HLIB Research PP 9484/12/2012 (031413) Greater KL’s Catalytic Developments MARKET VIEW 14 December 2016 Game changer or spoiler? Highlights . Boosting Greater KL. Greater KL is the most populated region in Jeremy Goh, CFA Malaysia with 7m people (26% of the nation). Since 2010, 9 [email protected] projects under the Economic Transformation Program (ETP) have (603) 2168 1138 kick started in Greater KL. Its public transport system is being improved via the BRT, LRT ext, MRT 1&2 and HSR. Road Jason Tan, CFA connectivity will also be enhanced through new highways such as [email protected] DASH, SUKE and DUKE3. (603) 2176 2751 . Rise of catalytic developments. As a result of Greater KL’s rejuvenation, several large scale catalytic developments have Lee Meng Horng emerged. These include the Tun Razak Exchange (TRX), Warisan [email protected] Merdeka, Bukit Bintang City Centre (BBCC), Bandar Malaysia, (603) 2168 1121 Kwasa Damansara and Cyberjaya City Centre (CCC). Collectively, these 6 catalytic developments have a GDV of at least RM275bn over 3,355 acres of land. Catalytic developments . Backed by the government. All the catalytic developments have Development Acres GDV (RM bn) government participation as the master developer, be it directly Tun Razak Exchange 70 40 (e.g. MoF) or indirectly via its related entities (e.g. EPF and PNB). Warisan Merdeka 19 5 As such, we reckon that much effort will be accorded to ensure its Bukit Bintang City Centre 19 9 success. Tax incentives will be given for developments such as TRX and Bandar Malaysia. Take up rates will also be supported by Bandar Malaysia 486 160 the relocation of government offices there (e.g. EPF relocating its Kwasa Damansara 2,620 50 HQ to Kwasa Damansara and PNB to Warisan Merdeka). Cyberjaya City Centre 141 11 . The age of TOD. These catalytic developments will be integrated Total 3,355 275 to a public transport network, giving them an advantage as Transit Source: HLIB estimates Oriented Developments (TOD). The case of KL Sentral as a TOD is anecdotal evidence on the importance of public transport Potential construction winners connectivity towards a development’s success. We believe the Stock Rating Price Target appeal of TODs will be even more prevalent once the MRT1 is IJM BUY 3.37 3.92 WCT HOLD 1.80 1.99 completed in July 2017. Pesona BUY 0.585 0.81 Mitrajaya BUY 1.23 1.95 . Positive for construction. Assuming 50% of GDV constitutes Sector SunCon BUY 1.70 1.93 Impact construction cost, these catalytic developments would present Pintaras Not Rated 3.50 n.a. contractors with RM137bn worth of jobs to undertake over the next Econpile Not Rated 1.85 n.a. 20 years. Potential beneficiaries are (i) WCT and Gadang for their Ikhmas Not Rated 0.58 n.a. track record in earthworks, (ii) IJM, Pesona, Mitrajaya and SunCon for urban high rise buildings and (iii) pilling contractors such as Potential property and REIT losers Pintaras, Econpile and Ikhmas Jaya. Stock Rating Price Target MQREIT BUY 1.30 1.34 . Negative for property… KL city is experiencing a potential excess KLCCSS BUY 7.81 8.35 supply situation within the condo and office segments. Traditional UOA Dev Not Rated 2.30 n.a. developments will have to compete with the catalytic ones which have an edge as TODs and government backing. Nonetheless, most developers under our coverage have a diversified product mix spread across several states. For risk of concentrated exposure, we highlight UOA within the office segment. …and REITs as well. KL city’s retail space per capita (17sq ft) is already above Bangkok (9 sq ft) and Singapore (12 sq ft). Additional malls under the catalytic developments will further increase this, capping upside to rental reversion. Despite this, established malls in prime locations such as Pavilion (PREIT) and Suria KLCC (KLCCSS) should continue stay relevant. On offices, the influx of new space will place downward pressure on occupancy and rent. MQREIT has 80% of its revenue from office and KLCCSS at 44%. Page 1 of 21 14 December 2016 HLIB Research | Greater KL Catalytic Developments www.hlebroking.com Prelude Enter Greater KL. Klang Valley is an area centred in Kuala Lumpur (KL) along with its adjourning cities and towns in Selangor. Rebranded in recent times as Greater KL, the Greater KL is the most area covers 2,793 sq km and is governed by 10 local authorities. It is Malaysia’s most populated region in M’sia populated region with 7.2m people or 26% of the national population. Greater KL’s population is projected to hit 10m by the turn of the decade. Figure #1 Area coverage of Greater KL PEMANDU Key area under ETP. In Sept 2010, Malaysia’s Economic Transformation Programme Several ETP projects have (ETP) was launched with the aim to elevate it to a “developed nation” status by 2020 been implemented in Greater with GNI per capita of US$15k. Greater KL has been identified as one of the ETP’s KL National Key Economic Areas (NKEA) which targets to achieve the top-20 ranking in city economic growth while also being the global top-20 most liveable cities by 2020. A total of 9 Entry Point Projects (EPPs) have been identified for Greater KL. Figure #2 Entry Point Projects (EPP) for Greater KL Entry Point Project (EPP) 2020 GNI (m) Jobs Status Attracting 100 of the world's most dynamic firms 41,441 234,001 Operational Attracting internal and external talent 118,212 560 Operational Connecting KL to Singapore via HSR 6,224 28,700 WIP Building an integrated urban MRT system 24,630 20,000 WIP Revitalising Klang and Gombak rivers 4,281 17,041 WIP Greening Greater KL 992 2,817 Operational Creating iconic places and attractions 460 13,500 WIP Creating a comprehensive pedestrian network 6 279 Operational Efficient solid waste management system 157 NA WIP PEMANDU Enhancing connectivity. Greater KL’s public transport landscape is currently Transportation upgrade via undergoing a massive upgrade. This began with the completion of the Sunway BRT in June 2015, followed by the Ampang and Kelana LRT extensions totalling 35km in June BRT, LRT ext, MRT1&2, HSR, 2016. Phase 1 of the MRT1 (Sg Buloh-Kajang) is set to be finished by Dec 2016 and DASH, SUKE and DUKE3 fully operational by July 2017. For the MRT2 (Sg Buloh-Serdang-Putrajaya), major contracts have been awarded and work has begun. Lastly, implementation of the High Speed Rail would greatly enhance connectivity between KL and Singapore. In terms of road networks, major highways such as DASH (Damansara-Shah Alam), SUKE (Sg Besi-Ulu Kelang) and DUKE3 (Setiawangsa-Pantai) are being implemented. Page 2 of 21 14 December 2016 HLIB Research | Greater KL Catalytic Developments www.hlebroking.com Figure #3 Public transport lines in Greater KL SPAD Rise of catalytic developments. As a result of the various EPPs and enhanced public transport network, we note the emergence of several large catalytic developments in Catalytic developments: Greater KL. These include the Tun Razak Exchange (TRX), Warisan Merdeka, Bukit TRX, Warisan Merdeka, Bintang City Centre (BBCC), Bandar Malaysia, Kwasa Damansara and Cyberjaya City BBCC, Bdr M’sia, Kwasa Centre (CCC). Collectively these 6 developments have a GDV of at least RM275bn D’sara and CCC over 3,355 acres of land. All of them have some degree of government participation as master developer, be it directly or indirectly via its related entities. As such, we reckon that much effort (e.g. tax incentives) will be accorded to ensure its success. Another common characteristic is that these developments will be integrated to a public transport network (e.g. MRT), making them Transit Oriented Developments (TOD). In this report, we explore the significance of these catalytic developments and its potential impact to 3 key sectors – construction, property and REITs. Figure #4 Greater KL’s catalytic developments Development Master Developer Acres GDV (RM bn) Tun Razak Exchange MoF via TRX City 70 40 Warisan Merdeka PNB 19 5 Bukit Bintang City Centre Eco World (40% ), UDA (40% ), EPF (20% ) 19 9 Bandar Malaysia IWH-CREC (60% ), MoF (40% ) 486 160 Kwasa Damansara EPF via Kwasa Land 2,620 50 Cyberjaya City Centre MRCB (70% ), MoF via Cyberview (30% ) 141 11 3,355 275 Media sources, development websites Page 3 of 21 14 December 2016 HLIB Research | Greater KL Catalytic Developments www.hlebroking.com Highlights Tun Razak Exchange KL’s next financial district. Launched by the Prime Minister in July 2012, the Tun Razak Exchange (TRX) sits on a 70-acre land plot located at KL’s southern gateway. KL’s next financial district is The development aspires to be KL’s financial and business district with GDV of an ext of the Golden Triangle RM40bn over a period of 15-20 years. Essentially, TRX can be viewed as an extension of KL’s Golden Triangle with direct connectivity via the largest MRT interchange station (Line 1 and 2) and major highways such as SMART, MRR2, Jln Tun Razak, Jln Bukit Bintang and Jln Sultan Ismail. TRX has been identified as a strategic priority for Malaysia and a special task force has been assembled to facilitate its execution. Figure #5 Location of TRX TRX Shareholding reshuffling. Previously, the master developer for TRX was 1MDB Real TRX no longer 1MDB, Estate (1MDB-RE), a subsidiary of 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) which in turn, directly under MoF is wholly owned by the Ministry of Finance (MoF). However, following a minor shareholding reshuffling, 1MDB-RE was renamed to TRX City and is now directly owned by the MoF with no ties to 1MDB.