Helsinki-Tallinn Transport Link Feasibility Study – Final report Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary ................................................................................................6 1.1. Technical concept .........................................................................................................................6 1.2. Cost estimation ............................................................................................................................ 7 1.3. Estimation of demand ................................................................................................................. 7 1.4. Cost-benefit analysis ..................................................................................................................8 1.5. Economic Impacts of FinEst Link ................................................................................................8 1.6. Wider economic impacts .............................................................................................................9 1.7. Planning objectives ......................................................................................................................9 1.8. Strategic positioning ..................................................................................................................10 2. Introduction ...........................................................................................................12 3. Ferry Traffic Solution 0+ ...................................................................................... 14 3.1. Past Development .......................................................................................................................14 3.2. Recent Traffic Patterns ..............................................................................................................14 3.2.1. Vessel Traffic ...................................................................................................................14 3.3. Other Routes between Finland and Estonia ............................................................................15 3.4. 0+ Option ....................................................................................................................................15 3.4.1. General ...........................................................................................................................15 3.4.2. Traffic Investments in Ports ..........................................................................................16 3.4.3. 0+ Current Facilities ......................................................................................................16 3.4.4. 0+ Cargo to Vuosaari and Muuga ...............................................................................17 3.4.5. 0+ All Ferry Traffic to Vuosaari and Muuga ................................................................17 3.4.6. 0+ Other Ports ...............................................................................................................18 3.4.7. 0+ Modern Technologies ..............................................................................................18 3.5. 0+ Summary and Conclusions ..................................................................................................18 4. Geology ..................................................................................................................19 4.1. Readings ..................................................................................................................................... 22 5. Fixed Link Tunnel Solution .................................................................................... 23 5.1. Tunnel Concept........................................................................................................................... 23 5.2. Alignment Study ........................................................................................................................ 27 5.3. Maintenance and operation .....................................................................................................31 6. Tunnel safety management .................................................................................. 33 7. Train operation concept ........................................................................................35 7.1. Volume Estimations ....................................................................................................................35 7.1.1. Passenger Volume Estimations ......................................................................................35 7.2. Passenger train traffic ..............................................................................................................40 7.3. Car & truck shuttles and conventional freight trains ...............................................................41 7.4. Terminals and depots ...............................................................................................................43 8. Strategic Environmental Assessment ..................................................................44 9. Economic and Financial Feasibility Study ............................................................47 9.1. Infrastructure investment cost estimation ...............................................................................47 9.2. Operation and maintenance cost ............................................................................................48 10. Cost – benefit analysis .......................................................................................49 10.1. Investment and Maintenance .................................................................................................49 10.2. Consumer Surplus, Passenger Transport ..............................................................................50 10.3. Producers Surplus, Passenger Transport ...............................................................................51 10.4. Cargo Transport .......................................................................................................................51 10.5. Externalities..............................................................................................................................52 10.6. Sensitivity Analysis ...................................................................................................................53 11. Wider Impact Analysis .........................................................................................55 11.1. Framework and Methods .........................................................................................................55 11.2. Assumptions of Economic and Demographic Developments .............................................57 11.3. Agglomeration Impacts ...........................................................................................................58 11.4. Competition Impacts ................................................................................................................62 11.5. Summary of Wider Impact Analysis .......................................................................................63 11.6. Sensitivity Analysis ....................................................................................................................64 11.7. Economic Land Use Impacts ....................................................................................................64 11.8. Effects of Construction on Employment .................................................................................65 11.9. Visions on the Cross-Border Integration and Structural Changes .....................................66 12. Risk Management ................................................................................................68 13. Benchmarking .....................................................................................................70 13.1. Technical benchmarking ..........................................................................................................70 13.2. Economical benchmarking ..................................................................................................... 73 13.3. Benchmarking conclusions and issues to consider ..............................................................75 14. New technologies ................................................................................................76 14.1. General ......................................................................................................................................76 14.2. Evaluation of the proposals ....................................................................................................78 14.3. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................82 15. Financing model evaluation ................................................................................83 15.1. Alternative Project Contract And Ainancing Models .............................................................83 15.2. Alternative Risk Allocation Models .........................................................................................85 15.3. Issues To Consider Regarding Financial Structure ..............................................................86 16. Financial modelling .............................................................................................88 16.1. Financial modelling assumptions ............................................................................................88