE is, let's say, less than religiously
2devoted to a sanctions regime that the U.S., both
3administrations, Bush and Obama, want to see imposed on
4Iran. Can you talk about that?
5 MR. OTAIBA: Sure.
6 MR. GOLDBERG: Because it seems to be a big --
7when I talk to people in government about the UAE, they
8say, yes, it's an ally, but.
9 MR. OTAIBA: UAE and Iran have been traditional,
10economic, and regional neighbors and partners for hundreds
11and thousands of years. There is nothing that is going to
12say, no matter what kind of sanctions, the UAE must
13physically move from Iran. It's not like we just bought a
14house and we don't like it, we can move. We are going to
15be Iran's neighbors whether we like it or not.
16 That said, we have some major, major issues of
17divergence with Iran. And it's not just the sanctions,
18and it's not just U.S. policy. Iran occupies three of
19UAE's islands since 1971. That is our biggest problem
20with them at this moment. And they refuse to go to any
21arbitration or the ICJ. So we have, bilaterally, a very
22big problem with them on that level. 1 16
1 Second, we have some major concerns with their
2nuclear program. And for those of you who don't know, the
3reactor in Bushehr is closer to most capitals in the Gulf
4than it is to Tehran, and I'm pretty sure that's not an
5accident. So from a safety and security standpoint we
6have some major issues and concerns with their nuclear
7program, not only their transparency or the ultimate
8objective of what we think their nuclear program is.
9 And last but not least, we are very concerned
10with Iran's behavior in the region. We see very strong
11Iranian influence in Iraq, in Lebanon, in Gaza, in Yemen,
12and in parts in Afghanistan. So without the first two
13issues, without the islands issue or the nuclear issue,
14Iran's behavior is problematic. And in the national
15interest of the UAE, Iranian influence must be contained.
16Now, we've advocated very, very strongly that the UN
17sanctions be as tough and as direct and as strong as
18possible, and hope --
19 MR. GOLDBERG: The way you enforce compliance
20within the UAE business --
21 MR. OTAIBA: Absolutely. On the UN sanctions,
22we will comply just like we have of the past three, to a 1 17
1T. There is not going to be an ounce of doubt whether the
2UAE will abide by any UN sanctions, resolutions, whether
3it's on Iran or anyone else.
4 MR. GOLDBERG: I asked you before if UAE were
5friend of America, but let me reserve it. Is America
6friend to UAE? And the reason I ask this is two-fold;
7one, the Dubai Ports World controversy in which, among
8other people, the current secretary of State was very
9involved in arguing against giving that business to UAE as
10a senator from New York. And two, do you believe that
11America has the UAE's back when it comes to Iran? Deal
12with the first one first and the second one second, or the
13second one first and the first one second.
14 (Laughter)
15 MR. GOLDBERG: -- freedom of choice.
16 MR. OTAIBA: Let me start by the first. I've
17been working in government now for about 10 years. And
18the portfolio that has taken up most of my time, hands
19down, is the U.S.-UAE portfolio. Our cooperation with the
20U.S. has increased dramatically in every sector possible
21in the past 10 years.
22 If you look at the graph, if we graph it, it has 1 18
1been in constant upward trend; whether it's economical,
2political, social, health care, education, trade,
3everything has been increasing over the last 10 years. So
4if you take the 10-year graph, we're doing quite well. If
5you take the blip on the graph, which was Dubai Ports
6World, then, yes, it was a very unfortunate incident.
7 MR. GOLDBERG: Can you explain the controversy
8for a minute, just in case people don't remember?
9 MR. OTAIBA: Sure. It was about 6 years ago.
10Dubai Ports World is a company that operates ports in the
11UAE and in 19 different countries, and they were on a
12major expansion move, and they bought this company called
13P&O, and it's a British company that operates some ports
14in the U.S. in six major cities.
15 So, basically, to really boil it down, this
16became a very internal political U.S. debate where the
17Democrats attacked the Republicans for allowing an Arab
18country to manage ports in the U.S. And this was
19essentially a chance for the Democrats to beat up the
20Republicans on an issue that the Republicans tend to
21usually use as their strong suit, security. And so it
22became an internal battle. I think there was really very 1 19
1little to do with the UAE.
2 I actually had a senior democratic official, and
3who shall remain nameless, tell me, look, you gave us this
4on a silver platter. If it was any other country, we
5would have done exactly the same thing. It was purely
6internal politics. We got a chance to go at the
7Republicans, and that's what we did. So the UAE was a
8collateral damage in something internal in the U.S.
9 Now, the lessons we learned is that the U.S.
10really doesn't understand the UAE -- this is 6 years ago,
11so we put a poll and we asked people. And one of the
12major questions -- and this was kind of the barometer of
13the poll for me -- was what is your overall impression of
14the UAE; favorable, unfavorable, no impression? Forty
15percent said no impression; 30 percent said favorable; 30
16percent said unfavorable.
17 So if you look at the pie graph, what I saw was
1870 percent potential for having a favorable impression of
19the UAE. And that's when we launched a public diplomacy
20program to really raise the awareness of people in the
21United States about who the UAE is, what we do, what our
22policies are. And the more we tell people, the more 1 20
1people are surprised that, hey, the UAE are pretty much
2aligned on us on almost all of the issues.
3 Now, I'll give you another example. Two weeks
4ago, I sat in a strategic dialogue, discussion with the
5United States, both Pentagon and the State Department, and
6we had a delegation mirrored at the same level from our
7side. So we went through the litany of issues; Iraq,
8Afghanistan, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran. We went
9through everything, and at the end of 2 days, there was
10nothing we disagreed on. We are aligned on every policy
11issue there is in the Middle East. I think tactics may
12differ, but in terms of overall outlook, we're always on
13the same page.
14 MR. GOLDBERG: But wait, let's just -- let me
15sharpen the second half of my question and ask you this
16point blank. Do you want the United States to stop the
17Iranian nuclear program by force?
18 MR. OTAIBA: Absolutely, absolutely. I think we
19are at risk of an Iranian nuclear program far more than
20you are at risk. You have two oceans --
21 MR. GOLDBERG: Me, Jeffrey Goldberg, or me,
22representative of the Jewish people, or me -- 1 21
1 (Laughter)
2 MR. OTAIBA: And the United States.
3 MR. GOLDBERG: The United States, okay, just
4checking.
5 MR. OTAIBA: The United States --
6 MR. GOLDBERG: I wear a lot of hats.
7 (Laughter)
8 MR. OTAIBA: -- at 7,000 miles away and with two
9oceans bordering you, an Iranian nuclear threat does not
10threaten continental United States. It may threaten your
11assets in the region, it will threaten the peace process,
12it will threaten balance of power, it will threaten
13everything else, but it will not threaten you.
14 MR. GOLDBERG: So are you suggesting that the
15leadership of the UAE is like Bibi Netanyahu, but more?
16 MR. OTAIBA: I am suggesting that I think -- and
17of every country in the region, UAE is most vulnerable to
18Iran. Our military, who has existed for the past 40
19years, wake up, dream, breathe, eat, sleep the Iranian
20threat. It's the only conventional military threat our
21military plans for, trains for, equips for, that's it,
22there is no other threat. There is no country in the 1 22
1region that parlays the threat to the UAE, it's only Iran.
2And so, yes, it is very much in our interest that Iran
3does not gain nuclear technology.
4 MR. GOLDBERG: Okay. So let's play this out a
5little bit more. George W. Bush didn't take out the
6Iranian nuclear program by force. Do you have any
7expectation at all that Barack Obama, who was elected not
8to attack another Muslim country, do you have any
9expectation at all that Barack Obama will, if sanctions
10fail, move to a more militant posture on Iran.
11 MR. OTAIBA: Yes, that's the million dollar
12question. That's --
13 MR. GOLDBERG: Right, that's why I'm asking it.
14 MR. OTAIBA: I don't think anybody knows. I
15honestly don't think --
16 MR. GOLDBERG: But take a guess.
17 (Laughter)
18 MR. OTAIBA: I believe that if it comes down to
19it, there is going to be some very serious people sitting
20in a room and drawing the line that people must respect.
21And we need to figure out and we need to be told what that
22line is - if you're willing or if you're not willing; 1 23
1because there are many countries in the region who, if
2they lack of insurance that the U.S. is willing to
3confront Iran, they will start running for cover towards
4Iran. Small, rich, vulnerable countries in the region do
5not want to be the ones who stick their finger in the big
6bully's eye, if no one is going to come to their support.
7 MR. GOLDBERG: So what you're saying, you would
8ally yourself with Iran, rather than be attacked by Iran.
9 MR. OTAIBA: The UAE is probably the last
10country that will ever do that, simply because we have a
11historical --
12 MR. GOLDBERG: Well, Israel will probably be the
13last country to ever do that.
14 (Laughter)
15 MR. OTAIBA: I think there are a lot of other
16Arab countries who you risk losing to Iran than the UAE.
17And again, I stress the point. I think whatever the U.S.
18decides to do needs to be very seriously conveyed to the
19people in the region, so they can decide which way they
20want to go.
21 MR. GOLDBERG: That's pretty drastic. Do you --
22come back to your impressions of President Obama after 18 1 24
1months or so in office, do you feel that this
2administration understands the stakes on the Iranian
3question the way you understand them? I mean, I ask this
4-- a person we both know in the administration said, you
5know, it's not a breakpoint in history if Iran goes
6nuclear. It can be contained. It doesn't mean that we've
7lost our 30-year war with Iran. And he went on in this
8vein, perfectly logical, but it doesn't seem to correspond
9to the way you and many of your Arab allies in the Gulf
10see this problem.
11 MR. OTAIBA: Again, countries in the region view
12this Iran threat very differently. I can only speak for
13the UAE. But talk of containment and deterrence really
14concerns me and makes me very nervous. Why should I be
15led to believe that deterrence or containment will work?
16 Iran doesn't have a nuclear power now, but we're
17unable to contain them and their behavior in the region.
18What makes me think that once they have a nuclear program
19we're going to be more successful in containing? Can we
20contain Iranian influence with Hamas, Hezbollah in Iraqi
21elections? Again, this is without a nuclear weapon.
22 Let me ask you a question, Jeff, because you 1 25
1know this subject very well. Our efforts on the peace
2process, how are they going to be affected if Iranian --
3if Iran has a nuclear weapon?
4 MR. GOLDBERG: But let me ask you a question --
5 (Laughter)
6 MR. GOLDBERG: -- and follow it up with another
7question.
8 (Laughter)
9 MR. GOLDBERG: No, no, no, this is a key
10question and I'm just trying to probe. You talk about you
11have big strategic meetings with high administration
12officials, and you're perfectly in concert, but it sounds
13like on some issues you're actually not. And by way of
14answering your question very indirectly, I will ask you
15the following, which is this. That was a very long
16sentence by the way.
17 The Obama administration argues for linkage,
18they argue that it will be easier to deal with Iran if
19there is progress made on the peace process between Israel
20and the Palestinians. Many Israelis and many Sunni Arabs,
21moderates, argue back to the Obama administration the
22opposite, that there is linkage, but the linkage runs the 1 26
1other way. Until you neutralize Hezbollah and Hamas,
2which are both Iranian proxies, more or less, until you
3neutralize the threat of a rising Iran, that you're not
4going to make progress on the peace process.
5 Right now you have a Palestinian polity that is
6divided between a moderate, pro-western group and the West
7Bank and a group in Gaza that leans toward Iran. If you
8neutralize Iran, then maybe there is progress to be made.
9So I'm -- and I don't know the answer to your question,
10but this is what I hear from the region as opposed to what
11I hear from the administration. Which way does the
12linkage run?
13 MR. OTAIBA: For us, we believe that progress on
14the peace process will ultimately lead to a better
15landscape for dealing with Iran. Once you, not achieve
16but let's say, get close to a Palestinian state, Hamas and
17Hezbollah's reason to exist is a resistance movement.
18They are there because they want a Palestinian state.
19 You take their argument away from them once you
20create a Palestinian state. And there are leaders in the
21region who are supporting both of these movements, who
22have told us privately, I will no longer be in a position 1 27
1to support Hamas if there is a Palestinian state.
2 MR. GOLDBERG: But with all due respect, Hamas
3and Hezbollah don't necessarily want a Palestinian state
4on the West Bank and Gaza, they want a Palestinian state
5in lieu of Israel. So wouldn't that, doesn't that change
6the dynamic a little bit? The closer moderates come to
7achieving a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza,
8the more frightened and the more active the radicals
9become.
10 MR. OTAIBA: Well, that empowers our argument.
11Once there is a Palestinian state, we can pressure leaders
12who are supporting Hamas and Hezbollah, be it in various
13countries, that you no longer need to do this. And there
14is no way -- we all recognize that Israel is always going
15to exist. We always -- we recognize that U.S. is always
16going to support Israel; these are facts of life, we're
17not going to change them.
18 There are few who use this as a political
19platform to gain support and recruit and breed more
20instability in the region. But the fact of life remains
21that Israel will be a country living side by side with the
22Palestinians. And the more -- the quicker we can 1 28
1neutralize the extreme elements of Hamas and Hezbollah --
2who, by the way, are somewhat fractured by the way -- I
3think the better it is to create a sustainable landscape
4of the countries in the region to really deal with the
5bigger problem to us, which is Iran.
6 Palestine doesn't threaten anyone. I don't even
7think they threaten Israel. Iran threatens the whole
8region; Iran threatens Israel and the Arab countries. And
9so it's important to view the two threats in really the
10light of the priorities they represent to the countries.
11 MR. GOLDBERG: Let me ask you the question this
12way. What would Israel have to do to gain the recognition
13of the UAE, which of course would help the peace process?
14I mean, Barack Obama went to the Saudis last year and
15asked for some symbolic gestures on the peace process,
16giving El Al overflight, Saudi Arabia, and he came back
17empty handed. What would -- where is UAE in all of this?
18 MR. OTAIBA: The minute they sign a peace deal
19with the Palestinians, the UAE and many countries in the
20region will sign an agreement recognizing Israel that same
21day. Now, people ask me what kind of peace deal. And I
22-- my response is, it's not up to me to decide, that's up 1 29
1for the Palestinians. I cannot be more Palestinian than
2the Palestinians. If they are willing to agree to
3whatever Israel offers, then we are willing to recognize
4it; it's that simple - the minute they make an agreement.
5 And that's not the only piece, I think the UAE
6plays a part, but there is also something out there called
7the Arab Peace Initiative, which says all 22 Arab
8countries will recognize Israel, the minute Israel agrees
9to the 1967 borders. So it's not just the UAE. I think
10there is an opportunity there for Israel to establish
11relationship with 22 countries. King Abdullah always
12tells us that, you know, more countries recognize North
13Korea than they do Israel.
14 So this is -- he calls it the 57-state solution.
15You will gain relationship -- diplomatic relations with
16Israel with 57 different countries the minute you sign a
17peace deal with Palestine. And if you don't think that is
18a priority to them, and if you don't think that will
19actually enhance your ability to deal with Iran, then I
20think we're looking at the issue backwards.
21 MR. GOLDBERG: Come back to Iran for a minute,
22and in the particular UAE context because you introduced 1 30
1here a fairly extraordinary concept. When people who
2follow foreign policy hear the expression "existential
3threat," we automatically assume that we're talking about
4the existential threat posed by Iran to Israel. But
5you're talking about an existential threat posed to an
6Arab country. Tell me, how does it play out?
7 Let's assume, from your perspective, the worst,
8that Iran reaches nuclear breakout capacity in some sort
9of way that everybody understands, whether it's through
10the most dramatic way, a test, or that all the world's
11intelligence agencies agree, now, Iran is a nuclear power.
12How does that -- what happens the next day in the UAE?
13 MR. OTAIBA: I think in the region -- let's
14start with the region. I think what the first thing you
15will do is you will see a series of nuclear programs being
16instigated by various countries. And most likely
17candidates are going to be Egypt, Syria, Turkey, and Saudi.
18 MR. GOLDBERG: Now, you have a peaceful nuclear
19program.
20 MR. OTAIBA: We have a very peaceful nuclear
21program.
22 MR. GOLDBERG: Would you every consider flipping 1 31
1that to a military program?
2 MR. OTAIBA: Absolutely not. Absolutely not.
3In fact, we've gone to great lengths in our nuclear
4program and in the 123 Agreement with the United States to
5prove and commit to everyone that this is purely for
6energy production needs, and it's the only nuclear program
7in the World that is within its, both policy, its nuclear
8law, and our 123 Agreement have voluntarily forgone the
9right to enrich uranium or reprocess plutonium. And those
10are the only two mechanisms to really convert a civil
11nuclear program into a military nuclear program.
12 We've said, to prove to the world that we have
13no intention we're willing to do away with it in exchange
14for a fuel cycle from international standards. So the UAE
15is seeking energy. Our energies actually forecast -- our
16energy demand is forecasted to double by the year 2020.
17And short of the energy supplies that we have, we had to
18go for nuclear energy, so that's the reason why we
19embarked on that program. But I think the other countries
20will like the ambiguity of having a civil program that may
21or may not eventually go into a nuclear power --
22 MR. GOLDBERG: So you're talking about the 1 32
1potential, the greatest explosion in nuclear proliferation
2in history in the world's most volatile region.
3 MR. OTAIBA: Absolutely.
4 MR. GOLDBERG: That's the day after.
5 MR. OTAIBA: Absolutely.
6 MR. GOLDBERG: Let me come back to this one
7question, do you think President Obama gets that?
8 MR. OTAIBA: I do, I really do.
9 MR. GOLDBERG: You do.
10 MR. OTAIBA: I really do. But to be honest, I
11think President Obama has inherited the worst hand any
12president in the United States has inherited in recent
13history.
14 (Applause)
15 MR. OTAIBA: So I am not --
16 MR. GOLDBERG: Go back and tell, give a couple
17of reasons.
18 MR. OTAIBA: I like the people in the back
19because it seems like they're the only ones listening --
20 MR. GOLDBERG: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
21 (Laughter)
22 MR. GOLDBERG: No they're -- no, it's not -- no, 1 33
1it's that they're all from Abu Dhabi. You don't
2understand that, they've been flown in from Abu Dhabi,
3special, for this lunch.
4 MR. OTAIBA: Now, I think President Obama has
5inherited two very difficult campaigns in Afghanistan and
6Iraq. He has inherited the worst financial crisis since
71929. He is now dealing with what seems to be an
8unfixable oil spill, not just environmentally, but
9economically, from an energy standpoint. So President
10Obama has his hands full.
11 Do I think he recognize the threat from Iran?
12Yes, I do. Do I think he has very limited options and not
13necessarily a lot of ability to fix it? Yes. I think
14President Obama is just constrained with the lack of
15resources and tools at his disposal. And if he's heard
16anything from the Arab leaders that he talks to, most of
17them, and I'm fairly sure that King Abdullah when he was
18here mentioned the same thing.
19 For him to really make progress on the Iran
20issue and to deal with extremism and to deal with
21terrorism in the region, to deal with radicalized home-
22grown terrorism in the U.S., you need to address the peace 1 34
1process. That is the one core issue everyone tends to
2blame, and that's what the people hang all their problems
3on.
4 Well, the Palestinians are, you know, they are
5-- they don't have a country, they are abused, they are
6oppressed, and the U.S. always sides with Israel. So the
7sooner U.S. appears to be objective and impartial and
8create a Palestinian state, we take that argument away
9from everyone, and that is in everyone's best interest.
10 MR. GOLDBERG: Why would that stop Iran from
11developing a nuclear weapon?
12 MR. OTAIBA: It won't stop. It will get you all
13the Arab countries more aligned on containing Iran because
14now they use Palestine as an excuse, and the Palestine
15issue is a deep political problem. And I'm not saying
16it's only the U.S.' fault, I'm saying it is as much Israel
17and Palestine's fault for not making any progress on it
18themselves. But lack of their kind of commitment, the U.S.
19needs to step in and say, you need to do this. And you
20need to do this for your sake, for our sake, and for the
21region's sake.
22 MR. GOLDBERG: Let me -- we're going to go to 1 35
1questions in a couple of minutes, but let me just ask one
2final question, which is a sort of refinement of the would
3you support an American military action against Iran.
4Would you support an Israeli military action against Iran?
5Because you have for the first time in history, there is a
6hopeful kind of moment here buried under this sort of
7apocalyptic moment, which is that you have the interests
8of Arab moderate states and Israel aligning, vis-à-vis
9Iran in a way that they've never aligned before.
10 That's a problem because you haven't seen -- you
11would think that that would cause some progress in the
12peace process and it hasn't, but you have this natural
13alignment. So the question is, would you support,
14secretly or not secretly, an Israeli strike on an Iranian
15nuclear program --
16 (Laughter)
17 MR. OTAIBA: I'm glad we're finishing off with a
18light question.
19 (Laughter)
20 MR. GOLDBERG: Yeah.
21 MR. OTAIBA: Now, let me answer it this way.
22Iran -- a military attack on Iran by whomever would be a 1 36
1disaster. But Iran with a nuclear weapon would be a
2bigger disaster.
3 MR. GOLDBERG: I think that was a yes, but I'm
4not sure. But I'm not sure.
5 (Laughter)
6 MR. GOLDBERG: Why don't we go to questions
7because I'm sure there is a lot of things that we haven't
8covered. There is only a mike here, so maybe what you can
9do is just stand up and scream and identify yourself and
10then scream.
11 MR. DEPP: John Depp (phonetic) (off mike)
12California. Thank you. You're an excellent
13representative --
14 SPEAKER: We can't hear.
15 SPEAKER: We can't hear.
16 MR. GOLDBERG: I'm going to repeat the question.
17 MR. DEPP: Two questions, maybe we're going to
18see battery-powered cars (off mike) maybe the natural oil
19is not going to keep increasing like everybody says. Is
20your country thinking about maybe you should be selling
21more oil rather than less because it's going to be worth
22less in --(off mike)? 1 37
1 MR. OTAIBA: That's a great question and thank
2you for the setup. That's good.
3 MR. GOLDBERG: Could you come on to the --
4repeat the question, so they could -- the question --
5 MR. OTAIBA: I'm only good at answering.
6 MR. GOLDBERG: The question was, if I understand
7it correctly, that with the increase in --
8 MR. DEPP: If we go to electric cars --
9 MR. GOLDBERG: If we go to electric cars, oil is
10not going to be worth as much, so why aren't you pumping
11more?
12 MR. OTAIBA: The UAE --
13 MR. GOLDBERG: That's a very optimistic question.
14 MR. OTAIBA: I go back to my earlier point and
15that is the UAE knows that the oil and gas resources we
16own are actually finite, and depending on which assessment
17you read, it's going to run out one day or another. What
18the UAE has done, and this is actually one of the things
19we're very proud of, is we have per capita, or per
20country, we have invested or allocated more money into R&D
21for clean energy than any country in the world.
22 We've committed $15 billion in the next 5 years 1 38
1to basically either acquire our clean energy companies or
2invest in R&D. And anyone who has heard of a company
3called Masdar, that's kind of the 800-pound gorilla on the
4clean air and the clean energy sector, and our view is in
5the 5 or 10 years Masdar will be one of the world's
6largest clean energy enterprises.
7 So we're working very hard. In fact, our policy
8is to -- we've mandated our governments to come up with a
9solution where by 2030 at least 7 percent of our energy
10generation comes from renewable energy, so that's a goal
11we've set for ourselves.
12 The other part of the answer I'd like to mention
13is, this is a very not well-known fact. The UAE produces
14about two-and-a-half million barrels of oil a day, not a
15single drop of it gets exported west. None of it goes to
16the U.S., Europe, anywhere west. All of our oil goes to
17Japan, Korea, and various other countries in Asia.
18 We take the revenues that we make from our oil
19sales east, and we invest it all around the world, much of
20it comes into the U.S. So the U.S. is actually a
21beneficiary of our oil revenues that we sell to east. In
22fact, the U.S. -- the UAE has, I can't mention the 1 39
1numbers, but a significant amount of investment in the U.S.
2In the last year alone, despite the financial crisis, UAE
3entities put at least $10 billion of investment into the
4U.S. in various projects.
5 One of them is a chip manufacturing facility in
6upstate New York that we are doing in conjunction with a
7company called AMD, and another $4.5 billion investment in
8CityCenter in Las Vegas with MGM, so that money went into
9the U.S. about last year when the economy was very, very
10difficult.
11 MR. GOLDBERG: And you're also giving $10
12billion to the Aspen Institute.
13 (Laughter)
14 MR. OTAIBA: Walter just raised his hand, yeah.
15 MR. GOLDBERG: And ticking up 10 million
16subscriptions to the Atlantic, by the way. Yes.
17 MS. HINCH: Marian Hinch (phonetic). I was
18wondering, you know, we hear in the West a lot about the
19-- (off mike). And we're told (off mike) will galvanize
20against anyone who attack Iran, that any (off mike) or the
21protestors in Iran will be squeezed because of an attack
22on Iran. Your (off mike) if someone -- I mean, it looks 1 40
1like (off mike) the savior of (off mike).
2 MR. OTAIBA: I think it's a cost-benefit
3analysis. We have --
4 MR. GOLDBERG: Did everybody hear the question?
5 SPEAKERS: No.
6 MR. GOLDBERG: The question has to do with the
7Arab -- with the so-called Arab Street. There is a common
8perception that any attack on Iran would be received very
9negatively by the Arab Street. What she is pointing out
10is that, what the ambassador is saying somewhat
11contradicts that perception in that there might be many
12Arabs who are pleased with some sort of military action
13against Iran.
14 MR. OTAIBA: Again, it's a cost-benefit
15analysis. And I think despite the large amount of trade
16we do with Iran, which is close to $12 billion, not as
17much as what we do with the U.S., there will be
18consequences and there will be a backlash and there will
19be problems in people protesting and rioting and very
20unhappy with that there is a outside force attacking a
21Muslim country. That is going to happen no matter what.
22 But if you're asking me, am I willing to live 1 41
1with that versus living with a nuclear Iran, my answer is
2still the same. We cannot live with a nuclear Iran. I am
3willing to absorb what takes place at the expense of the
4security of the UAE.
5 MR. GOLDBERG: Are there any questions from the
6Abu Dhabi delegation back there? Anybody have anything?
7Why don't you come up here and ask your question? While
8you're doing that, let me call on you back there real
9quick. Yeah.
10 MS. HINCH: What is your assessment (off mike)
11what's happening in (off mike) with the youth and all
12these groups that were against the elections, what is
13truly happening now?
14 MR. OTAIBA: I think this was -- the question
15was my assessment on what's taking place in Iran in terms
16of the resistance of the Green Movement and opposition
17that we saw in the -- since the last elections in June.
18And I was very amazed to see the amount of people who are
19willing to put their lives in danger by going out on the
20street, protesting and really expressing themselves
21against a regime that obviously had no qualms about
22oppressing them, putting them in jail, beating them, 1 42
1torturing them, raping them. They knew this was going to
2happen. They knew this was a risk the minute they stepped
3down on the street. And millions of people still did it.
4To me, that was very admirable.
5 Now, the status of it today. I was in the UAE 2
6months ago and I asked for a intel briefing on exactly
7that, on the status of the Green Movement and the internal
8political situation. And the first answer I got from my
9briefer was, the Green Movement is officially dead. It
10has absolutely no chance of being revived, people are
11staying in their homes, it has been officially suppressed.
12So it's sad to say.
13 But again, the regime was put in a corner after
14the elections. And what we saw is the mindset of the
15regime and what they're willing to do to preserve
16themselves. And this is a regime that is all about
17self-preservation and they're not reluctant to put their
18own people in danger or to put them in jail.
19 And this is exactly -- I go back to your earlier
20question, this is why a regime of that nature, with
21nuclear weapons, is simply unacceptable for us to live
22with. It's just not -- the United States may be able to 1 43
1live with it, we can't.
2 MS. HINCH: But they could have been beneficial
3for -- (off mike).
4 MR. OTAIBA: It's hard to say. That's --
5 SPEAKER: Repeat the --
6 MR. GOLDBERG: The question was, would it have
7been beneficial for the Green Movement if the U.S. had
8been more supportive or outspoken in its support?
9 MR. OTAIBA: It's hard to speculate, but I think
10the first thing the regime would have done if U.S. landed
11-- voiced its support publicly or privately was they were
12going to basically criticize the movement as being a
13western-backed movement. It no longer became an internal
14movement against the government, it became the west's idea
15or policy of really removing the government, and that
16would have immediately discredited the movement. So it
17was a tough decision.
18 I don't know if -- by standing -- by going to
19their support you would have helped them. There is a
20chance you may have actually hurt them as well, not that
21the result has been any different, but for better or
22worse, unfortunately, what we saw as an opportunity is no 1 44
1longer there.
2 MR. GOLDBERG: I think we have time for two more
3questions. There is -- yes, ma'am.
4 SPEAKER: (Off mike.)
5 MR. GOLDBERG: Let me repeat that. The question
6is, isn't it ironic that Israel might be, this is her word
7not mine, the savior of the Arabs -- never words that have
8come out of my mouth before -- for dealing in some sort of
9militant way with the Iranian program when they -- when
10Israel will be condemned afterward, I think, is what
11you're saying, for taking that -- condemned publicly for
12taking that same action.
13 MR. OTAIBA: Israel is already being condemned
14for everything they do anyway. I don't think it's fair,
15absolutely not.
16 SPEAKER: (Off mike.)
17 MR. OTAIBA: I think Israeli behavior drives a
18lot of reaction to Israel and to a lot of comments made by
19Israel. I hope that today's meeting with the president
20ends up being more successful. And I hope that the peace
21process gets back on track, because that's the only way
22Israel will put itself in a position where it's not 1 45
1constantly attacked.
2 Iran issue aside, Israel is, you know, lives in
3a very difficult neighborhood. And like ourselves, you
4know, we deal with the same threats. But I think it's
5important for Israel to recognize what its priorities are
6and what is in its best interests. And what is in best
7interests, I think, is a good relationship with the U.S.
8and eventually achieving a solution with the Palestinians
9so that the countries in the region can recognize it.
10 MR. GOLDBERG: And there was back there.
11 SPEAKER: (Off mike) do you think the Russians
12would step in if Israel attacks Iran (off mike) Russians
13have always wanted (off mike).
14 MR. OTAIBA: I don't know. It's a difficult
15question to speculate on also --
16 MR. GOLDBERG: That's above his pay grade.
17That's above his pay grade. There was a question all the
18way --
19 MR. OTAIBA: I haven't seen anything to lead me
20to believe that Russia will take a very more proactive --
21 SPEAKER: (Off mike.)
22 MR. GOLDBERG: All right. Let me just go, there 1 46
1is one question in the back. He's been waiting patiently,
2let me go there.
3 MR. OTAIBA: Yes.
4 SPEAKER: (Off mike) of the many things that you
5can (off mike) when you transform your economy to (off
6mike) can you talk a little bit more about that?
7 MR. OTAIBA: Can you repeat the question,
8because I didn't --
9 MR. GOLDBERG: The question was, why is clean
10energy the focus of your innovation economy?
11 MR. OTAIBA: Because, like I said, you know, oil
12is going to run out one day, and we won't have any gas or
13oil or crude to power up our power plants. You know,
14despite the financial crisis, our economy is still going
15to grow at a 3 percent -- 3 to 4 percent growth rate, and
16all our projects, and I know the media has debated which
17projects are continuing and which projects are cancelled,
18I can safely assure you that all the government-backed
19projects, all the infrastructure projects, the
20universities, the rail roads, the nuclear program, Masdar
21City these are, you know, very, very large price tag
22projects and they're all going on as planned. 1 47
1 Now, not only does that require a lot of money,
2but it also requires a lot of energy. And, like I said,
3the energy forecast for the UAE is set to double by the
4year 2020. And unless we start exploiting, you know,
5nuclear power, renewable power, we're not going to stand a
6chance to make -- to really enact our economic development
7policies. So it's a way of providing a tool to allow us
8to continue to grow the way we're planning to grow.
9 MR. GOLDBERG: This has been great. Thank you
10very, very much for coming. And thank you, Mr. Ambassador
11--
12 (Applause)
13 MR. GOLDBERG: Thank you very much --
14 MR. OTAIBA: Let me --
15 MR. GOLDBERG: Oh, wait.
16 MR. OTAIBA: Let me just -- one brief --
17 MR. GOLDBERG: He wants to say one more thing.
18 MR. OTAIBA: And it's not about the UAE. I
19would be remiss to not mention the wonderful hospitality
20that has been shown to us here by the Aspen Institute, by
21Walter and by Tony. So Tony, first, can you stand up, so
22I can embarrass you slightly? 1 48
1 (Applause)
2 MR. OTAIBA: And more importantly, Tony has
3worked tirelessly and very gracefully shepherded the first
4Aspen UAE initiative that will be launched in Abu Dhabi in
5October 4th, and we're bringing the Ideas Festival to the
6UAE. And the subject is going to be something that we
7both can relate to, "Creating a culture of innovation
8entrepreneurship."
9 So invitations will be going out. The weather
10in Abu Dhabi in October is kind of like Aspen in July. So
11we hope you can join us and come see our country. Thank
12you very much.
13 MR. GOLDBERG: Thank you very much.
14 (Applause)
15 * * * * *