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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Russian Foreign Policy Sources and Implications Olga Oliker Keith Crane Lowell H. Schwartz Catherine Yusupov Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Russian foreign policy : sources and implications / Olga Oliker ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4607-9 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Russia (Federation)—Foreign relations. 2. Russia (Federation)—Strategic aspects. 3. Globalization—Political aspects—Russia (Federation) 4. Russia (Federation—Politics and government—21st century. 5. Russia (Federation)— Foreign relations—United States. 6. United States—Foreign relations—Russia (Federation) I. Oliker, Olga. DK293.R8726 2009 327.47—dc22 2009006826 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Eileen La Russo. (Photographs, clockwise from top: AP Images/Sergey Ponomarev; AP Images/Misha Japaridze; AP Images/Dmitry Lovetsky.) © Copyright 2009 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2009 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface As Russia’s economy has grown, so have the country’s global involve- ment and influence. Often, this involvement and influence take forms that the United States neither expects nor likes, as the August 2008 conflict between Russia and Georgia demonstrated. In the United States, policymakers and analysts face an imperative to understand what U.S. interests in Russia are and how they might develop as Rus- sia’s own approaches become more defined. Despite the two countries’ many disagreements and the rising tension between them, the United States and Russia share some key interests and goals. This study, conducted within RAND Project AIR FORCE’s Strat- egy and Doctrine Program, assesses Russia’s strategic interests and the factors that influence Russian foreign policy broadly. It examines Rus- sia’s domestic policies, economic development, and views of the world. U.S. interests are then considered in that wider context. We hope that this assessment generates a better understanding of Russia’s viewpoints and thus informs U.S. policy option choices. The research was spon- sored by the United States Air Forces in Europe, Director, Plans and Programs (USAFE-A5/8). It presents the results of the study “The View from Moscow: A Strategic Assessment.” This monograph should be of interest to policymakers and ana- lysts involved in international security and U.S. foreign policy, par- ticularly U.S. policy toward Russia. It will also be of interest to Russia watchers all over the world. Note that the analysis in this monograph is based on more than a year of research, which included travel to Russia and extensive interviews with a wide range of specialists. Research in iii iv Russian Foreign Policy: Sources and Implications support of this monograph was completed in spring 2008. Some mate- rial was updated, however, as late as January 2009. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Cor- poration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and devel- opment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the devel- opment, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train- ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site: http://www.rand.org/paf Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments .............................................................. xxi Abbreviations .................................................................. xxiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 A New Russia ....................................................................... 1 Russia’s Security Outlook ......................................................... 2 U.S. Security Interests ............................................................. 3 Research Approach ................................................................. 4 Sources of Russian Foreign Policy ............................................. 4 Methodology ..................................................................... 6 Monograph Outline ............................................................... 7 CHAPTER TWO Russia’s Domestic Situation .................................................... 9 Politics in Putin’s Russia: Centralization and Control ......................... 9 A Strong Executive ............................................................... 9 Parliament and Political Parties ...............................................11 The Judiciary ....................................................................13 Regional Governments .........................................................15 Redistributing Assets: Russia, Inc. ............................................16 Societal and Political Implications ............................................18 Decisionmaking and Succession in the Kremlin ............................21 v vi Russian Foreign Policy: Sources and Implications Russia’s New President .........................................................25 Threats from Within: Domestic Security Issues .............................. 28 Population Change Poses Economic and Cultural Threats ................29 Demographic Change and Russian Identity .................................35 Policy Toward Islam and Violence in the North Caucasus ................39 Russian Public Opinion ..........................................................41 Implications of Domestic Threats for Foreign Policy ........................ 42 CHAPTER THREE Russia’s Economy and Russian Resources for Defense ...................45 Outlook for the Russian Economy ..............................................45 The Recovery ....................................................................45 Energy and the Russian Economy ............................................47 Russia’s Economic Future: Continued, but Slower, Growth ...............55 Threats to Growth ..............................................................58 The National Budget ...........................................................61 Defense Spending .................................................................63 Current and Past Spending ....................................................63 Future Spending ................................................................69