UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA – SAN DIEGO No More Mr. Niche Guy: Multidimensional Issue Voting in Proportional Electoral Systems A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Matthew Edward Bergman Committee in charge: Professor William Chandler, Co-chair Professor Matthew Shugart, Co-chair Professor James Adams Professor Maureen Feeley Professor Isaac Martin 2016 Copyright Matthew Edward Bergman, 2016 All rights reserved. The Dissertation of Matthew Edward Bergman is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm and electronically: Co-Chair Co-Chair University of California, San Diego 2016 iii DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to the memory of Professor Ellen Comisso. She was devoted to making the radical seem mundane, imbuing the controversial with an air of normalcy. It is with this spirit that the dissertation presented here so continues. In addition, I would like to dedicate this dissertation to my grandparents: Irene & Eugene Citerman and Eileen & Norman Bergman. I cannot help but wonder if the intellectual spark that has driven my research is rooted in genetics. As they have shared and dedicated their support, commitment to education, and inquisitive minds with me, I, in return, dedicate this dissertation to them. iv EPIGRAPH “He will find that as he alters his thoughts toward things and other people, things and other people will alter towards him.” - James Allen, British Philosopher v TABLE OF CONTENTS Signature Page.............................................................................................................. iii Dedication.................................................................................................................... iv Epigraph....................................................................................................................... v Table of Contents......................................................................................................... vi List of Supplemental Files........................................................................................... ix List of Figures.............................................................................................................. x List of Tables................................................................................................................ xi Acknowledgments........................................................................................................ xii Vita............................................................................................................................... xviii Abstract of Dissertation................................................................................................ xix Chapter 1 Mainstreaming The Agenda......................................................................... 1 1.1 Preface............................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Introduction....................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Argument, Significance, and Contributions...................................................... 8 1.4 Dissertation Outline.......................................................................................... 11 Chapter 2 The Electoral Effects of a “Normal” Niche Party....................................... 16 2.1 Valence Issue Voting.......................................................................................... 16 2.2 Issue Salience & Associative Issue Voting......................................................... 18 2.3 Translating Issue Ownership to Votes Choice.................................................... 20 2.3.1 Competence Issue Ownership..................................................................... 20 2.3.2 Party Identification...................................................................................... 22 2.3.3 Varying Ownership Claimants.................................................................... 24 2.4 Party Policy Shifts and the Static Niche Party Assumption .............................. 26 2.4.1 The Niche Party Families............................................................................ 27 2.4.2 Consequences of Policy Shifts.................................................................... 28 2.4.3 The Niche Continuum................................................................................. 31 2.5 A New Interpretation – A “Normal” Niche Party that can compete on the Economic Dimension............................................................................................... 33 vi 2.6 The Not-So-Radical Right: From Demand to Supply-Side Explanations.......... 35 2.7 Potential New Constituents................................................................................ 37 2.7.1 Employed Women....................................................................................... 37 2.7.2 Left-Authoritarians...................................................................................... 39 2.7.3 Welfare Chauvinists.................................................................................... 41 2.7 A Multiparty Caveat........................................................................................... 42 2.8 Testing the “Normal” Niche Hypothesis............................................................ 46 Chapter 3 Issue Mainstreaming and Niche Party Success........................................... 49 3.1 Introduction........................................................................................................ 49 3.2 Literature Review and Hypotheses.................................................................... 50 3.2.1 The Niche Party Profile............................................................................... 50 3.2.2 Niche Party Success.................................................................................... 52 3.2.3 The Competitive Issue Market.................................................................... 54 3.2.4 Party System Size........................................................................................ 57 3.3 Data & Operationalization................................................................................. 59 3.4 Descriptive Statistics.......................................................................................... 66 3.5 Empirical Results............................................................................................... 71 3.5.1 Specialization Results................................................................................. 72 3.5.2 Uniqueness Results..................................................................................... 78 3.6 Discussion.......................................................................................................... 82 3.A Appendix............................................................................................................ 87 Chapter 4 A (Minor) League of Their Own: Partisan Sorting of Conservative Italian Voters............................................................................................................................ 88 4.1 Introduction........................................................................................................ 88 4.2 Models of Voting Behavior................................................................................ 90 4.2.1 Valence Considerations: Party and Leader Characteristics and Issue Ownership ........................................................................................................... 91 4.2.2 Voting for Niche Parties.............................................................................. 93 4.2.3 Voting in Context of Coalitions................................................................... 95 4.3 Hypotheses......................................................................................................... 97 vii 4.4 The Italian Case.................................................................................................. 100 4.5 Data and Method................................................................................................ 107 4.5.1 Method – Sequential Logistic Regression................................................... 108 4.5.2 Data and Measurement................................................................................ 109 4.6 Findings.............................................................................................................. 112 4.6.1 Coalition and Party Choice......................................................................... 112 4.6.2 Total Effects................................................................................................ 114 4.7 Discussion.......................................................................................................... 120 4.7.1 Changing Coalition Rules, Changing Coalition Roles................................ 122 Chapter 5 It's the Economy, Suomi: An Issue-Based Analysis of the 2011 Finnish Parliamentary Election................................................................................................. 126 5.1 Introduction........................................................................................................ 126 5.2 Personal Issue Salience and Electoral Representation....................................... 127 5.3