u People u Transportation u Opportunity FINAL DRAFT • August 11, 2021 Table of Contents DRAFT PLAN 2050 • August 11, 2021 CHAPTER 1: Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2: Public Involvement.............................................................................................. 11 CHAPTER 3: Context and Trends ............................................................................................. 20 CHAPTER 4: Transportation System Performance................................................................... 34 CHAPTER 5: Strategies and Implementation ........................................................................... 56 CHAPTER 6: Environment ....................................................................................................... 90 CHAPTER 7: Financing Plan 2050........................................................................................... 105 CHAPTER 8: Moving Forward ................................................................................................ 123 PROJECT INDEX .................................................................................................................... PI-1 APPENDICES – available at njtpa.org/plan2050 APPENDIX A: Background Papers Active Transportation in the NJTPA Region Climate Change and Transportation The COVID-19 Pandemic and North Jersey Freight Transportation Technology APPENDIX B: System Performance APPENDIX C: Regional Capital Investment Strategy APPENDIX D: Public Outreach APPENDIX E: Demographic Forecasts APPENDIX F: Congestion Management Process APPENDIX G: Transportation Demand Management Plan APPENDIX H: Air Quality Conformity Determination APPENDIX I: Local Concept Development This publication is financed by the Federal Highway Administration and Federal Transit Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation. The NJTPA is solely responsible for its contents. Final Draft Plan 2050 Chapter 1 ‐ Introduction Transportation. People. Opportunity. These themes are the focus of this plan and the work of the NJTPA. They signify not only the goal of investing wisely to improve the roads, rails and other infrastructure, but to shape these investments to meet the needs of transportation users and support a thriving, sustainable regional economy for the benefit of all. Those themes have deep roots in the work of the NJTPA in its three‐decades‐long history as the region’s Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO). But, today, emerging from the tumultuous and life‐altering events of 2020‐2021 ‐‐ pandemic, social isolation, racial reckoning and environmental threats ‐‐ the themes take on new and different meanings and prompt us to explore new priorities for the future of transportation. This plan inaugurates those efforts, though many uncertainties remain about the long‐term impacts of recent events. At the same time, this plan is one of continuity, carrying out NJTPA’s responsibilities and mandates for ensuring the safe and efficient functioning of the extensive transportation system serving North Jersey which forms the foundation for the regional economy and quality of life. Policies and investments in this plan will set the trajectory for future development of the region and its transportation system—stretching out to this plan’s horizon of 2050. Transportation, People, Opportunity North Jersey’s multimodal transportation network is a vital economic asset. In many ways, it is a defining feature of our region, which is home to the largest marine port on the east coast; a major international airport; one of the nation's busiest roads (the New Jersey Turnpike) and rail lines (the Northeast Corridor); the nation’s third largest mass transit network; and freight rail yards that are the end point of transcontinental supply chains and more. In recent years, the daily onslaught of cars, trucks, and buses travelling the road network has resulted in severe congestion in some locations, hampering commerce and commuting, and causing growing safety and environmental concerns. While the mass transit system offers a convenient alternative for many trips, constrained funding has left it struggling to meet demand. All aspects of the transportation system are hampered by aging infrastructure. And, not all segments of the population share equally in the benefits of transportation access. These problems have demanded attention and investment — $2 billion or more annually in recent years – and this plan discusses much more that needs to be done. Still, judging by transportation performance in recent years, by‐and‐large the system has worked well in its essential functions, underpinning the region’s dynamic economy and supporting the lives and livelihoods of the region’s residents. The transportation system makes possible future growth and progress – the “opportunity” that is a central theme of this plan. Chapter 1 ‐ Introduction 1 Final Draft Plan 2050 Yet the pandemic and other events, as noted, have presented challenges that require changes in how the transportation system is planned, managed and financed. Some of these changes can be made immediately, while others may take years to fully address. Among the new realities: The pandemic has raised public health to a top concern, prompting new public health protocols for transit systems and requiring new designs and standards for workplaces. Some employers have come to rely on remote work arrangements, resulting in fewer commuters, which has reduced revenues, particularly for transit. New recognition has been given to addressing the needs of essential workers— many of whom work with low pay and inadequate benefits. The impacts of inequality and racial discrimination have gained new national attention, with minority and low‐income families suffering disproportionately from both the virus and the economic downturn, and protests nationwide demanding action on racial injustice and institutional discrimination. The pandemic greatly increased e‐commerce, adding delivery traffic to local roads, challenging freight logistics and altering industrial real estate markets. The growing impacts of climate change have added urgency to efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, particularly the large share the transportation sector contributes. Along with these and other complex challenges, there have been some decidedly hopeful developments, relevant to this plan’s themes: People have rediscovered streets in their communities for dining, recreation, and other activities, giving new impetus to “complete streets” designs that serve all modes and people. More people have been walking, biking and using other “active” transportation to get around, reducing dependence on vehicles and encouraging them to spend more time shopping and socializing in their communities. People have embraced technology in new ways including greatly expanded remote work, online education, virtual doctor visits and e‐commerce. This may help remove transportation barriers for people with mobility limitations and bode well for acceptance of emerging transportation technologies. While the pandemic exposed some divisions in society, for many people the shared experience has bolstered their civic spirit, with increases in volunteering and charitable giving. It also prompted many organizations and companies to help those in need, make commitments to undo racial discrimination and take action on climate change. The impacts and implications of all this are still unfolding. Throughout this plan, NJTPA takes the initial steps to integrate lessons and insights from 2020‐21 into its vision for the future. Chapter 1 ‐ Introduction 2 Final Draft Plan 2050 A FUTURE VISION Transportation, underpinning the regional economy, must be more efficient, safer, more responsive to changing needs and conditions and environmentally sustainable. People, in all the region’s communities, must be the focus of transportation policy and investments, aimed at equitably enhancing options and access and removing barriers. Opportunity, in all its facets – for realizing healthy and fulfilling lifestyles, for expanding jobs and commerce, for enhancing access to education, housing, and other needs – must continue to be pursued as the ultimate goal of all transportation policy and investment. Developing the plan This plan fulfills federal requirements for MPOs like the NJTPA, which must update long‐range plans every four years as a condition to receive federal transportation funding. This requirement in federal law (23 CFR 450) reflects the need for transportation investments to be based on a comprehensive “continuing, cooperative, and comprehensive” (3C) assessment of long‐term needs planning process that provides “for the development of an integrated multimodal transportation system … to facilitate the safe and efficient movement of people and goods in addressing current and future transportation demand.” It recognizes that infrastructure improvements made today can last and serve the public for a generation or more to come. The NJTPA’s goals and federal guidance (see sidebar [at end]) helped shape the content of this plan. In keeping with the people‐focus of this plan, extraordinary efforts were undertaken during the plan’s development to gather input from the region’s residents and users of the transportation system. While the pandemic made public outreach more challenging, it also opened new opportunities for residents who cannot easily go to physical events. More