Timetable of Events Monday 23rd March 13:00 Registration of delegates (George Fox Foyer). 15:00 Afternoon Tea (George Fox Foyer). 16:00 Opening Address & Plenary Session (George Fox Building). 16:00 Opening Address: Amanda Chetwynd 16:15 Plenary Talk I: David Hand 17:00 Plenary Talk II: Peter Diggle 19:00 Dinner (County South Restaurant). 20:00 Traditional Pub Quiz (County Restaurant Bar). Tuesday 24th March 08:00 Breakfast (County Restaurant). 09:10 Session 1 (George Fox Building). 10:45 Refreshments (George Fox Foyer). 11:10 Session 2 (George Fox Building). 13:10 Lunch (George Fox Foyer). 14:10 Session 3 (George Fox Building). 15:10 Poster Session and Refreshments (George Fox Foyer). 16:20 Session 4 (George Fox Building). 18:00 Dinner (County Restaurant). Evening Entertainment 19:00 First Bus Collection from Underpass to City Centre (Cinema & Castle Tour) 19:30 Second Bus Collection from Underpass to City Centre (Bar) 22:30 First Bus Collection from Lancaster Infirmary to Lancaster Campus 00:00 Second Bus Collection from Lancaster Infirmary to Lancaster Campus 00:30 Third Bus Collection from Lancaster Infirmary to Lancaster Campus 1 Wednesday 25th March 08:00 Breakfast (County Restaurant). 09:10 Session 5 (George Fox Building). 10:45 Refreshments (George Fox Foyer). 11:10 Session 6 (George Fox Building). 13:10 Lunch (George Fox Foyer). 14:10 Session 7 (George Fox Building). 15:45 Sponsors’ Wine Reception (George Fox Foyer). Conference Dinner. 18:30 First Bus Collection from Underpass to Dinner 19:10 Second Bus Collection from Underpass to Dinner 20:00 Dinner and Ceilidh 23:45 First Bus Collection to Lancaster Campus 00:30 Second Bus Collection to Lancaster Campus Thursday 26th March 08:00 Breakfast (County Restaurant). 10:00 Delegates Depart. 2 Contents 1 Welcome from the Organisers 6 2 The City and University 7 3 Campus Map 9 4 University Facilities 10 5 Accommodation at County College 11 6 Conference Details 12 6.1 Meals . 12 6.2 Sponsors’ Wine Reception . 12 7 Help, Information and Telephone Numbers 13 7.1 Computing and Internet Access . 13 8 Plenary Session 14 8.1 Professor Amanda Chetwynd (Lancaster University) . 14 8.2 Professor David Hand (Imperial College London) . 15 8.3 Professor Peter Diggle (Lancaster University / John Hopkins University) 16 9 Instructions 17 9.1 For Chairs . 17 9.2 For Speakers . 17 9.3 For Displaying a Poster . 18 9.4 Prizes . 18 10 List of Sponsors’ Talks 19 11 Talks Schedule 20 11.1 Monday 23rd March . 20 11.2 Tuesday 24th March . 21 11.3 Wednesday 25th March . 26 12 Talk Abstracts by Session 30 12.1 Tuesday 24th March . 30 12.1.1 Session 1a: Experimental Design . 30 12.1.2 Session 1b: Non-Parametric . 32 12.1.3 Session 1c: Probability . 35 12.1.4 Session 2a: Environmental . 37 12.1.5 Session 2b: Computational . 40 12.1.6 Session 2c: Medical I . 43 12.1.7 Session 3a: General I . 46 12.1.8 Session 3b: Dimension Reduction . 48 3 12.1.9 Session 3c: Genetics and Systems Biology I . 49 12.1.10 Session 4a: Operational Research . 51 12.1.11 Session 4b: Time Series . 52 12.1.12 Session 4c: Diffusions . 54 12.2 Wednesday 25th March . 57 12.2.1 Session 5a: Genetics and Systems Biology II . 57 12.2.2 Session 5b: Spatial . 59 12.2.3 Session 5c: General II . 61 12.2.4 Session 6a: General III . 64 12.2.5 Session 6b: Multivariate Statistics . 66 12.2.6 Session 6c: Medical II . 69 12.2.7 Session 7a: Clinical Trials . 72 12.2.8 Session 7b: Financial . 74 12.2.9 Session 7c: General IV . 76 13 Poster Abstracts by Author 78 14 RSC 2010: Warwick University 88 15 Sponsors’ Advertisements 89 16 RSC History 103 17 Delegate List 104 4 1 Welcome from the Organisers Welcome to the 32nd Research Students’ Conference in Statistics and Probability (RSC 2009). This year the conference is hosted by Lancaster University. The RSC is an annual event aiming to provide postgraduate statisticians and probabilists with an appropriate forum to present their research. This four day event is organised by postgraduates, for postgraduates, providing an excellent opportunity to make con- tact and discuss work with other students who have similar interests. For many students this will be your first experience of presenting your work, and some of you will have the opportunity to chair a session. For those of you attending and not presenting, we hope that you will benefit greatly from observing others and networking with researchers working in a similar field. Finally, I would like to give warning that we will be looking for potential hosts of RSC in 2011. If you think your group would be suitable to hold the event and would be keen to take part in such an exciting project, please let me know. Next year the conference will be held in Warwick. Please enjoy the conference and Lancaster, Matt Sperrin Head Conference Organiser 5 2 The City and University Lancaster Lancaster is the county town of Lancashire in the north west of England. It is the seat of the Duchy of Lancaster and much of the land is owned by Her Majesty the Queen, who also holds the hereditary title Duke of Lancaster. The town, which became a city in 1937, has a long history which stretches back to pre-Roman times. The Norman castle, which was originally built as a fortification against the Scots, stands in good repair and is still used as both a court and a prison. Once known as ‘The Hanging Town’ because more prisoners were sentenced to death here than at any other court in the land, it is famous for the trial of the Lancashire Witches. In the 18th century Lancaster was an important port as the town was then acces- sible to sea-going ships. Tidal changes resulted in the silting up of the river estuary and nowadays only small boats can sail so far up the River Lune. Most of the fine buildings in the city date from this era of prosperity and the boom in the cotton and slave trade with Africa and the USA. The University Lancaster University was established in 1964, when it was granted its Royal Charter. Since then it has expanded both in size and reputation. There are now over 10,000 students studying in departments that are recognised nationally and internationally for the quality of their research and teaching. The origins of the university lie in the years following the Second World War, as the future of further and higher education became an important concern of the British government. The government faced immense problems as it tried to cope with the demands of an expanding population and the advent of a new technological age. After the war, there were only nine universities and less than 1000 full time students in the country. Between 1958 and 1961, this balance was redressed as 7 new universities were announced; one of these was Lancaster University. In the 1960s, the North-West had more than 7 million inhabitants so it is easy to see why a third university was proposed for the region. The first Vice Chancellor of Lan- caster University, Charles Carter made a somewhat tongue-in-cheek comment about why the university was built, when he stated that the people in London wanted a new university in this area in order to “civilize the North.” In addition to Lancaster’s bid, other towns such as Morecambe and Blackpool displayed an interest in the new university. However, Lancaster was thought to be a peaceful area for study, with a rich cultural heritage and plenty of facilities for potential students and members of staff. Lancaster was one of the last of ‘new’ universities to be authorized by the gov- ernment. Princess Alexandra became the Chancellor of the University and was inau- gurated in 1964. The ceremony also saw the granting of various honorary degrees to amongst others, the new Prime Minister Harold Wilson. Wilson delivered his speech only a short time after his election win with the Labour party. 6 The University accepted its first students in October 1964. The motto adopted by the new university was “Patet omnibus veritas” which means “Truth Lies Open to All” reflecting the hope that the expansion of higher education would lead to the extension of education to all. The colours of the university are red and Quaker grey, the latter reflecting the strong Quaker presence in the town and region. Lancaster University is based upon a collegiate system and is one of only six colle- giate universities in the country. The new university wanted to encourage interaction between students with varied interests. This was also encouraged by the creation of residences where both students and staff could live and work together. The colle- giate system has had a significant influence upon the university body. It has helped to forge a strong sense of identity amongst staff and students alike and continues to be one of the defining features of student life at Lancaster. In recent years, a major program to build new accomodation and refurbishment existing facilities has begun. This will be followed by building work for Lancaster University Masterplan 2007–2017, envisioning improved access across the Univer- sity with enhanced greenery and the construction of 27 new buildings, largely for academic use. It will cost an estimated £420 million. In the academic year 2008–2009 work will begin on a new Management School building, new social space and a £21 million sports centre.