Region of Waterloo Cambridge to Union GO Rail Feasibility Study PHASE 2 REPORT Final – February 2021 Dillon Consulting Limited | Hatch Ltd. City of Cambridge to Union Station GO Train Feasibility Study – Final Report | Region of Waterloo Dillon Consulting Limited | Hatch Ltd. Page intentionally left blank City of Cambridge to Union Station GO Train Feasibility Study – Final Report | Region of Waterloo Dillon Consulting Limited | Hatch Ltd. Table of Contents Executive Summary ..................................................... i Connecting Cambridge to GO Rail Service ........................................................................ i The Regional Context ...........................................................................................................ii Selection of a Station Location ..........................................................................................iii Service Scenarios ................................................................................................................. iv Strategic Case...................................................................................................................... vii Deliverability and Operations .......................................................................................... viii Financial and Economic Considerations .......................................................................... x Comparison with the Milton Extension Alternative .......................................................xv Summary & Next Steps .................................................................................................... xvii 1.0 Introduction ........................................................ 1 1.1 Study Background .................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Scope and Purpose ................................................................................................ 3 1.3 Overview of Study Approach ................................................................................ 4 2.0 Connecting Cambridge to Regional Rail: Context and Rationale ..................................................................... 6 2.1 Problem Statement ................................................................................................ 6 2.2 Key Drivers .............................................................................................................. 6 2.3 Constraints and Concurrent Initiatives Overview .............................................. 7 2.4 Key Stakeholder Engagement............................................................................... 7 2.5 Fergus Subdivision Corridor Today...................................................................... 8 2.6 Proposed Station in Cambridge – A Review........................................................ 8 3.0 Fergus Subdivision Service Scenarios ............. 14 3.1 Background and Context .................................................................................... 14 3.2 Methodology and Assumptions ......................................................................... 15 3.2 Service Scenario Development ........................................................................... 19 3.3 Phasing and Delivery ........................................................................................... 22 3.4 Ridership Forecasting .......................................................................................... 23 4.0 Strategic Case .................................................. 31 City of Cambridge to Union Station GO Train Feasibility Study – Final Report | Region of Waterloo Dillon Consulting Limited | Hatch Ltd. 4.1 Overview and Evaluation ..................................................................................... 31 5.0 Economic Feasibility ......................................... 36 5.1 Overview and Approach ...................................................................................... 36 5.2 Impact Assessment .............................................................................................. 36 5.3 Economic Feasibility Summary ........................................................................... 40 6.0 Deliverability and Operational Feasibility ..... 44 6.1 Overview ................................................................................................................ 44 6.2 Background and Context .................................................................................... 44 6.3 Key Opportunities and Risks ............................................................................... 46 6.4 Rolling Stock ......................................................................................................... 47 6.5 Constructability .................................................................................................... 52 6.6 Governance and Operations .............................................................................. 70 6.7 Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 72 7.0 Financial Feasibility .......................................... 73 7.1 Overview ................................................................................................................ 73 7.2 Cost Analysis ......................................................................................................... 73 7.3 Revenue Potential ................................................................................................ 76 7.4 Financial Feasibility Summary ............................................................................ 79 8.0 Comparison with the Milton Corridor ............ 80 9.0 Summary and Next Steps ................................ 84 9.1 Key Findings of Feasibility Review ...................................................................... 84 9.2 Next Steps ............................................................................................................. 90 Appendix A: Station Location Alternatives Evaluation Appendix B: Service Level and Travel Time Assumptions Appendix C: Ridership and Revenue Forecasting Methodology Appendix D: Fergus Subdivision Track Assessment Appendix E: Economic Benefits and Financial Summary Appendix F: Capital Expenditure Summary City of Cambridge to Union Station GO Train Feasibility Study – Final Report | Region of Waterloo Dillon Consulting Limited | Hatch Ltd. Tables Table 2-1 Short-Listed Station Candidate Locations .................................................... 9 Table 2-2 Candidate Station Evaluation Results .........................................................11 Table 3-1 Total All-stop trip times from the Pinebush ION Rapid Transit Station to Guelph and Union Station ............................................................18 Table 3-2 Cambridge-Guelph Rail Service Options ....................................................20 Table 3-3 Service Scenarios for Ridership Forecasting ..............................................24 Table 3-4 Daily Weekday Ridership Forecast (Scenario 2A) ......................................28 Table 4-1 Comparison of Cambridge-Guelph and Cambridge-Milton Connections to GO Service ............................................................................34 Table 4-2 Policy Alignment Summary for the Pinebush ION Rapid Transit Station ..............................................................................................................34 Table 5-1 Transportation User Impacts Summary .....................................................37 Table 5-2 Wider Economic Impacts Summary ............................................................40 Table 6-1 Rolling Stock Travel Times ...........................................................................51 Table 6-2 Grade Crossings along the Fergus Subdivision. ........................................53 Table 6-3 Grade Crossings along the Guelph Line (Not Exhaustive). ......................58 Table 6-4 Transport Canada Track Classes and Associated Maximum Allowable Operating Speeds ..........................................................................58 Table 7-1 Capital Cost Technology Comparison Summary .......................................74 Table 7-2 Total Operating Expenditure for each Service Option .............................76 Table 7-3 Revenue Estimates for all Ridership Scenarios .........................................78 Table 8-1 Comparison of Projected Ridership on Milton and Guelph Corridors (2031) ..............................................................................................83 Table 8-2 2031 Annual Review Comparison with Milton Corridor Options ............83 City of Cambridge to Union Station GO Train Feasibility Study – Final Report | Region of Waterloo Dillon Consulting Limited | Hatch Ltd. Figures Figure 1-1 Key Elements of Phase 1 and 2 of the Study ................................................ 4 Figure 2-1 Map of the Five Candidate GO Transit Station Locations Considered in Cambridge ........................................................................................................ 10 Figure 2-2 Catchment Area for the Pinebush ION Rapid Transit Station .................. 13 Figure 3-1 Illustration of plausible future service on the Kitchener line and a future connection from Guelph to Cambridge on the proposed Cambridge-Guelph line. .....................................................................................