Lake Sidney Lanier Economic Impact Analysis December, 2010 Prepared for the 1071 Coalition Prepared by Bleakly Advisory Group, Inc. Bruce A. Seaman, Ph.D. PBS&J, Inc. MISSION STATEMENT 1071 Coalition is a non-profit organization comprised of citizens, civic groups, businesses and other entities dedicated to maintaining water levels in Lake Sidney Lanier that sustain water supply, recreation, and economic prosperity through the advocacy of appropriate, science- based water releases necessary for the ACF river basin. The research reported here was funded in part by a grant from the Appalachian Regional Commission. Final Report LAKE SIDNEY LANIER ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS Table of Contents Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................... i Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ 1 I. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 15 A. Study Purpose and Objectives ..................................................................................................... 15 B. Economic Effects of Lake Management Policies .......................................................................... 16 1. Overview .................................................................................................................................. 16 2. Economic Impact Analysis ........................................................................................................ 17 3. Regional versus National Economic Effects ............................................................................ 18 C. Study Scope and Methodology .................................................................................................... 19 D. Organization of the Report .......................................................................................................... 20 II. Background and Trends ................................................................................................................... 22 A. Study Area Context ...................................................................................................................... 22 B. Overview of ACF Basin Management .......................................................................................... 24 C. Historical Lake Lanier Water Levels ............................................................................................. 26 Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 27 D. Visitor Trends ............................................................................................................................... 28 Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 32 E. Marina Sales ................................................................................................................................. 33 F. Boat Sales and Ownership ............................................................................................................ 34 1. Personal Property Value .......................................................................................................... 34 2. Boat Registrations .................................................................................................................... 36 G. Real Estate Values ....................................................................................................................... 40 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 40 2. Calculation of Lakefront Real Estate Value Premiums ............................................................. 41 3. Short-Term Impacts of Low Water Levels on Lakefront Property Sales .................................. 45 H. Marina Slips and Private Docks ................................................................................................... 46 I. Summary Conclusions ................................................................................................................... 48 III. Impacts of Lake Levels on Recreational Spending .......................................................................... 50 A. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 50 B. Survey Findings ............................................................................................................................ 50 Table of Contents i Final Report LAKE SIDNEY LANIER ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS 1. Resident and Visitors Survey .................................................................................................... 51 2. Business Survey ........................................................................................................................ 53 3. Summary of Survey Conclusions .............................................................................................. 56 C. Estimation of Direct Economic Impacts ........................................................................................... 56 1. Visitor Spending ....................................................................................................................... 57 2. Marina Slip Renters and Private Dock Owners ........................................................................ 59 3. Estimated Impacts attributable to Lake Levels versus Other Factors ..................................... 60 4. New and Used Boat Sales......................................................................................................... 61 5. Real Estate Impacts .................................................................................................................. 62 6. Summary Conclusions: Direct Impacts ..................................................................................... 65 IV. Economic Impacts ........................................................................................................................... 67 A. Overview ...................................................................................................................................... 67 B. Impact Analysis Findings .............................................................................................................. 69 C. Summary Conclusions: Economic Impacts .................................................................................. 77 V. Water Supply and Other Issues ....................................................................................................... 80 A. Comparative Downstream Populations and Employment ......................................................... 81 1. Overview .................................................................................................................................. 81 2. Population and Employment ................................................................................................... 83 3. Selected Industries ................................................................................................................... 87 4. Summary .................................................................................................................................. 97 B. Municipal and Industrial Water Supply ...................................................................................... 98 1. CDM Study Summary and Conclusions .................................................................................... 98 2. Georgia Water Task Force Study Summary ............................................................................. 99 3. Summary Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 100 VI: Appendix ....................................................................................................................................... A-1 Table of Contents ii Final Report LAKE SIDNEY LANIER ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS Executive Summary In 2009, the 1071 Coalition funded a study to calculate the economic impacts arising from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ (USACE) management of water levels at Lake Sidney Lanier, located in Northwest Georgia. The goal of the study is to provide a quantitative measure of the economic impacts of low lake levels on the economies of the counties bordering the Lake, the Metro-Atlanta Region and the State of Georgia. The scope of research included an extensive literature review, collection of background information and primary research in the form of web-based surveys. The Consultant team was able to assemble and analyze extensive historical data on lake levels, visitation, recreational spending, boat registrations, marina incomes, property values and related information. These findings are reported in Chapter II. That information was used to estimate the direct and indirect economic impacts associated with documented reductions in visitor spending during the period of historically low lake levels in 2008. Economic impacts are addressed in Chapters III and IV. The final Chapter V of the report addresses economic impacts associated with broader water