CATALYST BRIEF APRIL 2019 Carlos Martín Olivia Arena About Urban’s Next50 The Urban Institute was founded 50 years ago by President Lyndon B. Johnson to provide “power through knowledge” to help solve the problems that weighed heavily on the nation’s hearts and minds. Today, we’re exploring promising solutions to advance equity and upward mobility and identifying what transformational leaders need to know to drive forward groundbreaking ideas. This brief is one of our eight-part Catalyst series, in which we share what it would take to advance bold solutions over the next 50 years. We are grateful to Citi Foundation for its generous support of Urban Next50. ABOUT THE URBAN INSTITUTE The nonprofit Urban Institute is a leading research organization dedicated to developing evidence-based insights that improve people’s lives and strengthen communities. For 50 years, Urban has been the trusted source for rigorous analysis of complex social and economic issues; strategic advice to policymakers, philanthropists, and practitioners; and new, promising ideas that expand opportunities for all. Our work inspires effective decisions that advance fairness and enhance the well-being of people and places. Copyright © April 2019. Urban Institute. Permission is granted for reproduction of this file, with attribution to the Urban Institute. Cover image by John Wehmann. Contents Acknowledgments iv Advancing Solutions: Local Action and Investment, Advocacy, and Private-Sector Innovation 4 Solution Set 1: Adopt Inclusive Climate Decisionmaking Processes 5 Solution Set 2: Expand Existing Tools for Addressing Physical Disruptions 9 Solution Set 3: Adopt More Comprehensive Site Adaptations 12 Solution Set 4: Relocate to a Safer Location 14 Building Knowledge Changemakers Need 16 Priority 1: Assess the Needs and Framework for a Climate Safety Net 17 Priority 2: Uncover Individual and Household Risk Perceptions and Behaviors 18 Priority 3: Measure Inclusive Engagement and Equitable Outcomes 20 Priority 4: Monitor and Build Local Capacity and Leadership 22 Priority 5: Evaluate the Effects of Climate Governance and Property Law Change 23 Priority 6: Integrate Multiple-Risk Scenarios into Population and Provider Projections 25 Priority 7: Develop Tools for Calculating Value 27 Notes 29 References 31 About the Authors 33 Statement of Independence 34 Acknowledgments To produce this report, Urban engaged a diversity of changemakers in the climate adaptation field. These experts, advocates, practitioners, and policymakers are working to advance adaptation solutions and elevate local and national focus on the issues ahead. Through a series of conversations, these changemakers proposed knowledge gaps that keep innovators in the field from advancing change and discussed new solutions to the most challenging adaptation problems in the country. The authors extend a special thanks to the changemakers who directly engaged in this process through one-on-one conversations with the report authors: Ángela Andrar, Climate Justice Alliance Lauren Alexander Augustine, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Jason Babbie, Natural Resources Defense Council Debra Ballen, Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety Robert Bullard, Texas Southern University Arietta Chakos, Urban Resilience Strategies Anita Chandra, RAND Amy Chester, Rebuild by Design Helen Chin, Surdna Foundation Shannon Cunniff, Environmental Defense Fund Natasha DeJarnett, American Public Health Association William Fleming, University of Pennsylvania Ian McHarg Center Karen Florini, Climate Central Billy Grayson, Urban Land Institute Alex Kaplan, Swiss Re Nuin-Tara Key, California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research Carolyn Kousky, Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center Joseph Majkut, Niskanen Center Rebecca Mandelman, Miami Foundation Cynthia Mellon, Climate Justice Alliance Susan Gilbert Miller, County of Santa Clara Raul Moas, Knight Foundation Robert Moore, Natural Resources Defense Council Lori Peek, Natural Hazards Center IV NEXT50 CLIMATE Thomas Ruppert, Florida Sea Grant Kristin Scheyder, Citi Foundation Jasneet Sharma, County of San Mateo Dawn Shirreffs, Miami Foundation Ed Thomas, National Hazard Mitigation Association Anna Weber, Natural Resources Defense Council Roy Wright, Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety The authors also were invited to participate in various workshops, conferences, and discussions by these experts during which they could tap into the insights from additional participants. These events included the Environmental and Climate Justice Workshop at the 109th NAACP Convention (July 17, 2018, in San Antonio, Texas); the Global Climate Action Summit (September 12–14, 2018, in San Francisco, California); and the Adaptation Blueprint and Closing the Gap on Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Conferences (September 28 and November 9, 2018, respectively, at the University of Pennsylvania). At a roundtable discussion on October 10, 2018, local grassroots activists at the frontlines of climate change effects in the United States shared their perceptions on challenges and solutions. This group’s comments provided essential guidance for this report’s details and overall approach to the climate adaptation crisis. The authors express their deep debt and gratitude to these participants for their time, generosity, and leadership: Zelalem Adefris, Catalyst Miami Colette Pichon Battle, Gulf Coast Center for Law & Policy Lois DeBacker, Kresge Foundation Tiffany Eng, California Environmental Justice Alliance Diana López, Southwest Workers Union Atyia Martin, All Aces, Inc. Sona Mohnot¸ Greenlining Institute Jacqueline Patterson, NAACP Amee Raval, Asian Pacific Environmental Network Kandi White, Indigenous Environmental Network NEXT50 CLIMATE V What would it take to make sure all families can live in a physically secure home and a stable community that’s prepared for the effects of global climate change? Thoughtful and thorough preparations for the disruptive effects of global climate change can provide a range of options for communities and households that would respect their historical assets, current and potential levels of social cohesion, desires for their own life outcomes, and opportunities for collective action. In some cases, whole communities may defend themselves against climate’s effects with major new infrastructure and land planning. Other communities may deploy more nuanced combinations of programs, policies, and services, from community emergency networks to alternative housing and transport. A few communities may choose to relocate en masse away from the riskiest climate change effects. In all cases, people and communities should exercise meaningful voice and power over decisions about where, how, and how much to adapt to local climate effects. Regardless of the combination of physical and social interventions communities adopt, inclusion and equity must be fundamental to both the process of selection and the outcomes of the options selected. Global climate change is profoundly disruptive, bringing more frequent and severe weather events, rising sea levels, chronic precipitation extremes, increased vector-borne disease, and higher ambient temperatures.1 All regions of the United States are being physically transformed and without massive economic and policy change, these unwelcome transformations will continue unabated. Communities built decades ago face unprecedented challenges, yet some continue to grow and develop land in places that evidence suggests are in harm’s way. American communities are far behind others on the globe in preparing for climate change effects, and they are likely to experience greater pains to catch up. The United States provides almost no examples of implemented climate adaptation solutions (Anguelovski and Carmin 2011). And even fewer solutions have focused on the historical inequities between groups living in the same geographic boundaries or on the likely disparate impacts on these groups from adaptation decisions (Kresge Foundation 2018). Philanthropies, state and local governments, and federal agencies have begun to consider the consequence of already-observable climate effects on US communities in the last decade (HUD 2014; Kresge Foundation 2015).2 But they need evidence about how the work of disaster mitigation, climate change adaptation, and local infrastructure and regional planning can be woven into equitable climate resilience over the next 50 years: Federal and state policymakers working to create a reliable climate safety net lack information about coverage gaps (and redundancies) and intersections between public assistance and private insurance programs. Systematic assessments of needs, vulnerabilities, and coverage across the full range of public and private assistance services and programs would enable these policymakers to strengthen existing programs and develop new ones that emphasize preventative measures over recovery and compensation. The effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies hinges on the choices of individuals (such as residential location and design choices or insurance take-up). But policymakers know little about how individuals understand and respond to evolving climate risks or how they respond to incentives, regulations, and even immediate environmental hazards. Policymakers need rigorous evidence about individual risk perceptions and behaviors to support effective adaptation strategies that work with private-sector