U.S. POLICY TOWARD EURASIA AND THE ROLE OF THE U.S. CONGRESS May 27 – June 2, 2019 | Prague, Czech Republic U.S. POLICY TOWARD EURASIA AND THE ROLE OF THE U.S. CONGRESS The Aspen Institute Congressional Program May 27 – June 2, 2019 Prague, Czech Republic TABLE OF CONTENTS Rapporteur’s Summary Matthew Rojansky .............................................................................................................. 3 U.S. Policy Toward Eurasia and the Role of the U.S. Congress Thomas Graham ...............................................................................................................17 Getting America Off the Backfoot in Eurasia Evan A. Feigenbaum .........................................................................................................23 Does BRI Really Exist? Robert Daly ......................................................................................................................29 China’s Rise as a Geo-Economic Influencer in Eurasia Philippe Le Corre ...............................................................................................................39 It’s Time to Rethink Russia’s Foreign Policy Strategy Dimitri Trenin ...................................................................................................................47 Is Russia a U.S. 'Adversary' or Just a 'Competitor'? Developing a Sustainable, Realistic U.S. Policy Towards Russia Nikolas K. Gvosdev ............................................................................................................59 The Russia-China Partnership in Eurasia and the Trans-Atlantic Response Stacy Closson ...................................................................................................................65 China as a Copycat of the Practices of Russian Influence in Central and Eastern European Members of the EU and NATO Ivana Karásková ...............................................................................................................69 How America Invented Cyberwar Emily Parker .....................................................................................................................73 Conference Participants .....................................................................................................77 Conference Agenda ...........................................................................................................79 1 2 RAPPORTEUR’S SUMMARY Matthew Rojansky Director, The Kennan Institute, The Wilson Center Seventeen Members of Congress survived wars and occupations, yet which met in Prague, Czech Republic May 27— has lost a great deal as well. Of some June 2, 2019 for briefings and discussions 150,000 Jews who were a central part of on U.S. interests, challenges and Czech life before World War II, only 5,000 opportunities in Eurasia, a region remain today—the vast majority killed in the encompassing much of the globe, most U.S. Nazi Holocaust, with many of the few allies, as well as major adversaries. This survivors (including the family of former meeting followed an Aspen-organized U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright) conference approximately one year ago that fleeing Soviet occupation afterward. Having was focused principally on Russia in the survived and defeated two occupations in European theater, as well as a meeting the past century, Czechs feel justifiably earlier this year on U.S Policy toward China. proud of their more recent achievements: NATO and European Union membership, Prague was a fitting backdrop for impressive economic growth, and economic these conversations in several key links with the wider world, including China. substantive respects. From its myth- shrouded founding over a millennium ago, The challenges faced in the Czech Prague has been a city at the crossroads of Republic today were likewise fitting European and Eurasian civilizations. Celtic, reminders of the broader themes of this German, Roman, Austrian, Polish, Russian gathering. The current government, and other rulers have held sway, whether despite its avowed commitment to Western from the ancient and lovely Prague Castle institutions, maintains warm and friendly on a hill overlooking the city (now the ties with both Russia and China—these official residence of the Czech President) or were very much in evidence from the from distant imperial capitals. The Czechs billboards in the airport arrival hall to the themselves have regained their lost droves of Russian and Chinese tourists in independence twice in the past century— the city streets. Moreover, nearly three and they credit an American President, decades after winning their independence Woodrow Wilson, for the vision to support and splitting from Slovakia in the so-called Czechoslovak statehood in the aftermath of “velvet divorce,” Czechs are still struggling the First World War. with fundamental questions about national identity, democracy, and their future as a In any given year, Prague itself small country in an increasingly fractious attracts more tourists than it has permanent and dangerous world. As a member of the residents—they flock to see a city whose Czech parliament told his U.S. colleagues, magnificent architecture has miraculously 3 Prague’s European and Western choice has particularly focused on the related but been made, but that means Czech voters distinct challenges posed by Russia and have high expectations that their leaders China, which some called “near peer” cannot always match. adversaries of the United States. One scholar characterized the two as major Eurasian Geopolitics and Great Power challenges but said they should not be Dynamics: Why it Matters lumped together, since China is a rising The conversation began with power focused on the future, and hoping to important reminders about the truly global overtake the United States, while Russia is a scope of Eurasia, which 19th Century British declining power that seeks to bring the geographer Halford MacKinder called, “the United States down to its level. World Island.” It is a region with three Scholars explained that despite continents, one third of the world’s land some divergences, China and Russia could mass, seventy percent of its population, pursue a strategic alignment as long as sixty percent of gross domestic product both were committed to calm along their (GDP), and eight of nine nuclear weapons extended shared border in Central Asia, and states. Thus, the scholar concluded, control both were more focused on projecting of Eurasia might well amount to power over power and influence outward, principally in the whole world, and this has given rise to a competition or confrontation with the United longstanding and bipartisan U.S. policy to States. Although Russia did not necessarily prevent any hostile power or group of offer a coherent or attractive future vision powers from occupying such a role. to its Eurasian neighbors, scholars Scholars also recalled that Eurasia explained, it had strong historical ties and has become considerably more political, military, economic and social interconnected in recent decades, and they leverage over many states in the region. urged members to think in terms of the China, while not yet seeking to project its region as a whole, rather than constituent full power in the direction of Russia and sub-regions or nation-states. This stove- Central Asia, has begun to offer solutions to piping of regional expertise, policymaking the region’s geographic isolation from the and U.S. capabilities, one scholar lamented, high seas and the global economy by has limited the effectiveness of U.S. funding large-scale infrastructure diplomacy and defense strategy in Eurasia. construction. For instance, Middle East issues, which fall Members wondered whether a under U.S. Central Command, cannot easily Russia-China alignment of interests could be separated from South Asian or Central last long, in particular whether it could Asian Issues, which sometimes fall under outlast the regimes of Vladimir Putin and Xi U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, or even under Jinping, respectively. Scholars countered European Command if they involve Russia. that waiting for authoritarian leaders to Despite clear trend lines toward pass from the scene was not a basis for economic integration in Eurasia, security U.S. leadership in the region, and that such concerns are forcing difficult and often an approach would cede the initiative to fragmenting choices on the states in the Moscow and Beijing. region, including U.S. allies like Japan and Members raised the question of South Korea. Scholars and members were whether the U.S. had the necessary 4 capacity not only to push back against degree, scholars warned, this is already Russia and China, but to understand and taking place. engage with the disparate small and large Several members pointedly said that states of this enormous world region. their constituents just didn’t care about far Scholars confirmed that reductions in U.S. off problems and abstract questions about State Department staffing and assistance “world order.” Some resented extensive budgets had set U.S. foreign policy off and costly U.S. international commitments balance, with the much better funded U.S. at a time when the American middle class is military too often in the lead. Scholars suffering, while others saw China mostly as likewise recommended that Americans play an opportunity, bringing investment and to strengths like an attractive, innovative new jobs to U.S. communities. One U.S. economy, robust alliances,